Specter Poll: Nearly Two-Thirds Of PA Dems Not Committed

Just released poll numbers, commissioned by Daily Kos but conducted by the non-partisan Research 2000, don't show the type of stable backing that Sen. Arlen Specter was likely hoping for in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

Thirty-seven percent of Democrats interviewed in the state said they would definitely support the former Republican. While only 16 percent said they would definitely vote for someone else, the more telling figure is found when you add in the people not yet willing to fully commit. Sixty-three percent of Pennsylvania Democrats are either open to supporting another candidate, committed to voting for someone else, or considering the possibility. In short: there is room for a primary challenge.

Whether the right challenger will materialize is another question. Head to head, Specter does well against his prospective opponents.

Specter (D) 56
Joe Sestak (D) 11
Undecided 33

Specter (D) 60
Joe Torsella (D) 5
Undecided 35

But those Democrats suffer not from poor standing among Pennsylvania Democrats but a lack of state-wide name identification. Fifty-six percent of those polled had no opinion of Sestak, 85 percent had no opinion of Torsella.

And yet, in a hypothetical general election matchup all three would defeat the Republican who seems poised to get the nomination.

Specter (D) 55
Pat Toomey (R) 31

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Sestak (D) 37
Toomey (R) 32

Torsella (D) 35
Toomey (R) 33

The headline of the Research 2000 poll was supposed to be that former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge would have faced a steep uphill climb in the Republican primary had he entered the race. But those figures -- Ridge at 33 percent, Toomey at 41 percent -- are now moot, with Ridge saying he won't run.

Ridge himself, in an interview with radio host Michael Smerconish, said polls weren't part of his decision.

"The polls people were sending were very flattering, very optimistic," he said. "But you and I both know that's today's snapshot. And it's a competitive environment out there and what voters think today may not be what they think tomorrow depending on the kind of campaign you run. So while the polls were very appealing, I must tell you if I'd have listened to the polls way back when, I probably would have never run for Congress or governor for sure. So polls have never driven a particular decision."

Ridge seemed content with his choice, and said of Specter's party switch, "He made that personal decision. I suspect I'm more comfortable with mine now than he may be with his."

Comments

[FreedomAgain]

I hope Specter gets voted out, and that a younger truly democratic thinker replaces him.

[huffy2001]

The spectre of Specter.

[den1953]

I am a PA Democrat and i would fully support Ed Rendell's wife if she would consider a run at PA senate run against Senator Spector. I beleive she has the knowlege to know what's best for all Pennsylvanians and will be loyal to the party!

[bayside]

Arlen has already stated he intends to vote republican policies, no on health care, no on employee rights, no to anything we citizens require to help us. Why in the world made him think dems. would vote for him when he wont support us..He is a centerist in everyway, thats republican with a d in his name..

[alice09]

Vote Sestak, a true and reliable Democrat.

[ywcachieve]

I think Specter may be trying to trick us.

[JamesOctopus]

I don't live in PA, but I'm going to donate to Sestak if he runs in the primary. I've read up on him and his positions and he's a LOT more in line with what I think a REAL Democrat should be than Specter is.

[nowarpleez]

Joe Sestack for Senate 2010! Admiral Sestack is a great person. Check him out on Rachel Maddow on Thursday night discussing "don't ask, don't tell". He has so much compassion and a wonderful spirit. I like him alot.

[Deja Peterson]

only two-thirds?

[timm0]

I didn't get called in that poll, but I am squarely in that 16% who will definitely not vote for Specter.

[StellaRay]

63% of dems at least question whether Specter is their best vote. This is very good news for all kinds of reasons.

Firstly, it should send a message to Specter that the people will not be so easily manipulated as they once were. This is what pain tends to do---make us pay attention. Bottom line, Specter doesn't have it in the bag, not even with Obama's backing, which I think will evaporate if Specter continues trying to be a mercenary. In other words, if he continues to think the democrats will save him because they 're so darn happy to have a potential 60th vote, even if it never materializes.

That whole 60 vote thing has been overblown. With or without Specter we all know the chances of getting the blue dogs to go along here, there and everywhere are nil. Forget about the number 60 it is irrelevant in today's democratic politics.

Secondly, it is gratifying to know that people in Pennsylvania are still holding out to make their own choice, despite the premature announcement of support from the White House---and one of the few mistakes I think Obama has made. You go PA, don't let the White House tell you how to vote.

Thirdly, more people are paying attention. Again, pain will do that for you. If Specter thinks he can relax into what he considers his "entitlement," he better think again. This poll shows that no one thinks Specter is "entitled" except Specter.

[karela]

That 60th vote is the reason that the President's stimulus package was able to pass and as a result, we're beginning to see some hope in the economy. This week I was visiting an Ojibway friend who lives on a very limited income. While I was there, the team came to evaluate her home for insulation under the stimulus. If she doesn't have to spend all her money to heat her home, she'll be able to afford groceries. On the other end, Wall Street seems to be feeling more hopeful too. So, there are consequences when we are able to break the filibuster and there are consequences when we aren't able to do that too. The question with Spencer is whether his vote will be there when the chips are down. On Meet the Press last Sunday, he surely sounded like he was talking to a republican constituency and not like he was appealing to a democratic constituency. If he wants to run as a democrat in PA, he surely didn't handle that interview well. He can't simultaneously run as the one who will keep the democrats in check---according to republican thought---AND run as a democrat who hopes to be elected. We do need that 60th vote. What's the best way to get it?

[Hatsone]

I am crystal clear the Arlan Specter is not behaving like a democrat.

[ywcachieve]

He sure is not acting like a Democrat. I think he is trying to trick us.

[tbone99]

the guy isn't fish nor fin - but he does smell bad!

[TParrish]

I am a Pennsylvania Democrat who was not polled, and I want Specter out. I do want a democratic senator from this state, but I want him to think like a Democrat, and VOTE like a Democrat. Specter decided to switch to the democratic party because it was politically more advantageous than calling himself what he actually is, a Independent whose votes have been bough and paid for by the banking, insurance, health care, and pharmaceuticals industries. They own him. He is chattel.

Come primary time I plan to do everything possible to put him on his porch in his rocking chair.

[Petey131]

I do not live in Pennsylvania but I will donate to his Democratic opponent.

[StellaRay]

You go T.

And come back here and campaign for money for a more authentic dem when the time comes. You can count on me for what I can afford.

[Craftyone]

Can't win as a Republican.
Can't win as a Democrat.
Imagine that. What a shock.

[TParrish]

Maybe the Libertarians will take him.