Steve Schmidt, McCain Campaign Manager: 'When Lehman Collapsed...The Campaign Was Finished'

Ben Smith reports on a joint appearance by opposing campaign gurus Steve Schmidt and David Plouffe, who gave the students of the University of Delaware a bit of a debrief of Campaign 2008. Schmidt offered up many candid observations of the race run by John McCain, one of the most interesting being the moment when he came to believe that winning was impossible:

Schmidt returned again and again to the notion that McCain's defeat was essentially pre-ordained, a comfortable belief that's now widely held among McCain's former aides, and was fairly common among them even during the final weeks of the campaign.

"We were running a campaign under extra difficult circumstances - the state of the Republican party, the president's unpopularity, the economy - a lot of issues that were not John McCain's fault but were John McCain's problem in this race," Schmidt said. "When Lehman Brothers collapsed in the fall I knew pretty much right away that ... from an electoral strategy perspective, the campaign was finished," he said.

Few would question the idea that the financial crisis in which the nation became engulfed last fall fundamentally altered the dynamics of the race. Still, Lehman's stock price collapsed on September 9, and steadily eroded until September 15, when the firm filed for bankruptcy. And worse stuff was on the way. And yet the McCain campaign made a decision on September 24 to suspend their campaign so that John McCain could focus on the financial crisis. Except that John McCain really didn't do much suspending or much focusing. Beyond the melodrama of the announcement, which sent the media into a breathless paroxysm, the practical result of this "suspension" was trading a photo-op with David Letterman for a photo-op with President George W. Bush.

Perhaps the suspension was the attempt at "throwing a football through a tire at 50 yards," that Schmidt describes. And maybe that was the moment the loss was "ordained." I think, though, that it's fair to wonder if that whole campaign episode was a wise decision. Speaking only for myself, that was the moment I ceased to take the notion of John McCain being sensible in a crisis very seriously.

That whole being mad at Spain thing didn't help much, either.

[hat tip: Media Monitor Steve m.]

PREVIOUSLY...on the HUFFINGTON POST:
Steve Schmidt To Call On GOP To Back Gay Marriage
Steve Schmidt, McCain Campaign Manager: Religion Could Kill The GOP

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Comments

[ckfan]

I campaigned for Obama and after speaking in person and on the phone with potential voters it was clear McCain's campaign was doomed the minute he chose Palin. She energized the base for about 15 minutes, then she opened her mouth. . . and the rest is history.

[Freesia2]

Out of curiosity (I was never brave enough to do the cold calls) did people flat out say that? Undecideds or liberal leaning Republicans or - well potential voters. They bluntly said no to him because of her?

[ckfan]

Yes, I was a bit intimidated with the phone calls. People hung up on me, called Obama the N word (gee, I thought there was no racism in America anymore).

Anyway, they would make comments such as (and i'm paraphrasing):

I don't care for that woman.

I'm undecided, but Palin doesn't seem qualified

Why did he choose her, she doesn't seem very bright

I thought he would be a good choice, but he chose someone he doesn't really know and that doesn't make sense.

His age was a huge factor. Alot of people said they were leaning toward him but was disappointed he didn't select someone qualified to succeed him due to his age.

[Freesia2]

Oh there were so many things wrong with McCain. Any one could have sunk him. Yes he was paying for Bush and the economy. And you're right that the way he responded to the economic emergency told you pretty much how he would handle a crisis - which is to pretend to handle it. Lots of posturing and patriotic sounding piddle.

But I think what told me he wouldn't be sensible in a crisis, or sensibile in a non-crisis for that matter, was the the selection of Palin. I saw her speaking at one rally and it was clear that she was not bright, not serious, and was a race baiter. It told me all I needed of John McCain's judgment.

He didn't vet her. He didn't think he had to. We'd have another "Decider", going by his gut. The last thing we needed. Palin told me so.

[AnalyzeIT]

John McCain's campagin collapsed approxomately 24 to 48 hours after Palin gave her RNC speech....­. when we started to do a bit of our own vetting on her.

[MathIsTruth]

"...the state of the Republican party, the president's unpopularity, the economy - a lot of issues that were not John McCain's fault..."

What nonsense!

-- John McCain was part of the Republican Party...in fact, he was its leader. He chose to put an "R" next to his name.

-- The unpopular president is one who he supported and said he did not differ with on any important issue.

-- The economy woes were a direct result of the kind of deregulation that he supported. And he clearly demonstrated (and admitted) that he was unqualified to deal with economic issues.

Lehman wasn't John McCain's problem. John McCain was John McCain's problem!

[jsinclair]

Lehman's collapse presented both Obama AND McCain with the opportunity to show..

(1) their understanding of the problem--its causes, severity, and what to do about it; and

(2) their leadership skills under pressure.

McCain failed at both of these. Obama succeeded.

It wasn't "Lehman's collapse" that doomed McCain. It was HIS (clueless and desperate) RESPONSE to it that helped doom him--particularly when contrasted with Obama's cool and calm grasp of the situation, patience, steadiness, and--most of all-- apparent seasoned leadership skills.

