05/09/2009 05:12 am ET | Updated May 25, 2011

Economic Recovery Started, Recession Over This Year: NY Fed

According to the New York Fed, "Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity."

This afternoon, the New York Fed released its latest "Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread," with data through March 2009, and the Fed's recession probability forecast through March 2010 (see chart above, click to enlarge). The NY Fed's model uses the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates (currently at 2.61%) to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead (see chart below of the Treasury spread).