Will Tesla Be A Giant In 10 Years? Join The Conversation!

Daimler AG just bought about a tenth of Tesla Motors -- the guys making the coolest-looking electric cars right now. But one HuffPost Green commenter says that Tesla shouldn't "sell out:"

Don't sell out Tesla, in ten years you could buy Daimler.

Bold claim! So we took it to Twitter. Right away, Green Sheet's Jay W. Yarow said "no way." IT Journalist Danny Bradbury thinks it's a dumb move for Daimler.

What do you think? Let us know on Facebook or Twitter! (Or right here!)

Quick Poll

Could Tesla EVER Buy Daimler?

Yes. I am also looking forward to when Seventh Generation buys Clorox.

No. Tesla probably can't even buy a high-end Mercedes.

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Comments

[MarkCowestian]

One of the greatest human errors of this age is to put trust in unproven technologies. People glom onto what they perceive to be the wondrous attributes of electric cars, seemingly without knowing the most basic flaw in elevating them to such a lofty level.

Electric cars run on batteries. So far Tesla only has claims on the range that their best model can obtain. Revelations on the cost of replacement of these batteries is hard to come by from Tesla. This has all the earmarks of a scam bent on obtaining government funding for questionable research.

Further, the most outlandish claims on record for electric energy storage are coming out of Zenn Motors and Eestor. After a number of years of research they still can not present in public a working prototype, yet expect anyone listening to believe that their nano technological supercapacitors will last for the lifetime of the owner, have unbelievably short charge cycle times and energy storage capacity approaching that of a full tank of gasoline. Unfortunately for the taxpayer they seem to have gotten the interest of the likes of Lockheed Martin Marietta and perhaps Government Motors (formerly GM).

[1n1n1makes3]

As a Prius driver, I whole heartedly support the environmentally friendly car movement. I believe however that whilst "green" may be "in" at the moment, most people honestly put other factors before the environment when buying cars.

The Tesla is one of the only "green" cars that appeals to the innate status stigma most of us have... I mean it's fast, sexy, cool AND environmentally friendly. Even Jeremy Clarkson from Top Gear, known for his wisecracks about environmentalists, is impressed by the Tesla Roadster, which by the way is an amazing show. To see it go to:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUw43oC2A34

The Tesla is the Porsche Cayenne Turbo of green cars. It should make it.

[pltmcs]

Will Tesla be a giant? Maybe or maybe not, but some EV manufacturer will. As I learned at www.ProudlyMadeInAmerica.com, it will take the smart grid about the same amount of time to be able to support a significant number of EV. So ten years is probably on the early side to see who the giant EV producers will be. Maybe a better time frame is 15 to 20 years.

[sensiblethinking]

I love this stuff. Run the car for 5 years, send all the toxic batteries to the dump and put more in the car. Mother earth likes toxic batteries more so than toxic gasoline byproducts??!

And lets not forget all the new coal plants we will have to build to power the cars because sunshine and wind isn't going to do it and god knows that radicalized progressives can't stand nuclear power. They would rather melt the planet down with "man made global warming" than let one single nuclear power plant provide us with greenhouse gas free energy.

[BlackbirdHighway]

The batteries use lithium. It's non-toxic. The lithium is recyclable. Tesla has already set up a recycling plan. Look these things up before posting.

The sun and wind are doing just fine thanks. Half of my electricity comes from the sun, and only 28% from coal.

If everyone used fossil fuels for only 28% of their power, we would already be where we need to be by 2050. We can make that happen. There's is nothing stopping us except people like you.

Your post is most uninformed.

[Alan Lachapelle]

Owned. In fact, recycling is the desirable source of lithium since many natural sources are controlled by less than friendly nations.

[Greenguy25]

I made the comment that Tesla could buy Diamler in ten years and I did this without a whole lot of thought, but since it seems to have created some good arguments, I want to defend my thought process on this.

Tesla Motors currently has one of the leading technologies for EV's in the world, granted they are not the only ones and maybe their production process will be transformed over the years and yes, they are way to expensive for today's market. But when you add together all the individual aspects of this company, you have something of great value. Their body designers can challange any of those at the big three, their technology is tops in a field that is poised to grow far beyond what most people can even imagine.