McCain doomed his own campaign. It collapsed from inside. (Sorry, Mr. Schmidt. I know the truth still hurts).

[Abdiel Lawrence]

Also, the attacks on Obama's background didnt help much either. Hannity, Cunningham, & Limbaugh kept endlessly talking about....4 YEARS IN INDONESIA.­....HIS DAD WAS A MUSLIM....­..SO HE IS A MUSLIM....­...MIDDLE NAME IS HUSSEIN...­..LAST NAME RHYMES WITH OSAMA

Had Obama spent 4 years in Canada or France, being abroad for 4 years as a young kind would not have even been an issue since Canada & France are both Christian nations. Republicans think that Muslim bashing and foreigner bashing works in this day and age. This is 2009, not 1950. this country and the world is too globalized for such nonsense. To be a viable party, you have to appeal to Americans who are aware of this globalization, not the Billy Bob's who have never been abroad and are proud that have never done so.

[Abdiel Lawrence]

McCain lost because he represents a party that doesnt reflect the plurality of American society. I say this as a Republican. What did it for me was not picking Palin or Lehman collapsing­......it was watching the DEM & GOP conventions.

[KofTX]

I do believe that as far as the independent vote was concerned, McCain's flailing around and jumbled response to the financial crisis sealed his fate. The crisis provided us all with front row seats as to how the two candidates would react if a crisis of similar urgency would have happened on their watch. McCain reacted like a politician, seeking some sort of political upside or sympathy with is faux campaign suspension. Obama reacted like a President, huddling his advisors and taking the necessary time to formulate a reasonable and measured response to the problem.

And that's why he won.

[ckfan]

Yes, it wasn't the financial crisis it was McCain's REACTION to the crisis combined with not vetting Palin. He looked like an amateur.

[JulieSA]

I think both you and Schmidt are right. The Lehman collapse was the beginning of the end, in that the electorate tends to vote out the incumbent party in an economic crisis. The subsequent events put the nails in it, though.

[Horus45]

I believe that the reality that they were going to lose occurred before the collapse.
I think when they saw President Obama take the stage to accept his party's nomination for President, that they looked at each other and declared "We are screwed".

[AnnfromCA]

I would agree with him entirely on that being the moment.

[DJ23]

AnnfromCA:

His arrogance will be the key attribute people remember about him, on a personal level.

I feel bad for a lot of solid AA politicians.

This is what people will remember. Obama's arrogance.­"

Posted 05:40 PM on 04/24/2009

Nothing to offer but B i g o t r y

Arrogance = the new uppity

[JulieSA]

Paying the race card is a cheap and transparent way to try to shut down speech with which you disagree.

[Horus45]

You might have a point if not for Obama's poll numbers.

Those of us that supported and voted for him see NO Arrogance whatsoever!

He is making good on his campaign promises.

[Dystopic]

the moment he lost the race is when he picked Palin, and used the same people who smeared him and his "black child"...

[ObamAtomic]

No only that,he was talking to America in a condescending manners ,
his partnerships with different individuals,talking down to the other candidate,
everything about him,his people,his speeches,Palin choice,
his bearing,his ages,,his uncaring attitude his arrogant tone
his lack of intelligence,his lawn,his chair.

[BritishColumbian]

Why can't people accept that President Obama won because he was the best candidate??

[Dystopic]

acording to the wingnuts, McCain lost, Obama did not win, hell he wasn't even born here. There has been a 45+ year conspiracy to hide where he was born...

[JRsNana]

While I could reiterate the many many reasons John McCain lost (really good list here people!), I'll only give the moment I knew he would lose. It was the day he went and kissed Jerry Falwell when he spoke at that "University" of his. He ran straight into the arms of the 24% never to wrestle out of their stranglehold and lost a bunch of moderates in the process.

[Libbydoe]

One reason McCain lost is that he pandered to the "base," of the Reupblican party, especially in his choice of Palin as his VP. Had he selected a middle of the road running mate and stayed true to his own ideals, he may have won.

[Morhek]

I found McCain to be likeable, at least at first. But then the campaign wore on, and he swung to the far-right seemingly in an attempt to gather all the whack-jobs that most sane people would leave to crawl back where they came from. And his pick of Sarah Palin just seemed to me to be a cheap way to try and draw all the disenfranchised Hillary voters upset that they weren't getting a woman president. "Everyone's favourite grandpa" turned into "obama=ter­rorist/tax­cutstaxcut­staxcuts". There were a LOT of other reasons, besides the economy, that McCain could never have won this race - the taint of an unpopular president upon his party and anyone in it or even loosely affiliated with it; the fact that Obama was not only black but a lot younger, more "relatable" to the younger generation; and the fact that while he may be the guy you'd like to have a few beers with at a bar, he never came off as "presidential" material. At least, not to me.

[Icantbelieveher]

And don't forget -- The fundamentals of the economy are strong -- I don't really know much about economics -- 7 houses -- THAT ONE!