Nate Silver's Oscar Predictions

New York Magazine:

After spending most of 2008 predicting the success of political actors--also called politicians--it's only natural that Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight.com) would turn his attention to the genuine article: the nominees in the major categories for the 81st Annual Academy Awards (Feb. 22 at 8 p.m. on ABC). Formally speaking, this required the use of statistical software and a process called logistic regression. Informally, it involved building a huge database of the past 30 years of Oscar history. Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards. We also looked at whether being nominated in one category predicts success in another.

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Read the whole story: New York Magazine

Comments

[minty68]

Best Supporting Actress prediction seems like a bit of a stretch. The others are believable, though.

[rzan1]

Penelope Cruz will win. Meryl Streep should win.

[Truye]

I would either like Slumdog or Milk to walk away with the prize (I actually liked Milk better, but it was a close race in between that, Slumdog and The Wrestler..­.And Kung Fu Panda, but that's another story)

However I have this bad feeling that Benjamin Button is going to win. I don't know why I think that, but it could have to do with my deep distrust of the Academy.

And of course Kate is gong to win! It's a movie about WWII! GIVE KATE HER OSCAR! (heehee, I haven't seen The Reader, I just saw Kate on "Extras" and if this doesn't do it she might have to go that extra step...)

And a side note, I think Hellboy II should win for best make-up. Button had good make-up, but much of it was CGI'ed, and I don't rate that. Hellboy II used barely any CGI when it came to the make-up and it has an amazing craftsmanship to it. I am blown away everytime.

[GuyFawkes]

Methinks Nate's winning streak ends Monday night. No way he's right about supporting actress. No way. It will be Cruz or Davis.

[Quilter]

I'd love to see Rourke win. The Wrestler delivered a visceral cinematic experience. Mickey Rourke created an iconic character on par with Rocky Balboa. That performance was for the ages.

[FrancescaM]

They'll give it to Marisa Tomei and everybody will go WTF like before.

[aphid]

Tomei is a wonderful actress who by now has proven she has real acting chops. I didn't, however, think her performance in TW was out of this world. Pretty workmanlike in my view.

[KoolAidAmerica]

Taraji P Henson was awful
Give it to Viola or Amy

[Thordeer]

Betting sites have their take on this, too. The price you need to pay for a $100 contract (that pays off $100 if you win the bet) essentially gives the percent chance of winning.

Go to www.intrade.com and click on entertainm­ent--acade­my awards for the bettors' view of things.

[Steamboater]

Slumdog will win Best Pic although "Milk" deserves to win but Sean Penn will win Best Actor. His performance was incredible and he deserves it. Rouke is too much of an actor stuck in a box. He can't play varying roles as Penn can and has and actors and directors know it. Penelope Cruz will easily take Best Supporting Actress too. Although I'd like to see Meryl Streep win even if her performace was a bit over the top, Kate Winslet will grab this one for Best Actresss. She was very good but Streep just captures your attention in no matter what she does. Just love her!

[DruggyBear]

'Milk' was a bland by-the-book bio pic and any of the other actors attached to the part over the years (Robin Williams, Steve Carell, Richard Gere, Daniel Day-Lewis) would have been as good as Penn. Slumdog deserves best pic and Rourke deserves best actor. Milk's nominations are enough reward for that film, almost too much.

[jerrycurls]

Nonsense.

Slumdog has to be, far and away, the most overrated film of the past twenty or thirty years. I agree it was good, but you'd think it was Gone With The Wind or something --- it isn't. It's "Rocky" set in the slums of India.

Either all the other films were really bad, or critics and awards people are real drunk of some powerful kool-aid.

[DruggyBear]

I hope Mickey does indeed pull out the win, he gave such an amazing performance. Penn was good too, but any decent actor could have excelled in that showy role.

[Steamboater]

Since you think Mickey Rourke is more than a decent actor, you really think he could have played Milk? It took an exceptional actor to play that part and Penn is exactly that.

[walk0nwalls]

But Sean already won and Mickey was seriously exceptional in "The Wrestler"

[DruggyBear]

when he was younger certainly, now his face is all messed up from the boxing and surgeries. now could penn have played randy the ram? i don't think so, it wouldn't have been authentic.

[Giada]

Buzz ... prior to the event. I would like to see Penn win. I thought his performance excellent. I'd also like to see Streep take the award for best actress, yet personally, I think Winslet was equally good.

Best supporting ... they were all good, yet I favor Cruz for the win.

Ledger was good in TDK but I believe he'll be remembered for Brokeback Mountain. It was his signature performance.

[1sparrow]

heath will get it deservedly. slumdog will get it -the best movie in 5 years. but even though i'm not an angelina fan, her work in the changeling was dead on brilliant. the movie was underrated as well. finally, Milk- a masterpiece, for the director, for the concept of the period and characters, for the whole ball of wax but- mostly for sean penn. i will hurt physically if he doesn't receive the best acting job in a very long time.

[Coloradem]

Spot on with two exceptions: Sean Penn should win for Milk (just about the only role he's done that I would say he didn't overact in) and Viola Davis should win for Doubt. Her performance is one of the best ever captured on film. She turned in the best performance of the year....

[amoore503]

Heath was great as the twisted Joker but Robert Downey Jr. made me laugh from beginning to end in Tropic Thunder. He should win!

[4fathers]

nate is dead-on on all his picks except two: best actor and best actress. i'm not saying they can't win but i'd place those at 50/50 at best.

the fact that penn won the SAG award gives him a clear advantage over rourke, because the SAG voting block is the biggest voting block and only they vote in the acting categories, same goes for directing and and writing and cinematography. plus, throughout it's history, hollywood as given the award for best acting to roles in advocacy films, gregory peck in to kill a mockingbird and tom hanks in philadelphia just to name two. right now i'd be betting on penn.

also, although i think winslet is a clear front-runner for best acting, she did lose the sag award, and there is a growing black-lash against the film the reader as perhaps being sympathetic too sympathetic to an SS officer. thus, you could see an upset with streep walking away with the award, i would not be surprised if it happened.

[jerrycurls]

Wrong --- the whole Academy votes in EVERY category. Actors are the largest voting bloc, true, but they only represent one-third of the overall vote and who's to say it wasn't a close race between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke for the SAG award.

[Paris68]

I agree. But along with awarding advocacy, the Academy also tends to lean towards biographical portrayals (i.e., Philip Seymour Hoffman's "Capote," Forest Whitaker's "Last King of Scotland," Jamie Foxx's "Ray," etc.). So look for Penn for Best Actor.

And I agree that while Winslet is a favorite, but she's starting to run up against backlash for the role.