WHO: Swine Flu Could Infect 2 Billion People If Becomes Pandemic

The media's coverage of the H1N1 swine flu epidemic has been criticized by many for being overblown, fire-fanning, scare-mongering, overly hyped, and apocalyptic. However, statements Thursday from a senior World Health Organization (WHO) official seem to do the panic-prone and hypochondriacs out there no favors, predicting that if the virus becomes a pandemic, it could infect a third of the world's population -- around 2 billion people. According to Earth Times, WHO's health security chief Keiji Fukuda predicts that, "looking at past pandemics, a third of the world's population could be infected."

However, Fukuda, speaking to reporters in Geneva, later made note of the crucial distinction between those who will be infected and those who will actually become seriously ill, and he says he is unaware of any inclination by WHO to raise the epidemic alert level from phase 5 to phase 6, Earth Times reports.

The Thursday count for H1N1 infections passed the 2000 mark, with a presence in 23 countries around the world, but with over half the cases being in Mexico where 44 people have died, the New York Times reports. Additionally in the Times report are statements from another health security overseer, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, also predicting a further spread of the virus:

"We expect to see large increases in these numbers in the coming days," said Dr. Richard E. Besser, the acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on Thursday, both because of new cases, and because there are large backlogs of laboratory tests in many states. "The virus is continuing to spread both domestically and around the world," he said.

Dr. Besser also warned against "overinterpretation" of the relatively few hospitalizations in the US, predicting that the young, spring-breaker demographic that is most commonly afflicted lends itself to further spread in the future, according to the Times.

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Comments

[stargazer13]

ok I will put it another way

can you all say genetically engineered by man

[stargazer13]

come on mod you know it was on cnn ,s crawler

let my pending comment go

[UncleJimbo]

I give up,Who does say Swine Flu could infect 2 Billion people?

[Rod Davis 1]

Enough already... when are those in a position to do so going to start exercising some responsibility in the reporting and estimation of what this influenza incident is actually doing?

It is obvious that it is not the same strain of flu that is associated with the 1918 pandemic. The two deaths attributed to Swine flu are uncertain due to the other health problems those people suffered from in addition to the flu.

Get real... tell the truth - that you simply made a mistake in believing that this was the same strain that caused the death of fifty million people in a time when modern health methods and drugs were not available.

[wdw505]

well said

[stargazer13]

you assume wrong

[research]

don't worry!

It won't kill many rich people.

Unless it mutates in those 2 Billion people who catch it.

[wdw505]

don't not mutate in 1976

[research]

of course it did.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&hs=XVF&ei=8I4DStKgD478swOZ0-H8AQ&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=1976+virus+mutation&spell=1

viruses mutate.

The more poeple, the more mutations.

[stargazer13]

read up

[mazzetta]

being infected doesn't mean to die
as any kind of "mild" or seasonal influenza it'll have a death toll in the regions it spreads

Pandemia means world infection, but a world infection doesn't mean the infection will kill over "usual" seasonal influenzas' rate

[Bric]

All theories are interesting here. I would also add to them the Governments of Mexico and US. In Mexico the right-winger President Felipe Caldeon is politically isolated and facing many challenges like economy, lack of jobs, poor health and the drugs battle. In the USA Presidente Obama has very similar challenges plus his word not to expose the Bush Administration which was a disaster for Americans and the world. Europe gave it's rotating presidency to the Czech Republic wich has a (leaving)Primer Minister who is embarassing the whole Europe . And China is under a lot of pressure to take responsability as a global power. So my point is: Lets SCARY people as much as we (Goverments+WHO) can because they must feel that the officials are their only hope. Be nice with Calderon and World Leaders otherwise you won't get your pack of tamiflu. Poor swines.

[wdw505]

outside of the poor spelling..­.......pre­tty good

[MomfromTexas]

You have such an inviting personality. That's what I find so amusing about the conservatives, who come on this board and act like you do. All you do is give everyone another reason not to join your cause.

[anarchistoutpost]

I agree with you. It seems that the swine flu scare helps Calderon unite his power base by keeping Mexicans anxious and at home. But, it also helps the U.S. to keep Calderon in power. It's a real shame. It's more likely, given the history of H1N1, that it originated in the U.S. and was spread to Mexico by tourists than it is that those tourists picked it up in Mexico. Mexico's health care delivery system is terrible, like that in the U.S. Mexicans: don't be bullied into losing your civil liberties by Calderon's power grab! This is a great analysis of the issue: http://www.anarchistoutpost.com/2009/05/whos-interested-in-mexicos-failure.html

[Fronzeine]

thats what the point on http://www.flucount.org have been saying!

[MomfromTexas]

According to this chart, we've surpassed Mexico in number of confirmed cases.

[wdw505]

yet only one dead......­.as scary as it was in 76......wo­w

[Bric]

All theories are interesting here. I would also add to them the Governments of Mexico and US. In Mexico the right-winger President Felipe Caldeon is politically isolated and facing many challenges like economy, lack of jobs, poor health and the drugs battle. In the USA Presidente Obama has very similar challenges plus his word not to expose the Bush Administration which was a disaster for Americans and the world. Europe gave it's rotating presidency to . And China is under a lot of pressure to take responsability as a global power. So my point is: Lets SCARY people as much as we (Goverments+WHO) can because they must feel that the officials are their only hope. Be nice with Calderon and World Leaders otherwise you won't get your pack of tamiflu. Poor swines.

[calluna]

For those downstream here who are in the "what's the big deal" camp, keep in mind that the whole world isn't Duluth or Cincinnati, or even Chicago. Yes, here and in other parts of the world, it will no big deal, but we don't live in a crowded refugee camps (32 million+) or have HIV/AIDS (30-50 million) or TB (13 million) or malaria (250 millions cases annually). There are hundreds of millions of immuno-suppressed people out there, and all of them have a higher risk of death from a new, exotic virus.

