Igor Panarin: U.S. Will Collapse By Next Year

MOSCOW — If you're inclined to believe Igor Panarin, and the Kremlin wouldn't mind if you did, then President Barack Obama will order martial law this year, the U.S. will split into six rump-states before 2011, and Russia and China will become the backbones of a new world order.

Panarin might be easy to ignore but for the fact that he is a dean at the Foreign Ministry's school for future diplomats and a regular on Russia's state-guided TV channels. And his predictions fit into the anti-American story line of the Kremlin leadership.

"There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010," Panarin told dozens of students, professors and diplomats Tuesday at the Diplomatic Academy _ a lecture the ministry pointedly invited The Associated Press and other foreign media to attend.

The prediction from Panarin, a former spokesman for Russia's Federal Space Agency and reportedly an ex-KGB analyst, meshes with the negative view of the U.S. that has been flowing from the Kremlin in recent years, in particular from Vladimir Putin.

Putin, the former president who is now prime minister, has likened the United States to Nazi Germany's Third Reich and blames Washington for the global financial crisis that has pounded the Russian economy.

Panarin didn't give many specifics on what underlies his analysis, mostly citing newspapers, magazines and other open sources.

He also noted he had been predicting the demise of the world's wealthiest country for more than a decade now.

But he said the recent economic turmoil in the U.S. and other "social and cultural phenomena" led him to nail down a specific timeframe for "The End" _ when the United States will break up into six autonomous regions and Alaska will revert to Russian control.

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Panarin argued that Americans are in moral decline, saying their great psychological stress is evident from school shootings, the size of the prison population and the number of gay men.

Turning to economic woes, he cited the slide in major stock indexes, the decline in U.S. gross domestic product and Washington's bailout of banking giant Citigroup as evidence that American dominance of global markets has collapsed.

"I was there recently and things are far from good," he said. "What's happened is the collapse of the American dream."

Panarin insisted he didn't wish for a U.S. collapse, but he predicted Russia and China would emerge from the economic turmoil stronger and said the two nations should work together, even to create a new currency to replace the U.S. dollar.

Asked for comment on how the Foreign Ministry views Panarin's theories, a spokesman said all questions had to be submitted in writing and no answers were likely before Wednesday.

It wasn't clear how persuasive the 20-minute lecture was. One instructor asked Panarin whether his predictions more accurately describe Russia, which is undergoing its worst economic crisis in a decade as well as a demographic collapse that has led some scholars to predict the country's demise.

Panarin dismissed that idea: "The collapse of Russia will not occur."

But Alexei Malashenko, a scholar-in-residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center who did not attend the lecture, sided with the skeptical instructor, saying Russia is the country that is on the verge of disintegration.

"I can't imagine at all how the United States could ever fall apart," Malashenko told the AP.

Comments

[Palemoon]

Alot of his prediction seems a bit far-fetched, some aspects downright wishy-washy, LOLOL. Nevertheless, he does make some potential points. While I do not think the USA will collapse and then fracture into 6 sections with Alaska reverting to Russian autonomy with Sister Sarah leading the A.I.M. as a freedom fighter against the oppression in the great white north.... I do think that the USA will take a major hit, and to some extent, already has.

Things are not how they used to be. No longer is the US the sole superpower holding sway over the rest of the planet. We've been whacked in the knees and brought down to size a bit. A Russia-China pact could really upset the balance of power around the globe, probably ushering in a "new world order" in which the US power and influence is marginalized. Especially coming on the heels of one of the least diplomacy friendly Presidents we've ever had. They say you reap what you sow, so there's alot of countries out there right now salivating at the idea of bring the US down a peg. That's about all I see happening realistically anytime soon, at most the minimalization of the US power around the globe.

[carnelld]

Good points.

[happycozy]

I was taking this clown seriously until he started the whole "the gays are cause of all our problems" crap. He stopped short of, and danced around, saying the U.S. is in decline because we elected a black man.

