Study: Arctic Sea Ice Melting Faster Than Expected

WASHINGTON — Arctic sea ice is melting so fast most of it could be gone in 30 years. A new analysis of changing conditions in the region, using complex computer models of weather and climate, says conditions that had been forecast by the end of the century could occur much sooner.

A change in the amount of ice is important because the white surface reflects sunlight back into space. When ice is replaced by dark ocean water that sunlight can be absorbed, warming the water and increasing the warming of the planet.

The finding adds to concern about climate change caused by human activities such as burning fossil fuels, a problem that has begun receiving more attention in the Obama administration and is part of the G20 discussions under way in London.

"Due to the recent loss of sea ice, the 2005-2008 autumn central Arctic surface air temperatures were greater than 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above" what would be expected, the new study reports.

That amount of temperature increase had been expected by the year 2070.

The new report by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E. Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, appears in Friday's edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles normally to 620,000 square miles within 30 years.

Last year's summer minimum was 1.8 million square miles in September, second lowest only to 2007 which had a minimum of 1.65 million square miles, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The Center said Arctic sea ice reached its winter maximum for this year at 5.8 million square miles on Feb. 28. That was 278,000 square miles below the 1979-2000 average making it the fifth lowest on record. The six lowest maximums since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years.

Overland and Wang combined sea-ice observations with six complex computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to reach their conclusions. Combining several computer models helps avoid uncertainties caused by natural variability.

Much of the remaining ice would be north of Canada and Greenland, with much less between Alaska and Russia in the Pacific Arctic.

"The Arctic is often called the Earth's refrigerator because the sea ice helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun's radiation back into space," Wang said in a statement. "With less ice, the sun's warmth is instead absorbed by the open water, contributing to warmer temperatures in the water and the air."

The study was supported by the NOAA Climate Change Program Office, the Institute for the Study of the Ocean and Atmosphere and the U.S. Department of Energy.

___

On the Net:

NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov

Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean: http://jisao.washington.edu/

National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org/

Geophysical Research Letters: http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/

Comments

[SeaKitten]

11:29 PM on 04/05/2009

"A new analysis of changing conditions in the region, using complex computer models of weather and climate,..."

How's this for a novel theory -- go up there an actually make some measurements?

[Richard2]

01:32 PM on 04/05/2009

From Sci & Tech, 3/01/08:

"The polar cap in the Arctic may well disappear this summer due to the global warming. Dr. Olav Orheim, head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, said on Friday. The shrinking of the Arctic Ice cap has been astonishing.

How is the Arctic sea ice melting faster than expected? 30 years is a lot longer than last summer.

Meanwhile, the 2008-2009 Arctic sea ice remains well above the levels of the past two years, heading towards the summer season. Also, the three spring break visitors to the Arctic are complaining about the stupid cold temperatures there ( -35 C).

[StanlyManly]

02:47 PM on 04/05/2009

That article is a great example of the power of propaganda. It even makes disclaimers in the event that the assertion is wrong. The frosting on the cake is the arbitrary numbers that are thrown about if somehow the oceans just suddenly and magicaly rise by a meter.

[SonofLiberty1]

04:17 PM on 04/05/2009

Stan,

Explain to me why your car gets hot sitting in the sunshine?

[melmoid]

10:22 AM on 04/05/2009

Repent ye sinners against the earth. There is still time brother, there is still time sister.

[Mr Mabujo]

02:07 AM on 04/05/2009

Once again, there is more at play here than just green house gasses. For the most part, there are a lot of geological processes tho take into consideration as well as our output of carbon dioxide. There is also the basic idea that if we are polluting the earth, the particles that are suspended in the air would block the sun's rays from the surface, causing temperatures to drop, like the little ice age. On another note, look on the bright side: The Canadians can now open up new trade routes to our Soviet comrades on the other side of the arctic circle : P.

