Nate Silver: How Republicans Could Sacrifice Hispanic Vote And Win White House

Five Thirty Eight:

Since the Republicans, to say the least, do not seem particularly inclined to curry favor with Hispanic voters by playing nice on Sonia Sotomayor, it's worth engaging in the following thought experiment: Can the Republicans win back the White House in 2012 or 2016 while losing further ground among Latinos? And if so, what is their most plausible path to victory?

I think the answer to the first question is 'yes' -- although it depends, of course, on exactly how much more ground they lose, as well as how much ground they could hope to gain among white voters.

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Comments

[kannita]

Give them hope, Nate. Give them hope. This scenario will only happen if all the people from the states you listed have no decency and care not a wit about what people like Tancredo, Buchanon and others say about Judge Sotomayor. And only if these states have no women voters either. Definitely a pipe dream! I am female who lives in the so-called Socialist part of VA, I know what I am talking about. Never going to happen! Let me keep talking.

[BigFrigginBen]

I respect Nate Silver's gangsta, but I have to respectfully disagree with him on this one. Republican are marginalizing their party as a southern regional party. New Mexico, Nevada and Arizone will be deep blue come 2012. No Doubt!!!

[Budokan]

I live in Texas and I'm here to tell you the RepubliKan party down here is very worried about the changing demographics. It's like a low-grade panic among 'Pugs down here, they ARE worried. If Texas doesn't become blue in 2012 it will at least be a fight for the 'Pugs to win...and that right there is a WIN for us because the GOOP can no longer take Texas for granted.

I think NM, otoh, is solidly in our corner. We just have to keep fighting and taking states away from the GOOP so we can further marginalize them. But as for Texas there is no doubt the RepubliKan Part is extremely worried. If they lost Texas it's impossible for them to ever win another presidential election because the electoral numbers would be against them -- they would be starting too far behind.

[rabiddog6708]

They should be worried because in the years to come, the white male voter will be the minority in Texas. No way the Repubs win the White House without it.

[truegreen]

i usually agree w/ Nate Silver, but I'm not buying this argument. Sorry, Nate.

[jcko]

"They can sacrifice Hispanic votes & win the WH".......­..........­..

Yeah, but w/ that also goes their sense of decency.....can they win w/ not having that?

[tomasedison]

GOP has no "leaders" and no credible "ideas" what are they going to WIN with ?

Certainly not by using that tired old "Compassionate Conservative" claim again.

[scorpioleidy]

Never thought I'd say this but ... s hut up, Nate!

[liberalrebuttal]

Ha ha ha

That will never happen. Wisconsin ? A tall order indeed.

[SidChimaera]

by winning new hampshire and minnesota?

fail nate.

[mergina]

Of course, they barely get any of it now.

[Bobrobert]

Sorry...

The repuk-licans have lost this white male vote - and 30 other white male votes that I know of personally.

The christian right satanic attempt to PRAY for rain in Denver convinced every male member of my methodist church - 1/3 were democrats already - to abandon the republican cause and vote for Obama.

The christian right has become so negative and nasty they do not see anything that is place before them if it doesn't conform.

May the force be with you... the repuke-licans are toast.

PS If my church is any indication... Arlene is about to become a retired Senator come next election... he doesn't stand a chance in hades.

[lockewasright]

Failure to separate church and state always deforms the religion... always.

[hackerblaster]

haha. There is no way in hell rethugs can take back the white house anytime in the next decade. what a joke.

[imsosure]

I have news for you Nate, just because you are living in a fantasy world doesn't mean everyone else is.
You must be out of your mind, the GOP is so irrelevant the best they can do is make up things like you're doing here.

[factotem]

What a loser's way of thinking about the next election! ...especially when everyone perceives the Repubs as total losers right now.

[MizLiz]

The republicans have learned nothing. The next presidential election is going to be the most racially divisive in history. You're going to see vicious ads you never thought would get airtime. They'll win the southern states, of course, because they'll be appealing to peoples' worst nature. They'll use race, religion, whatever.

But it's not going to work.

[Theo67]

I think you are right. The sad thing is that we're already seeing that these republicans are now blatantly racist, and make bigoted statements, and there is not a sufficient outcry against them when it happens. That's what is making it permissible. Part of it, I think, is that traditionally minorities have had to just turn the other cheek. But, I think now thinking people are seeing that racial differences are a positive, and that diversity enriches a culture, rather than diminishing it. I'm hoping that the more these non-thinkers are flushed out from the rocks under which they hide, then the sunlight will do it's job as disinfectant. The more people see how ugly racism is, the more they'll be loath to endure it. The last week of railing from the right wing has been agonizing, but maybe people are realizing how bad these people can actually be.

[Mugzi]

I agree to a point...don't discount the south...Mississippi just elected for the first time a black mayor in Philadelphia, MS. Frankly, I never thought that would happen...

[disgustedbyitall]

That map is hilarious. In Silver's scenario the GOP wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Washington. The GOP shoe-horned the country so deep in the financial toilet it's gonna take a flush the size of the Potomac to free us, but all those unemployed people are gonna march into their voting booths and pull a lever for those fools again? They haven't come up with one useful idea this year and have yet to even level any serious criticism at their own leadership for putting the country in the crapper. What is Silver smoking?

[LeighAnnes]

Nate is brilliant. He's just using some hypothetical premises in this analysis that probably won't happen. Kind of like the "what would happen if" essays my son is required to write at school. This scenario is POSSIBLE but highly improbable.