If the U.S. collapses, I hope we grab Russia by the ankles and pull her down with us.

[hamchunk]

Maybe he is afraid to catch the gay (like a cold or something). Don't worry, Igor; as long as you wash your hands and not use public restrooms, you should be safe.

[carnelld]

America's Southwestern border with South America is almost obliterated.

There are serious problems with drug cartels and fighting between Mexico's government and the
well armed gangs. There have been reports regarding this violence creeping across the barder into the U S.

Unless America addresses this issue, there will be a flood of armed fighters coming to America if a crisis developes in America.

[royevatom]

Don't Worry almost every citizen is armed to the teeth and eager to shoot it out with just about anyone. BTW our drug culture is the reason that Mexico is having so much trouble. We are directly responsible for the effect drug trafficking has on the economy and government of Mexico.

[Decipherer]

Just good ol' free market economics.

[acudoc]

If we do collapse it will have everything to do with the Federal Reserve System, a banking cartel unconstitutionally legalized in 1913 by an Act of Congress! We are going to have to forgo debt-based money entirely, for money with inherently increasing purchasing power, money backed 100% by (1) all physical assets encumbered by loans in existence as of January 1, 20?? (backdated) that have been created in fractional-reserve banking institutions of the Federal Reserve System, and by (2) all extant U.S. federal, state, and local debt obligations. ALL such debt contracts, along with existing cash and checking account deposits are exchanged for the new American Freedom Note. Creditors forgo liens in exchange for FULL CASH OUT in American Freedom Notes of principal or nominal value of debt contracts. Debtors (individuals as well as institutions) ASSUME 100% OWNERSHIP of encumbered assets. Loans are made from that point on from a FIXED quantity of American Freedom Notes, with interest determined solely by market forces. Fractional-reserve lending is prohibited. Debt forgiveness, greed forgiveness, a clean slate with an honest system that lends capital ENTIRELY from a absolutely fixed amount of savings in new American Freedom Notes. No fractional reserve monkey business, no artificial setting of interest rates by nine white guys sitting around a table in Washington, D.C.

[DLBSR]

We are all onboard the ship, the USS America. She is in jagged seas, reeling from the shock of a tsunami that walloped her from astern in the quiet of night, thieving the wind from her sails and detaching fellow voyagers from their chattels. The good ship is taking on water and beginning to flounder. The alarm bells are calling all of us to our posts. We must operate the pumps, man the oars, and secure the helm.
We must become a united assemblage of voyagers focused on the common objective of ensuring the America safely emerges from her current struggles to subsist. We must stans arm-in-arm and shoulder-t­o-shoulder if we are to successfully deal with the ardous challenges confronting us. Otherwise, this ship will perish beneath the waves of history while we witness her piteous cries of anguish, taking with her the dreams and aspirations of generations past and generations yet to come.
The America has a commitment to the world to continue sailing through history, shining the light of self-determination and liberty from her lofty masts on the tempestuous of nights, when all else seems forlorn.

[Decipherer]

Arrrrghhh! Here there be pirates!

Seriously, though, you're extended metaphor is quite right. Our country faces massive challenges many of which are the result of our personal and national excesses and greed, fueled by what we thought was unlimited and cheap credit. That's over.

Time to return to our roots, realize what's important, and adjust our way of life (I hate that shallow word "lifestyle" to describe it) to the present circumstances.

It is high time we as Americans, comprising about 5% of the world's population, stop consuming and oftentimes wasting 25% of the globe's resources as if this were our God-given right.

We can lead again and we must. It is our destiny and responsibility.

[Phalanxman]

This kind of hucksterism has been around for generations, and will live on long after we are gone. If the U.S. does have a cataclysm in the next year or so, he will be proclaimed a living Nostradamus. If we somehow manage to hold together, he will re-vamp his story line a bit to announce the crisis has deepened, disaster only being averted by the miraculous intervention of unforseen international influences, that collapse is still imminent, and will occur no later than just two more years down the road. Thus assuring his continuing popularity and invitations to appear as a speaker and guest on whatever the Russians have in the way of t.v. talk shows.

