Specter's Defection Likely Doesn't Change EFCA Calculus, Dems Acknowledge

The first wave of speculation over the implications of Sen. Arlen Specter's defection to the Democratic Party surrounded one of the day's most hotly contested legislative issues: the Employee Free Choice Act.

Starting with the belief that Specter was driven to opposing the bill by the pressures of a close-to-impossible Republican primary, the thinking went that as the electoral threat faded, so too would his EFCA opposition. Adding a bit of kindling to the fire, the early rumor from Capitol Hill was that Democratic leadership in the Senate had struck a deal with Specter on EFCA as a precondition for him joining their ranks. After slight alterations to the bill, the Pennsylvanian would offer his support. In turn, the party would be spared the embarrassing sight of having the labor community cold on both candidates in the 2010 Senate race.

"I hear that Reid worked something out with Specter so that with a few minor changes he will support EFCA," emailed one well-connected Democrat. "Reid needed that to avoid labor being furious at Specter taking the Dem seat."

Alas, the rumor seems to be just that. In conversations with key labor and Democratic Party figures, the EFCA-related news was fairly clear: The legislation is no closer to getting the 60 votes it needs to cut off a Republican filibuster than when Specter was a member of the GOP. As one senior Democratic aide noted, "[Specter] made it clear he still opposed the Employee Free Choice Act in his statement." Moreover, even if Democrats were able to bring him back into the fold, "you still have to deal with [Blanche] Lincoln, Diane [Feinstein] and Jim [Webb]."

All of which is not to say that the day's developments don't carry significance. Removed from Republican caucus pressure, Specter may very well revert to his 2003 and 2007 EFCA stance, when he co-sponsored and supported cloture respectively. And, as another labor source noted, if a deal happened to be struck on compromise legislation, it was more likely now that Specter (along with the recalcitrant Democrats) would be brought on board.

"This is a new day for the Employee Free Choice Act and labor law reform," AFL-CIO legislative director Bill Samuel told Politico.

That said, officials in the labor community and on the Hill were quick to downplay talk that, behind the scenes, the groundwork had suddenly been put in place for Specter to back an altered version of the bill.

"All of that would have been happening even if he hadn't switched parties," said one high-ranking labor official. "We've been trying to win back his support since he came out against [EFCA]."

Specter himself has stressed that his stance on EFCA would not change -- but as multiple people have pointed out, he also insisted he would remain in the GOP.

"My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans," he said in his statement. "Unlike Senator Jeffords' switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change."

And, apparently, the senator's close aides are making similar assurances to EFCA opponents in private.

"In his statement said he is not switching," Grover Norquist, head of Americans for Tax Reform, told the Huffington Post. "And his Chief of Staff reiterated this to me over the phone."

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Comments

[JackND]

This might be jumping the gun a bit. Arlen Specter couldn't really jump back aboard EFCA yesterday, because it would appear to have been blatantly political, and woudl have helped no one, especially since his most recent flip flop on the issue came just in March.

He may yet come back aboard, after going through one of those Washingtonian periods of "persuasion, convincing, and compromise" and, when the time comes, vote for it. The jury is still out, to be sure.

[Mike169]

All Specter has to do is vote against the filibuster and EFCA will pas. For all the Republicans whining about the so called right to vote being taken away, this is exactly what they are doing by filibutering for a super majority. How about a straight up and down vote which would emphasize our commitment to democracy rather than the facade the Republicans and their allies are putting up?

[PhDcommonsense]

I only have one thing to say to Democratic Leadership in Congress, DO NOT fall head over heels for the Defection of Arlen Spectre and ignore any viable Democrats that may be running for the Senate and House Races in 2010 in Pennsylvania.
Sen. Spector seems to be doing it for self preservations and he is already made pronoucements I think are not good for the Democrats. The President came out too prematurely about giving Sen. Spector his support against other Democrats. I hope the voters disagree in Pennsylvania. Sen. Spector has already said he will vote AGAINST the EFCA should be a wake up call for the Labor Movement. All the Republicans want to do is bust unions that give the little guy and lady a chance to move into the Middle Class, the backbone of the Country and Economy.

If the Democrats are going to make these bone headed decisions, I am not sure that you guys can govern either. So the country suffers once again over vanity, and an old guy that should be ready to hang up his boots, if that is what is called for. Yes, I said it an old guy. Some people do not know how to leave the stage gracefully. The Republicans have kept him there for 29 years.
Witness him and the other Moderates voting out of the Stimulus Package Funding that could help with the Pandemic on Swine Flu because they said it was not necessary to make a point.

[DavePalen]

We need EFCA now. More unions will help the revitalize the economy. Cap and Trade will push up energy prices and that will help the economy. Immigration reform will help too (not sure how). Raising taxes will make entreprenuers more productve and produce more jobs. Health care reform, by bringing more government into the health system, will absolutely give us better health care. We should also crack down on the cost of prescription drugs. Think of all the new drugs that are in the pipeline that Europe and Canada are producing. Cuba has really good health care and there are hundreds fo new drugs being developed there.

