Emanuel Replacement Race: Feigenholtz Holds Money Lead, Tribune Reaffirms Quigley Support, Nate Silver Sets Odds

With under three days before Democratic voters will choose a nominee to replace Rahm Emanuel in the Fifth Congressional District, the eager candidates are pulling out all the stops.

State Rep. Sara Feigenholtz is maintaining the decided fundraising lead she has held throughout, but State Rep. John Fritchey and Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley are closing strong, with Fritchey reporting over $30,000 in contributions on Friday's 48-hour filing reports and Quigley disclosing over $15,000, according to Progress Illinois' fundraising table. Feigenholtz's total reported funds are $801, 244 while Fritchey, the closest candidate behind her, totals $584,913.

Feigenholtz has used part of her sizeable war chest on an a TV ad attacking Quigley:

Quigley's campaign responded with a doctored version of Feigenholtz's ad, using captions to counter its claims:

And the Feigenholtz attacks also prompted the Tribune editorial board to reaffirm its earlier Quigley endorsement with an updated defense headlined "Why We're For Quigley":

Let's bring it down to this. If you're a Democrat and you want a candidate with solid Democratic values, you can almost throw a dart at the ballot. Almost all of them qualify.

If you're a Democrat and you want a candidate who fights every day against the corruption and ineptitude that plagues state and local government, you have one candidate: Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley.

All of the candidates are spending the final days canvassing in the District's dozens of neighborhoods. Feigenholtz had the dumb luck to ring the doorbell of Sun-Times political reporter Abdon Pallasch, fresh out of the shower, while going door-to-door in Jefferson Park.

Ald. Pat O'Connor (40th), the most prominent Irish name in the race, attempted to leverage his ethnic appeal with interviews on Irish radio shows and an appearance at a St. Patrick's Day dinner dance, the Tribune reports.

Labor lawyer and writer Tom Geoghegan, who was hailed as the "Anti-Blago" in an In These Times article, spent his weekend canvassing at homes and churches and attending a reception at the home of a supporter.

The Sun-Times' Pallasch examined the 12 Democrats' policy stances and found more agreement than not.

Progress Illinois assessed the policy positions and statements of the five candidates with the most funds as of February 20th-- Feigenholtz, Fritchey, Quigley, Geoghegan and economics lecturer Charles Wheelan-- through a different lens.

A campaign volunteer for Dr. Victor Forys claims she was fired from her job as a union receptionist when she gave a letter to a co-worker laying out her concerns with Fritchey, whom her union has endorsed. The union would not comment to the Sun-Times, but Fritchey, who says he was notified of the story by the paper, cast doubt on the woman's claims:

"This sounds like a different version of a candidate throwing a brick through their own window and then calling the press conference," Fritchey said. "I've spent my legislative career fighting for the rights of working men and women. Obviously, I would never condone anything that would hurt anyone's ability to exercise their free speech."

And FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has revised his earlier prediction that Feigenholtz was the favorite. Acknowledging that the large number of candidates, expected low turnout and Mayor Daley's lack of participation mean that "nobody quite knows how this race is going to turn out," he nevertheless sets odds for the race. The money is on Quigley, at 2-1.