[BannedInBoston]

You wish.

[DLBSR]

He is right however, the US could collapse within the time frame allotted. That is if you believe his analysis, mixed with a great deal of hope from the Russian and Chinese leadership. The one prevailing factor Igor failed to consider while preparing his analysis is of course, the will of the American people. Even in this day of 24 hour news and travel between regions and countries, most of the world does not understand us. Yes, to the world we seem to be a divided and polarized people. Heck, the democrats can't even agree on what to have for lunch, the republicans can't decide if it is even time for lunch before they start to argue about who is going to pay for dinner. But when push comes to shove we have always and will always band together in a cohesive force and do what is best for this country. This banding together is already beginning. I have read the many posts on many subjects on the tens of blogs and want to tell you I am encouraged about a new spirit in America. This new spirit has been slowly forming for weeks now, people casting aside their partisan bickering and right or left ideologies in a common effort to find solutions for the many problems confronting all of us.
You are wrong Igor, provide us more of your rhetoric, you only make us stronger and more determined to subsist as the world's encouragement for liberty and self-determination.

[LiteSleeper]

Just as the article says, the country very likely to invoke martial law and disintegrate in the next year will be Russia. They did nothing to modernize their economy in the last 8 years. They just helped a real estate boom to occur so that it looked like they were growing, just like here except we actually have property laws and industries and assets. You know something is seriously wrong when Moscow is the most expensive city in the world. There's no reason for it.

[RichDavid]

Russia has large numbers of Gay men......h­ello!

[Emerald1943]

Too much vodka, comrade! You may criticize us, rightly so in some cases, and you may predict our downfall, but I believe this last election proved that when we face common problems, we band together and stand up tall! You are seriously underestimating the will and strength of the American people!

We have elected a brilliant leader to bring us out of the abyss left by the last administration and he has said, "there is no red America, no blue America, there is the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA! Do not mess with us!

[Birdman]

Might all be true except for Missouri, with their latest antics about Obama's birth certificate and possibly a few other southern states, some I feel are questionable as far as being willing participants in our recent change in this country having a black president and all. I doubt that there is any danger of a break-up. But who knows Rush Limbaugh seems to be Der leader as far as being very critical of Obama, and wishing him failure.

[kolorkin]

what a s.hitty thing to say about another country. watch out for karma!

[Space Walker]

The underlying theme is if the US collapse economically, then the entire word does. if that happens, guess what a solution will be given, by then things will be so bad that people here and around the world will welcome such a solution. the solution will be a one world currency as what sarcozy and merkel and many other EU leaders have been calling for. With one currency comes a supra-national government with one soverenty (sp). Thats the underlying theme he's is saying indirectly without saying. Pay attention people, this isn't checkers, but chess. Look around you, the corporate bankers are being used as scapegoats to blame the real bankers in charge. Whenever the media demonize someone or something, chances are its just a hit job to distract. Your best bet is to hit the history book and turn the pages back to Germany and tell me if the play book isn't the same. We are being played by a smooth talker that get his directives from people that you cant see, bush jobs was to implement his directives and tighten freedoms and his successors job is to carry out the laws that were signed by bush. My Gosh, If i am wrong, why is there no talk of reversing FISA or the patriot act, you people better ask questions. Sorry to break the news to you people but if you think things will change, then you are obviously walking in space with me right now. WAKE UP!

[fedupwiththis]

Wear a tin foil hat much?

[Birdman]

Your theory might be correct, but today I heard that there was a danger of a break up of the EU some countries were lookiing to back out of the one currency model and going their own way again.

[wdw505]

good

[ObamAtomic]

Mr Igor,you are crazy , your statements are out of touch with reality.

[Turtleposer]

If it happens, we're taking Russia down too.