[noamjunior]

I dont care if Obama endorses him - no way specter wins a dem primary in PA without supporting efca

[PhDcommonsense]

I agree with you. I have put my money where my mouth is. I have written all of them telling them there is no way they should support Spector over any of those loyal Democrats who have earned the right to their support.

I think President Obama over spoken in his enthusiam of Sen. Spector. I hope the Democrates are not as bone-headed as they are looking know, to lay down like dominoes. Sen. Spector has a very poor track Record on voting for things the Democrats care about. He has already told them he will not be voting for EFCA.

Sen. Spector is changing for self-preservation. He is like most of the Republicans, all they want to do is kill off the little guy and the Labor movement in this country. Those guys AND Ladies who are the real driving force behind this country in Taxes, putting children through college, and renewing America, and the big One keeping the ECONOMY GOING.

[Graywolf48]

There will be no Democratic primary challengers in PA. That was part of the deal. Biden, Reid and Obama will be campaigning for Specter. If a Democratic candidate mounts a challenge, it will be without party money and without DSCC support. Specter is going to be bad news for the Democrats. It seems in the Democratic Party, party loyalty accounts for nothing. Emanuel and his DLC creeps kicked Dean to the curb, helped screw Lamont for Lieberman and now they're going to do the same to Pennsylvania's progressive Democrats. Specter will be an albatross around the neck of the Democratic Senate leadership. It's going to be an interesting year.

[Mike169]

Gee by refusing to vote for cloture he condemns the EFCA. Why doesn't he vote for cloture and against the EFCA to at least give it a fighting chance?

[NeoStar9]

I think people need to patient. The man just switched, he isn't going to automatically change his feelings on somethings at the same time. Even if he weren't facing a hard primary if he stayed Republican I don't think he would have kept support for the EFCA. The version he did support and the current version aren't different aren't they? Perhaps it isn't pressure that needs to be put on him but the version itself needs to be looked at again if his support is wanted.

I would love to read the whole thing and know what changes this thing has gone through. I still would like to know what happens to those that don't want to join a union if one is created. How are they fairly treated if fairly treated at all.

To be honest while unions have benefits they also have their down sides. Like having to deal with people that are horrible at their job but protected to a degree because they are in a union. Or someone loses a job because it was decided that was a union position and the first person gets replaced.

[Mike169]

I still would like to know what happens to those that don't want to join a union if one is created. How are they fairly treated if fairly treated at all.

In an agency shop, where those who don't wish to join a union pay a maintenance of membership fee generally equivalent to the dues paid by members, non-members are treated the same as members. They are treated similarly because first they do pay maintenance of membership fees and secondly trhe law requires that unions represent every one fairly. I wish that those who are crying for fairness in all this look at right to work states where unions are required by law to represent workers who pay nothing to the union and receive all the benefits of having a union in place. If you don't think this costs unions money then you ought to see the cost of an arbitration these days.

[Mike169]

Like having to deal with people that are horrible at their job but protected to a degree because they are in a union.

You obviously don't understand unions at all. There is nothing and I mean nothing that prevents an employer from firing an incompetent worker. There are, however, in most contracts the rights of workers to be treated fairly. This means that the rules have to be applied fairly to everyone. It also means that the grievance system is not punitive but remedial. People who allegedly screw up are prompted by warnings, verbal and in writing, to correct their problems - you don't want to fire workers who correct their deficienciesI woul;dn't think. If they continue on the same path they may be suspended and fired. The equation here is that management must do their job as well. One thing I do notice is how wrongly viewed unions are in this respect. We can protect our members from unreasonable managers (who hasn't had one of them!?) but mamangement is held accountable as well. This is what really angers managements who feel they are always right.

[Budokan]

"Probably won't"? It WON'T help. Not one bit.

http://kennethmarkhoover.com

[wijg]

The netroots needs to step up and put some pressure on Specter to support EFCA.

[claudiam]

I think Specter needs to watch what he doesn't vote yea on. We Democrats are - one doesn't become a Dem just by saying so. The votes will tell the real story on Specter. claudiatucsonaz

[GAPeach99]

I've been saying this very thing sense he announced the switch.

[simplify]

How many...is that all democrats?

[dontvote4him]

They have no spine and will support it.

[000Jade000]

ANY Democrat that doesn't support the EFCA will pay a price. Corporate lobbyist-sponsored revisions of the bill will not be tolerated.

[chocolatecity]

The Steelworkers Union says that their support for Specter depends on EFCA.

[Halfwit]

You sound as stupid and intolerant as a Republican.

[WilliamL]

scary.

you fail to understand the Dems sold the American workers, union and not, down the river a long time ago.

please with the threats.