[Exusian]

07:10 PM on 04/04/2009

Reuters is reporting that the last remnant of the Wilkens Ice shelf has been severed:
http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE5326HO20090404

Sat image:
http://esamultimedia.esa.int/images/wilkinsarctic/pub/images/ASA_IMM_1PNPDE20090404_055330_000002392077_00463_37090_1586_100m_img.jpg

[SonofLiberty1]

10:03 PM on 04/04/2009

Just like I said last night that CNN was saying it was close to falling into the sea:(

[StanlyManly]

11:14 PM on 04/04/2009

Repent now! The end is nigh!

[Richard2]

04:14 PM on 04/04/2009

Gosh, this article has provoked a huge number of comments. It has been great reading them all.

[obamanomics]

09:04 AM on 04/04/2009

Still can't believe they got people to buy into this nonsense.

[SonofLiberty1]

12:07 PM on 04/04/2009

And I have grave difficulties how you pick and choose what scientific principles to believe and the ones you don't believe in.....

Just like Republican Conservatives....Cafeteria Christians and Cafeteria Elites.

Truth is truth, whether scientific or religious.

God does not lie nor does he mislead.

[StanlyManly]

12:39 PM on 04/04/2009

I fear for your sanity at this point, SonofLiberty1. In the short time that I have been posting here, I have seen your comments and stances shift, reverse, and then flounder. Now it seems, you have stopped even trying to argue, and are falling back to religion to explain reality.

You are entitled to your beliefs. But please keep your "praise god" arguments out of discussions that center around phenomena that are actually observable .

[emily00011]

06:08 PM on 04/04/2009

Wilkin's ice shelf just broke off today.

[WilliePilgrim]

08:30 AM on 04/04/2009

Increase temps in the arctic mean less ice which equals more sun warming the water which means more plankton, which means more fish, which means more seals, which means more polar bears which will eat the seals, and keep their population healthy, and which will limit the number of fish that the seals will eat, which will mean a richer population of plankton, which will block the sun and inhibit warming of the water which will make the ice thicker next winter... which means that all our problems will soon be over...especially if we use the logic of ideoglogues who insist on ignoring those facts which don't achieve their goals...whatever they are and on both sides of the ludicous political spectrum as it's been defined and observed..
The science clearly states that panic will get you nowhere.

[obamanomics]

09:07 AM on 04/04/2009

Truth be told they have zero clue what is actually happeneing and what is the actual cause. Some scientists are now stating we are entering into a period of global cooling. This is not settled as the left wing l00ns would have anyone believe. But hey, when you believe in nothing you have to believe in something. So bow down to your global warming god.

[melmoid]

10:18 AM on 04/05/2009

What! A global warming god!!! Are you sampling too much of the pharmacy. Scientific data has nothing to do with god.

[realpolitic]

05:46 AM on 04/04/2009

Selfishness is often the religion of those on the right. As long as there are perceived sacrifices to be made to respond to climate change, the right will try to throw skepticism on the science. The right does not help its own cause in this way, but may slow policy responses.

[StanlyManly]

02:34 PM on 04/04/2009

Next time, try having a point, instead of just prattling out a self gratifying, lingo filled, soliloquy.

[realpolitic]

06:33 AM on 04/05/2009

I like self-gratifying, lingo-filled soliloguies as much as I like jelly doughnuts.

[ohiomark]

11:54 PM on 04/03/2009

Maybe we should tax the sun and the under water volcanos beneath the Artic.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080625140649.htm

[LiberalBuzz]

02:04 AM on 04/04/2009

Geez and here I thought y o u were still under yo ur rock.

[realpolitic]

02:47 AM on 04/04/2009

It is always amazing that you guys on the right always point to a scientific article here and there and then ignore the 98% of the science that points directly to anthropogenic warming. You are capable of a very selective belief system indicating you pick and choose what you believe based on preconceived opinions.

[StanlyManly]

02:16 PM on 04/05/2009

The problem is, no actual science points directly at human influence. While there may be science that shows a trend to warming, unless you believe that 1979 is the Beginning of Time, you can't establish a reference for the trend.

