China: US Debt Is Still A Buy

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CHRISTOPHER BODEEN | 03/23/09 06:43 AM | AP

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BEIJING — China will continue buying U.S. government debt while paying close attention to possible fluctuations in the value of those assets, a vice governor of Beijing's central bank said Monday.

Investing in U.S. Treasury bills is "an important component part of China's foreign currency reserve investments," People's Bank of China Vice Governor Hu Xiaolian said at a news conference on Monday.

"So as an important component we are naturally relatively concerned with the safety and profitability of U.S. government bonds," Hu said _ a statement apparently aimed at concerns that rising debt to fund Washington's stimulus package could spur inflation and weaken the dollar.

China is Washington's biggest foreign creditor, holding an estimated $1 trillion in U.S. government debt. A weaker dollar would erode the value of those assets.

Hu's comments follow remarks earlier this month from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that he was "a little bit worried" about China's holdings of U.S. government debt. Wen called on the U.S. to honor its commitments, remain credit-worthy, and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.

China's investments are likely to be a major topic of discussion when Chinese President Hu Jintao meets with President Barack Obama on the sidelines of an April 2 summit in London of the Group of 20 major economies called to discuss remedies for the global financial crisis.

The meeting will be the first face-to-face encounter between the two men, and a top Chinese diplomat appearing alongside Hu Xiaolian sought to set a positive tone for the talks.

China-U.S. relations have gotten off to an "excellent start" under Obama, Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei said, appearing to rule out any lasting damage from a confrontation earlier this month between Chinese boats and an unarmed U.S. Navy surveillance ship off China's southeastern coast.

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China accused the USNS Impeccable ship of operating illegally within its exclusive economic zone, while the U.S. said the Chinese boats had acted dangerously in blocking its passage and later assigned a destroyer to escort the ship.

He said Hu and Obama planned to discuss the global economic crisis, bilateral ties, and regional and global issues such as plans by North Korea to launch missile and Iran's nuclear program.

Despite its massive holding of U.S. government debt, China has given no indication of any preferred changes to Washington's policies, and Hu, the central bank's vice governor _ who is not related to the president _ said China considered U.S. debt a good credit risk, even if market values fluctuate.

Analysts estimate China keeps nearly half of its $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves in U.S. Treasuries and notes issued by other government-affiliated agencies. That has sparked questions within China as to whether the government should continue to buy Treasuries, as well as debate on how Beijing might leverage that to boost its influence over the global financial system.

China's continued purchase of Treasuries helps fund U.S. deficit spending aimed at averting a lengthy recession and helps keeps interest rates low to permit U.S. banks to continue lending.

At April's London summit, leaders are expected to press for an overhaul of international financial institutions to help ward off future crises. That could include doubling the International Monetary Fund's budget to US$500 billion and giving more say to China.

Hu said China supports efforts by the IMF to come up with new ways of raising capital, possibly including the sale of bonds. If bonds were issued, China would "actively consider" buying them, Hu said.

BEIJING — China will continue buying U.S. government debt while paying close attention to possible fluctuations in the value of those assets, a vice governor of Beijing's central bank said Monda...
BEIJING — China will continue buying U.S. government debt while paying close attention to possible fluctuations in the value of those assets, a vice governor of Beijing's central bank said Monda...
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Of course they'll [Chinese] buy our debt! America is the biggest consumer in the world. They are arguably the biggest producer in the world. Who else is going to buy that junk? If we go down -- they go down!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:49 PM on 03/23/2009
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Chinese president Hu Jintao has expressed “concern” about the safety of his country’s $696 billion investment in US Treasury bonds. What he is not telling you is that he is even more “concerned” about the hundreds of billions of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, GMAC, and other agency debt, which are either now untradeable, or have gone into the toilet. And “concerned” he should be. Not only is some of the paper China owns now worthless, there is a 50% devaluation of the dollar in the cards which is the guaranteed result of current US government printing press policies. One of the great luxuries of running a dictatorship is that you can skip mark-to-market accounting. The government entities that own this garbage are carrying it on their books at par, because they intend to hold it to maturity. If China used mark-to-market they would have plunged into another civil war by now. Expect to hear more “concerns” from Japan, Singapore, and the sovereign wealth funds that are in the same boat.
www.madhedgefundtrader.com.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:33 PM on 03/23/2009
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Ugh - when it comes to China, the US is too big to fail.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:23 PM on 03/23/2009

B of A owns a 16% {down from 19% in dec.}share in chinas biggest bank as do other banks getting tarp.So why wouldnt they?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:49 PM on 03/23/2009
- robinhood1 I'm a Fan of robinhood1 11 fans permalink