As for the cost of the vehicles Tesla produces, consider this, GM has spent 100 times more in R&D to develop a Fuel Cell test vehicle than Tesla has spent to produce a road ready EV. FYI, the GM fuel cell vehicle would retail for about 1.2 million as it sits today. Point here is that production volume has a lot to do with cost and we need to give Tesla time to apply their technology in a true commercial environment.

And yes, I stand buy may original comment that Tesla could buy Diamler in ten years because if I were a betting man, I would bet on EV's in the future, not German engineering.

[jeg]

I'm sorry, but I have to disagree. Tesla's battery technology isn't new. It isn't innovative. The only thing impressive about it is that it works, and it remains to be seen how well it will work long term. Tesla is using laptop batteries for their car-- 6,381, if I recall the number correctly. Laptop batteries are designed for a different load pattern than a car, they tend to have a 3 to 5 year lifespan, and in some cases, have exploded.

I'm not saying any of these apply to a Tesla roadster-- I'm unaware of any fires, explosions, or even cell failure yet.. But I'm skeptical of a general purpose battery being used the way Tesla is.

I can't find any (reliable) cost estimates on the cost to manufacture the Equinox fuel-cell vehicle-- I doubt GM spent 120 million to put 100 of them on the road for Project Driveway, though, and I doubt the Clarity FCX is that expensive either. Regardless, FCV's are in a completely different league from anything Tesla is doing, and platforms like e-flex should be the comparison.

Finally, you're assuming that Daimler isn't also pursuing EV research-- Since they have multiple EV's in development, that's not really a safe assumption.

Oh, and the Tesla Roadster? Designed by Lotus.

[vfx]

Actually Tesla obtained 17 patents for their battery, electronics and motor technology. Safety was primary concern followed by long life by nominalizing temperature.

The FCX is a million dollar car. Honda is saying 750,000 per vehicle but the price of platinum used in converting hydrogen belies that number.

Lotus is a job shop. They are considered one of the best in the business at designing cars and many auto manufactures consult with them regularly. (like the entire MR2) Smartest thing Tesla did was going to them.

[whatbox]

I'd like to add to vfx's excellent comment that the powertrain for the Tesla Roadster (the most innovative system in the car) was completely designed by Tesla's engineers (based on work from AC Propulsion).

jeg, just because the cell chemistry (lithium cobalt oxide) in the Roadster ESS was not new, it doesn't mean that there was nothing new or innovative about the ESS (battery pack). Each cell is thermally isolated and monitored by a sophisticated battery management system (BMS). The pack maintains the cells temperature at, or close to, the optimal temperature (25 degrees C) for cell longevity. As an added bonus, this also helps prevents thermal runaway of individual cells and the ESS as a whole. And btw, the number of cells is 6,831, not 6,381. You might want to read this (The Tesla Roadster Battery System):

http://www.teslamotors.com/learn_more/white_papers.php

A couple more things: yes, these cells have a 3-5 year lifespan in laptops where they are subjected to high temperatures and, quite often, a 100% state of charge (SOC), which combine to reduce the lifespan of the cells dramatically. The Tesla ESS battery management system keeps the cells balanced and maintains a SOC between 20% and 80%. As for thermal runaway events, to my knowledge there have been only five of these events in consumer products, despite the fact that over one billion of these cells have been produced and made it into customer's hands. That's an extremely small failure rate.

[Helder Januario]

With all the ongoing research, investment and interest it is only but a matter of time until they come out with a more affordable battery. Take for instance AltairNano (http://www.altairnano.com) that came up with a new type of battery (Next-Generation Lithium-Titanate). The company boasts that their battery not only charges faster than conventional batteries (10minutes rather than hours) but also has larger capacity, safety and reliability.

At the same time the investment in renewable sources of energy is also increasing. I anticipate that solar, wind and tidal power based methods of energy production will get more efficient and cheaper to produce.

Tesla's future prospects...

Kia, Huyndai, Honda, Toyota, Nissan all had their start at a time when there were significant odds against them to succeed in a market controlled by much larger auto manufacturers. However they prevailed. To say that the same feat is not possible for a company like Tesla is ludicrous.