[MomfromTexas]

Right. Just like in 1918, the soldiers returning from the war had compromised immune systems, which they think may have increased the death toll in this country because that age group, young adults between 20 and 40, were particularly hard hit.

[MomfromTexas]

And, BTW, can you imagine? You survive trench warfare and nerve gas, then return home, thinking you are finally safe, and people start dieing by the hundreds of thousands from the frickin flu! Woodrow Wilson had a heck of a job.

[wdw505]

i am in the US with insurance and a good doctor it is no big deal for me and mine.....i­mmuno-supp­ressed should panic if they like

[calluna]

Ah...a humanitarian. ;-)

[bloglogger]

Even "insurance and a good doctor" will be meaningless if, like in 1918, it mutates into a deadly strain. Those who got it in the spring back then were lucky; they just spent a few days feeling sick. By September, you could feel sick one morning, decide to stay home, and be dead by dinner the next day. Mutation is the danger--not the flu as it exists now. If its spread is contained in this milder form, then if (admittedly a big if) it mutates into a killer, the damage will be less widespread. Better safe than sorry?

[AngryOhioan]

Read his other posts. He is one of those people who gets off on people suffering.

[MomfromTexas]

I've been keeping up with this, and the numbers in the U.S. doubled overnight, from just over 400 to just over 800. The CDC website said that they now have a test for it that they are shipping to the states. I don't know if that means different CDC headquarters in different states or not, but the website says that the numbers should rise because states will more efficiently be able to test samples. I hope the samples are being tested at temporary CDC headquarters that have been set up in cities, like the one they have set up in Houston, so we have a real count, and this count is not dragged down and destroyed by paperwork. Is the whole thing overblown?

This is the way I look at it: Scientists who study infectuous diseases study trends. There are many similar trends to this flu and the one that hit in 1918/1919. That's reason for concern. Alarm? Not yet but definitely concern and vigilence. I'm not into conspiracy theories, and I don't believe this is all being done to sell medication and vaccines. It's being done for research. It's important. How important, we won't know for a couple years, but it's important.

[MomfromTexas]

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

[MomfromTexas]

See, these were the numbers on April 30th. 107 cases in the U.S. Today, a week later, 896 confirmed cases. I think that's a relatively large increase in one week from one virus.

[kdublya]

"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." - Henry Mencken

[freedomthrutruth]

Death rates mean nothing in terms of the number of people dying of so-called swine flu because it's easy to announce the number of deaths, but it's much harder to show convincingly that the dead ones actually died of swine flu. Let's assume I am a high official working for the World Health Organization, and I and my organization wish to deceive the whole world because we want the world to believe that a pandemic exists. We have our own reasons for wanting the world to believe this, and these reasons are both self-serving and evil, so we continue to tell the world that there are ever-rising death counts. What we don't tell, and prove to, the world is that the cause of death among the swine flu victims is something other than the swine flu.

[BlackTom]

Let's NOT assume a bunch of this stupid stuff. That is called wasting your time and energy, fantasizing about widspread, inexplicably evil intentions on the part of doctors and researchers from every corner of the globe.

[calluna]

It's a tough thing for the WHO, to whom I do not ascribe particularly evil intentions. Most people don't die of flu per se. They die of something that they got because the flu overwhelmed their systems. This was also the case in the 1918 pandemic)

If you die of pneumonia after suffering from H1N1, didn't you still technically die from flu? You probably wouldn't have caught pneumonia if you hadn't gotten the flu.

[BobSF94117]

For those wondering what the big deal is about a relatively mild flu affecting 2 billion people: the apparently rather high mortality rate. 2000 cases and 44 deaths is about 2%. But just looking at Mexico, with about 1200 cases and almost all the 44 deaths, you're over 3.5%. Apply that to 2B people and you're looking at 73, 000,000 deaths. (we still don't understand why the rate in Mexico is so high, but if the answer is poorer health care, there is cause to worry)

[AngryOhioan]

It is not just the mortality rate, which wouldn't have to be that high to cause problems. It is how many people infected and how many actually become sick/ need to be hospitalized. Even if the mortality rate is low if a huge number of people have to be hospitalized it will overburden the health care system.

[emcslead]

Maybe the swine flu will save the environment! 73M with instant zero carbon footprints!

[Diogenis]

Paranoia!

[BlackTom]

Paranoia is irrational fear that becomes a psychological disorder.

This disease is the first ever three-species hybrid (man bird pig) that is easily transmissable from person to person. This is what the CDC and other epidemiologists have been afraid of for so long, and the reason for previous bird flu scares.
This disease is being taken so seriously because it is exactly what the experts have been fearing. That is NOT paranoia. It is serious. The only reason dolts get hysterical about the hysteria is because they do not understand what is at stake.

People who cry paranoia are doing far more harm than good, and should really get a modicum of education on the issue before spouting off.

[wdw505]

laughing..­.....lots of things could be worse.....­.no reason to over react

[JulieCarol]

I have found that most of the people who are screaming that this is no big deal and that it is way overblown are just scared. They don't know very much about it either. They're the ones who are saying, "I don't eat meat, so I'm safe" or "If you haven't been to Mexico, don't worry about it, geez" The thought of a killer virus scares them, so they put their heads in the sand and don't want to know much about it.

It's funny that they are usually posting comments on forums or blogs that are talking about the virus. What are they doing there if they think it's no big deal?

BTW, as MomfromTexas was saying, "107 cases in the U.S. Today, a week later, 896 confirmed cases." Today the number is 1,639...co­nfirmed in the US. Almost doubled from yesterday.