If I were advising the Chinese, I would tell them to buy only only the Treasury inflation protected bonds (TIPS), assuming they still want to buy US government debt at all. Fixed rate Treasuries are now paying so little interest that the TIPS seem the better value, just in case inflation really does take off in a year or so. Maybe they should ask for an additional pledge of Federal gas tax revenues, just to make sure they get repaid on a timely basis. Double barreled bonds are not that unusual in the municipal bond world and maybe its time for investors to ask for the same security from Uncle Sugar. He no longer warrants a AAA.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:57 PM on 03/23/2009
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They won't get repaid either way. If China owned all their Treasuries in TIPS, the US would just default. If not, the US will inflate. Either way, China gets caught holding the bag. But it doesn't matter, because they have already proven they can live without that money, and once they stop lending, they will have even more wealth to consume. The US, on the other hand, has proven that they cannot live within their means. In fact, they call living within their means a "depression," which is exactly what they're going to be in once they have no more access to borrowed wealth.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:13 PM on 03/23/2009
- Furby I'm a Fan of Furby 66 fans permalink
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The world's new super power: China.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:14 PM on 03/23/2009

I have read that China has been promised US land and real assets incase US defaults on Treasuries.
That is why they continue to buy them, also, today's Financial Times has an article where China is calling for a one world currency backed by IMF to move away from the inevitable meltdown of the dollar as an international currency. Now we know what Bernacke and Greenspan have been up to all these years and we are being brought to a depression like sheeps.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:47 PM on 03/23/2009

Dont worry fellas !!

US will NOT default on its soverign debt. What will happen though is we will have to cut some programs in the future due to increasing debt service. thats all.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:42 PM on 03/23/2009
- Furby I'm a Fan of Furby 66 fans permalink
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I don't share your optimism. It's difficult to get the world to invest in US debt because it's not a sound investment. No assets to back up the loan.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:16 PM on 03/23/2009

we will inflate our way through the debt.

meaning we will pay back the debt with devalued currency. thats a more realistic way of looking at it than saying we will default on our own debt.

VERY FEW countries default on its local currency debt. Its the foreign currency debt that is the reason for most defaults.

our debt is all in local currency. usually that leads printing more and more rather than default.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:29 PM on 03/23/2009
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As an investor, I can sympathize with China's concerns. Most people do not want to invest without security of some nature. As what we offer China appears to be less and less, they question what is the value of the loan. I suggest that we offer China the State of Alaska as colateral, so that if we fail to meet our obligations to them, they can take Alaska as a consolation prize. And yes, the prize citizenry would be included, too.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:14 AM on 03/23/2009
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America has no intention of ever paying China back. Ever. It's that simple. Everyone knows it, including China. Americans simply will not stand for the idea of producing more wealth than they consume, of manufacturing 10 cars and only driving 8, of working 40 hours and only purchasing the equivalent of 30 hours of Chinese labour, of buying products from China for $10 while selling similar products to China for $5. This is how China built up its US dollar savings, and this is what it will mean for America to pay off the debt. There's no magic formula.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:44 AM on 03/23/2009

We have offered them Alaska and your home state and every business in between. You don't think China is buying our worthless treasuries for nothing?!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:49 PM on 03/23/2009
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You say they've offered the Chinese the state of Albania? What will momma think?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:43 PM on 03/23/2009
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We hear a lot about China's plans, but absolutely nothing about America's. There are two options:

1. At some point in the future America's labour, resources, and wealth will be moved off shore to China to pay off the massive debt. American ingenuity will be used to develop China's infrastructure, while America's infrastructure is neglected.

2. America will default... literally, or through a massive inflationary move. The result of which will be a period in which America will find it impossible to borrow from other nations.

Which is it?

Either way, the end game is an America that no longer lives above its means and a generation of American's who are shocked to realise just how little their "means" will buy.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:51 AM on 03/23/2009
- EinChicago I'm a Fan of EinChicago 33 fans permalink

"Which is it?

Likely neither. Both of those are sandwich board wearing idiotic prophecies.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:10 AM on 03/23/2009
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Hmmm... you've borrowed money. So I point out that you have two options: pay it back, or don't pay it back.

You see a third option? Please elaborate.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:35 AM on 03/23/2009
- PWM I'm a Fan of PWM 258 fans permalink
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The first will not happen because China needs markets far more than capital. The second may happen but not for another decade.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:36 AM on 03/23/2009
- jeffp26 I'm a Fan of jeffp26 26 fans permalink
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It's the inflation that will be it. We will give the Chinese back the dollars they invested, but each dollar will be worth less than a comparable sized piece of toilet paper.

This is the Decline of the American Empire, and there is nothing we can do about it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:39 AM on 03/23/2009

Financial Terrorism and Recouping the Bonus Payouts:

http://voteforamerica.net/editorials/Comments.aspx?ArticleId=256&ArticleName=Squashing+Fiscal+Abuse

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:17 AM on 03/23/2009
- Furby I'm a Fan of Furby 66 fans permalink
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Brilliant.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:19 PM on 03/23/2009
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