It's inevitable that the electric car will take over the automotive market. It has many more advantages than other alternatives (lighter, more efficient, versatile, clean, reliable, better power to weight ratio, more responsive and wider power band, increased cabin room, etc...)

Another approach that I've seen uses in-hub electric motors which provide even better benefits such as (increased mobility, increased control (true AWD), increased cabin room, and better handling).

Nicola Tesla's genius was way ahead of its time.

[jeg]

I agree that Nicola Tesla was ahead of his time... but he much preferred alternating current to DC, and would think having a battery to power the car is silly. He'd much prefer broadcast power.

On the downside, that would wipe out pretty much every computer circuit in the neighborhood.

[vfx]

Actually Tesla and Edison partnered on an electric car project. Both believed the battery powered car was the future.

[savroD]

It will really be nice to see the price of oil & gas be forced very low because of reduced demand.

[rf-hawaii]

And then forced high again, artificially, to head-off a resurgence of oil usage.

[BlackbirdHighway]

I remember a few years ago when I kept getting all these emails suggesting that we should not buy gasoline from Exxon on Wednesdays.

That didn't seem to work. Exxon made more profit than any company ever in the entire history of mankind, and is now the biggest company on Earth. It turns out that if you drive a gasoline powered car you are going to buy gas for it, and Exxon could care less whether it is on Wednesday or any other day of the week.

Now on the other hand, if you drive an electric car, and don't buy gas anywhere, ever, then that might actually make a difference.

[SteveDenver]

If Tesla builds cars that still run well and look decent in 10 years, the carmaker will be a big deal.

[rf-hawaii]

The simplicity of electric cars will tend to make them last a long time.

[Fretchen]

To the asked question: No.

Think about it: What would we do when millions of folks hook into the grid to re-charge their batteries? Wow - talk about cap and trade charges. What are we ging to do with billions of lithium batteries? They take over a thousand years to bio-degrade. Talk about an enviromental disaster.

Obama prefers alternate fuels, corn-based only. This keeps his political base but makes no sense. As shown in Brazil, sugar based ethanol is cheaper to produce. Corn-based ethanol produces approximately 1 gallon of ethanol for each four gallons of gasolin-equivalente used. Sugar-based (sugar cane in Brazuil) reverses that ratio.

The other available answer is hydrogen-fueled vehicles. No detremental emissions and no Obama support. In fact, he ordered GM and Chrysler to stop development of hydrogen powered vehicles. GM had planned to introduce them in 2012. This technology does not use food to produce power and the output is water, not CO2.

Amazing. Obama has killed it.

[jeg]

Cellulose based ethanol is better, and probably closer than you think. Lithium is a short term solution... much better battery tech is on the way.

As for hydrogen, he didn't kill GM and Chrysler's efforts (reduced funding, yes), but fuel cells remain hideously expensive, even though they've been around since the 1960's. Hydrogen isn't cheap to isolate, it's a bit tricky to store and ship-- Sure, we could get around it, but I'd much rather see neighborhood fuel cells with natural gas lines. Minimal emissions, reduced grid impact, and cheap power to charge said electric cars.

At the end of the day, hydrogen is just a storage medium. You put energy into creating hydrogen, you get slightly less back when you combine it with oxygen to make water. For all intents and purposes, it is a battery technology.

[whatbox]

You are woefully uninformed, and you assume the same of your readers...

[vfx]

So much wrong, so little time.
The DOE has said that if 70 percent of all cars in the US were electric, the grid could handle it. Cars charge at night when power plants are normally powered down.

Lithium is classified as non toxic (unlike old lead batteries) The recycle value is far too much to put in a landfill anyway. Car repair shops would never just throw them away.

Studies on the return on biofeuls are not good. The petrochemicals, Gas/diesel, croplands, processing and transportation of ethanol makes them more expensive than oil based fuel. Brazil has burned and destroyed millions of acres of rainforrest to grow sugar-fuel for that tiny country. The USA could never scale that up.

