Economic Recovery: Three Signs

Money Magazine:

(Money Magazine) Looking for the light at the end of the tunnel? Watch for these signs that the economy is bouncing back.

1. Managers say things are looking up -- Why it matters: The stock market and the President's economic team have been flashing hopeful signs, but what really matters is whether companies are feeling positive about their prospects. When they do, they'll expand, which boosts economic growth.

Read the whole story: Money Magazine

Comments

[Rosewren]

The supply of housing is presently affected by people not able to list their homes for at least what they owe on their mortgage. As soon as property prices start to rise, a lot of homes are going to hit the market again and the supply will still be huge.

[Kache]

The article's assertion that the Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index is a bellweather indicator is misleading. Of course ism.ws believes that it is. It is not. It is speculation at best.

The better indicator (the one the FED uses) is what is called "railroad loading tonnage". It also includes truck tonnage and measures movement of manufactured goods in the supply chain. The reason it is a good indicator is that it actually measures where company's have "put their money where their mouth is" - these are ordered shipments with purchase orders standing behind them. That index shows a positive extending 4 months into the pipeline, the first positive in over a year.

[taikan]

Based on this article, it appears that one of the best ways to become financially successful is to ignore whatever Money magazine says.

[nezumi]

I cannot make heads or tails out of this post. The problem seems to be with what it implies. It suggests that the recovery, which will come certainly, will be beyond anyones control like a natural disaster. It neglects the fact that the type of recovery is dependent on ourselves: wether we will strive for greater social security, a more just income distribution, or whether we just hope to close our eyes, go to sleep and try to wake up again when someone else / the economy rebounds without our doing.
And, most importantly, the precise indicators to look for that indicate a recovery will depend on this choice by all of us. If we, as the author, look at employment and house ownership, it will remain business as usual, with the middle and lower classes waiting for force majeure to change their fate. It does not have to be like this.

[fleaba]

Uh, this info is totally bogus. I think that someone should be catching up on all the Money Planet info from This American Life.
Banks don;t do loan mods because they would rather post a loss in a year than right now. It doesn't make sense....a lot more people could stay in their homes if the banks would do the loan mods. It also would mean that the banks would not lose as much money. It's a win-win, but the banks don't see it.

And the job situation.­...hello..­.it's all a complete mess. I've been looking for work since January. I've gotten a few interviews, but nothing solid. Hopefully this week. IT's pretty interesting to go to an interview with a complete idiot who disregards almost all protocol, but is in a position of power. Ugggh!

Until we have a manufacturing sector again, we are going to struggle. I loved that article by Naomi Klein last week equating the U.S. to Argentina. It's time for the workers to take over the factories.

[sueinmn]

Not as long as they can keep juggling the books and gov pays off toxic debt to them. No incentives to help us.

[vagabondvet]

The point of this article is to throw darts in the dark and count the score afterward. The people interpreting these data are the same ones that interpreted them wrong to begin with.

[RandVictims]

"Good for Wallstreet = Bad for Mainstreet" That's how I translate it.

[AnnfromCA]

What's odd in CA is the growing problem of squatters in foreclosure properies. Meanwhile, the banks aren't even putting them on the market.

I presume they are waiting for some kind of deal from Washington.

[LeeCalif]

This isn't even a Bu llsh t article. It's a horse sh it article.

[not going2take it]

The US economy is still in the INTENSIVE CARE WARD . . .
noting that outward vital signs are showing stable.
The PPT is doing well to keep sepsis at bay.

The US banking system (the patient) is at the moment propped up
by massive infusion of capital, but remains on Life support
from a IV drip from the fed. The gangrenous banking system
is eventually going to have to be further dealt with,
by lopping many of the infected limbs off.

Not strong enough to stand alone, much less walk
without support from tax payers to pay the
horrendous bill of its stay.

The GLOBAL ECONOMY is awake and conscious
(at the moment) but is fixed in some wild-eyed
delusional state, which leaves many to
question if it ever will recover????
Is it even possible?

[EinChicago]

Obviously the only real true sign of a recovery will be when the fringies on the left and the fundies on the right both start wailing and gnashing their teeth that the president has succeeded. Hating the idea of any good news and desperately hoping for eth president to fail is the one thing the extremes on both side of the political wings share here at Huff po.

[Kache]

Politics does make strange bedfellows, doesn't it? According to these two extremes the FED must be doing a pretty good job, since both extremes want to abolish the FED, throw the nation into anarchy and seize power for themselves.

[sheilaofmiami]

These indicators are small, and are easily upset by more bad news.

Temps are hired not only when times pick up, but to keep costs down. No insurance, no unemployment to pay. Temps are on the short end of the stick and the only jobs out there right now.

I temped, when I needed to. It is not a sigh of recovery, but of a lack of greater freefall. Still much to watch and suffer.

[meemu]

There's a beautiful new Townhouse around the corner that's had a 'SOLD' sign on it for over two months---still no sign of anyone moving in.......

[sueinmn]

Investers are making a killing after forclosures. Buying cheap hoping to sell high later. Few can afford to do this but money is still out there. Just not in our hands.

[Kache]

Remember the guy who sold that house two years ago? He sold that 200K house for 250K back then. It's now back on the market, after forclosure, for 150K.

[sueinmn]

How ever many people dont like Clinton for his Monaca lies, this was certainly a time of good fortunes. Jobs were plenty, money was easy (not cheap), surplus in the till and we still had oversights! The GOP put all the focus on the little cigar incedent while they rewote financial laws and stole away the country. Amazing how we fell for the grand scheme!

[KeysE2S]

Clinton did sign Gramm, Leach, Bliley into law, though. There's plenty of blame to go around on that one. Check out the voting record on SR900.

[RandVictims]

Clinton was indeed a Wallstreet puppet. He actually did more damage to our economy than Reagan or Bush (authorized those middle-class killing trade deals) but he skated through on the tech bubble so nobody would notice.

[sueinmn]

When unemployment is still rising and UI benefits running out, causing more CC defaults and forclosures, plus another wave of ARMs are due to reset, how can a recovery be????????
Do we believe what we read or what we see? I know what I believe and thats in jobs and homeownership! Not corporate control, deceit and lies!

[sheilaofmiami]

You so have it all right. We are not in any sort of recovery, this is just a bit of a bounce up, it will tank again, and a few more times before the real recovery begins, it is a ways off yet.

[Rosewren]

You both are spot on.

[jerrypl]

What a crock of propaganda!! Temp jobs indicate that employers continue to hire cheap labor with no benefits. It is a way of keeping national wages pressed down. New home construction inventories are still world's away from being bought out. More and more college graduates will be strapped with large loans to pay back, while unable to find relevant work that can help improve their overall insolvency. The rate of under/unemployment continues to increase.

The worldwide data does not support this propaganda. Container ship are not shipping. Empty containers are stacked at idle ports. Industrial equipment is not moving.

The nation's Treasury wealth continues to get handed off to the financial-monopoly capitalists instead of the real economy capitalists, who are the one's that can improve the economy.

http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com