Let me give you an example: If you were believe that 3/9/2009 was the Beginning of Time, and used that to guage how well the stock market was doing, you would think it was performing above average. However, if you believe that 10/28/2007 was the Beginning of Time (forgive me if my dates are off), then stocks would appear to be performing below average.

But wait, theres more. If you once again move back your acceptance of when the Beginning of Time was, say to 10/29/1929, then stocks seem to be performing at a nearly unbelievably positive rate. Don't get too hung up on any correlation here, this is merely an example of using statistics to "prove" whatever you want, based on the data set you choose to utilize.

So, while the science that points to a warming trend may be correct (that trend has been happening for the past 18,000 years), it is not correct to assume that mankind's carbon output since 1979 has caused it, since mankind wasn't exactly producing this level of CO2 18,000 years ago, nor where they producing it (or even in existance) 30+m years ago.

[Richard2]

10:23 PM on 04/03/2009

From the Independent, a newspaper in England (6/27/08)

"Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at the North Pole this summer."

"It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course to disappear from the North Pole this year." The major scientist referenced was Pete Wadhams of Cambridge University.

Nice call.

[ramal]

10:16 PM on 04/03/2009

It is much, much later than we think.

[hhl15]

08:10 PM on 04/03/2009

Both poles are well within the range of natural variability of sea-ice extent, with the Antarctic above and Arctic just below. In total it is exactly at the 30 year average according to -
http://www.climatechangefacts.info/Today-Global-Ice-Area-and-Trends.html

[realpolitic]

03:20 AM on 04/04/2009

Your phony website says this: "If the Arctic loses ice, but the global balance is about the same, there is no global warming." Any scientists or layman, such as myself, will tell you this statement is completely false. Most of the ice in the Antarctic is on land. Secondly, the article above tells you that Artic ice is melting mush faster than expected and "the 2005-2008 autumn central Arctic surface air temperatures were greater than 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above what would be expected."

According to NOAA, "The sea ice area for the Arctic shows near-record minimums for 2002-2008..... . Sea ice area is now significantly below the level of the 1980s and earlier."

Decline in Arctic Sea Ice Extent

"Passive microwave satellite data reveal that, since 1979, winter Arctic ice extent has decreased about 4.2 percent per decade. Antarctic ice extent is increasing (Cavalieri et al. 2003), but the trend is small."

http://www.nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

"No one's entirely sure what's causing the expansion of sea ice in Antarctica, but the likeliest explanation is a disturbing one. According to a 2005 NASA-funded study, warmer temperatures have caused greater snowfall around the continent's edges, where the open oceans provide plenty of raw material for precipitation. (Warmer air absorbs moisture more readily.) The weight of that excess snow pushes sheets of sea ice down into the water, causing more water to freeze."

http://www.slate.com/id/2192730/

[StanlyManly]

12:46 PM on 04/04/2009

Again, it seems that for these "scientists", and laymans such as yourself, 1979 was the Beginning of Time. All climate should therefore be compared to 1979, and any percieved deviation from this "baseline" should be viewed as a man made, catastophic event which can only be solved by purchasing a $55,000 electric car made in the USA.

Act now, quantities are limited.

[SonofLiberty1]

07:11 PM on 04/03/2009

I think we will have to get used to it....

ADAPT

AND

Live differently..

I suggest PRAYER too....

[melmoid]

06:29 PM on 04/03/2009

We are doomed! These blogs prove it.

[Dialogue]

07:14 PM on 04/03/2009

The earth is bigger than mankinds fears. The earth will cool-down, then warm-up, its that simple. Rocket science is not required.

[ohiomark]

11:45 PM on 04/03/2009

Junk science is required to justify massive tax increases and redistribution of wealth.

[realpolitic]

03:22 AM on 04/04/2009

Thank you for making an argument that we should disregard science and return to some sort of pagan sun worship. Should we sacrifice animals to the nature Gods to prevent further warming?