Tesla is delivering a car that is 100K that runs on batteries that you charge at home. The Hydrogen cars that are testing now (due in 2020) are closer to 1M, need 120,000 filling stations built (at 500M each), and it costs more to make hydrogen than the energy you get out of it. Better to take that energy and put it straight into a battery. That's why they killed the research money that has gone nowhere for the last 20 years.

[StephenJK]

I'm putting the house on ZENN MOTOR COMPANY and their partner EEstor. If the technology that EEStor is developing (testing permittivity just last week and exceeded their own estimates by 20+%) pans out, I can tell you it will bring the oil titans to their knees in quick order. Nothing would make me happier than to see the ZENN (ZERO EMISSION NO NOISE) people have their day in the sun. They plan to put an affordable EV on the market with EEstor's EESU technology powering it.

That said, TESLA is DEFINITELY in the wrong game right now. Wake me up when they start making a 15,000 dollar EV that everyone will buy. Not this 80K crap.

[jeg]

I sincerely hope EEstor isn't a scam. They have yet to publicly demonstrate a working model, and so far, their actions seem more related to developing their stock price, rather than a viable product.

I hope I'm wrong, if I am, I'll invest the instant they go public, because I think their technology (or something like it) is the future.

[whatbox]

Stephen, I would strongly urge you to reconsider investing everything you have in ZENN. Ian Clifford is a nice guy and a true believer, but it looks like he has been duped by Dick Weir (of EEstor). Dick has been promising Ian a commercial version of their barium titanate ultracapacitor "by the end of the year" for the last three years, and so far Ian hasn't even seen a working prototype.

Ian sounds increasingly defensive & desperate in each new interview I see him in.

ZENN will still be able to produce the City Car without the EEstor ultracap, but they will have to default to Li ion batteries (either LiFePO4 or LiCoO) to get the energy density they need. That will put them in the same area of battery tech as Tesla, but without the head start.

[StephenJK]

I hear you. However, you have to consider the ramifications of rushing a working prototype out for the vultures to circle on. EEstor has, I believe, around 30 patents on the technology from the powder used to create the plates to the production lines used to create everything from the powder to the batteries themselves. The permittivity milestone was HUGE this past week. ZENN's stock price has quadrupled in the past month and continues to ignore market trends while it pushes 5 bucks a share again. ZENN has a big stake in EEstor and Ian Clifford is understandably defensive in the face of so many skeptics. I would be dog tired of answering questions regarding another companies (albeit, so directly linked to the success of his own company) progress on a "prototype" when you have no control over it. I just have a lot of faith in EEstor I guess. I pray they have something ready by september/october.

[vfx]

We all pray that EEstor will deliver but would have bet it all on that horse the other day?

Tesla is starting high end.
How much did you pay for your DVD player? $1,500, 1,200, 900, 400, ...$42 dollars? The Roadster is the first model. Wait for the early adopters to drive the prices down.

[rf-hawaii]

"Wake me up when they start making a 15,000 dollar EV that everyone will buy. Not this 80K crap."

Pay attention! Tesla is a start-up with limited funding. They went the novel approach of starting with a relatively expensive sports car to enable them to require payment long before delivery. And to prove that all things are possible -- range, performance, etc.

Their current offering outperforms quite a few gasoline-powered cars in it's class in every way. That is propelling the electric car business across the board. If they never sell another car they will have done more for the industry than anyone else.

[Harrier]

If the govt wanted to make a superior battery that could address auto needs they would. That is the only thing preventing the oil industry from being destroyed.

[rf-hawaii]

The government can provide money and other incentives from time to time. Let's not start expecting them to build things. Yikes.

[lizardbrain]

Seems like a classic win-win scenario. Tesla gets money and credibility boost and Daimler gets time to market and foothold in new market. Love it! http://www.dasolar.com/solar-energy/solar-powered-cars

[jayes]

Tesla should be bigger and stronger, and this is probably one of the best ways to insure it.

[EinChicago]

Who knowesa, in ten years tesla may actually have delivered a whole 100 cars or so.

[whatbox]

Tesla have delivered over 400 cars as of May 20th 2009.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/tesla-roadster/1624-production-delivery-status-45.html

[vfx]

They delivered #500 this week. The rest of the 1200 on order should be to buyers by Oct.