"Obama Effect" On Lebanese Election Touted By Some, Doubted By Others

The results in Lebanon's parliamentary elections Sunday come as somewhat of a surprise to observers and participants alike who expected Hezbollah's March 8th movement to increase its clout and shift the political balance away from the pro-Western March 14th movement. That did not happen, and now many commentators, such as Paul Raushenbush at Beliefnet, are touting the "Obama effect" as a possible driving force, following President Obama's speech to the Muslim world from Cairo last week.

It seeems as though an American President may be affecting the Iranian elections again, this time positively. From the recent polls it looks like Ahmadinejad is in trouble.

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Likewise in Lebanon.
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We don't know the exact effect that Obama is having on these elections. But it appears from the 2004 results that the Cheney/Bush presidency bolstered the enemies of America. Four years later it looks like the Obama's presidency may do the opposite.

Likewise, the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder entertains the "Obama effect" possibility, but suspends an absolute judgment on what is no doubt an unquantifiable phenomenon.

Today, the results of Lebanon's election may or may not be a referendum on relations with the West, with Israel, and the foreign policy ideals held by Obama. But they're definitely good news for the White House, and if there's anything to be gleaned about momentum in Shiite politics, it's moving in a direction that Obama probably likes far better than the alternative.

However, others are more skeptical of the implications of the March 14th movement's success, as well as what bearing Obama may have had on it. Dr. Omri Nir, a Lebanese political expert and non-faculty professor at Hebrew University and Ben-Gurion University, tells the Jerusalem Post that it's far too early to make any conclusions. Nir also goes on to dismiss the notion that Obama had any real effect on the election:

US President Barack Obama shouldn't take credit for the result of the Lebanese elections, said Nir. "I didn't see an impact of the speech [from Cairo] on the elections campaign," he added.

Nir attributed the unexpected outcome to internal politics among Lebanon's Maronite Christians. Lebanese citizens usually cast their vote based on the people running and not according to party lines, he explained.

As for Iranians, who go to the ballot box Friday to decide the fate of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a new poll reveals that very few in Iran view the United States favorably, despite Obama, according to the AP. However, it may not even matter. Reformist challenger Mir-Hussein Mousavi has all but closed Ahmadinejad's lead in the past month, according to the Telegraph, and, as The Nation's Robert Dreyfuss reports from Tehran, the country is awash in a "Green Wave" (the color associated with Mousavi's campaign).

Interestingly, an American Security Project report released in late April concluded that the "Obama effect" on the Muslim world was falling while global terrorism was on the rise. From the Huffington Post's earlier report:

As for the sanguinely viewed "Obama Effect" on the Muslim World, the report laments that US approval dropped following the Israeli-Gaza incursion earlier this year. And, notably, the report states that, "Unfortunately, only 21% of Afghans believe that an Obama presidency will make a positive difference in their country, compared to 16%, who think it will make things worse." However, more hopeful data is also cited that indicates America's tarnished record from the past eight years is not beyond repair. Thus, the "Obama Effect" is not an outrightly delusional mis-perception, but there is a dearth of evidence to suggest it has yet to have any meaningful impact in the Muslim world.

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Comments

[sherwoodforest]

Of course there is a connection. And right after Bush invade Iraq, Ahmadinejad was elected. And folks- Ahmadinejad is the right wing of Iraq, so fear tactics that used to work are now not working as well, with a sane president like Obama in charge.
Remember duct tape and orange alerts?

[indyjar]

The election results can be attributed directly to the actions of Hezbollah last year with their march on Beirut as a means to gain veto power in the complex structure of the parlimentary system lebanon mandates. Although Hezbollah wanted to gain some exposure in the election. I think they are ultimately more comfortable in the "oppostion" role rather than in the majority. Israel wanted Hezbollah to win, just like Hamas did in Gaza, and we all know what recently happened there.

[petera63]

Obama effect?! Gimme a break!
Read the Lebanon press: it was the 2006 war effect.

[kwinyan]

The Israeli press, not the Lebanese, is touting the elections as a consequence of the 2006 invasion. Analysts were concerned that the incident could translate as a pro-Western loss. It makes no sense that the Lebanese would claim that an Israeli invasion was productive in establishing a more Westernized parliament.

[Hanzi Lai]

Obama effect or not, it is more important for America to respect the outcome of fair elections in states around the world. Even if the Hezbollah won, it is the voice of the Lebanese and it reflects on how they feel. This respectful and honest approach touted by Obama in his Cairo speech will have a much more powerful effect than one feel-good speech. For far too long, US policies to the world is fraught with hypocrisy and double standards. But to have this change of policy will demand utmost courage, vision and persistence. If Obama stands true to his words, he will undoubtably go down in history as one who changed the world for the better.

[FrozenNorthObserver]

ah yes, "the speech" now theres some change,,,right?,,,
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/43400

[kwinyan]

It's my understanding that Ahmadiejad was not that popular among Iranians before Obama was elected, or after. It's really very presumptuous to attribute the Hezbollah loss in the parliament to the Obama administration -- as much so as it would be to attribute an American presidency and senate party win to the influence of specific governments outside the US.

[sherwoodforest]

Ahmadiejad is not popular with educated people, college students and women.
Kind of like the situation here in America when GWB was Prez for 8 years thanks to the tax sucking red states

[JohnnyLee]

How about the Iran effect? Is this a sign that the region is becoming wary of an empowered Iran? Now that Iran has emerged as the victor of the US war in Iraq many Persian Gulf nations are becoming nervous that Iran will become the most powerful country in the region.

[Sheila Williams]

If that's what make you ReThugs feel better, then have at it. you are absolete, the republicans will lose big for a time to come.

[myarmsaregreen]

"RASMUSSEN: Voters Now Trust Republicans More than Democrats on Economic Issues."

Keep talking pal.

[sherwoodforest]

Rasmusseen- trusted source for BS polls.
Course the headline could have read- Democrats leading on Education and Social Security.
Spin miesters are in charge here

[constitutional 1]

If the election results in Lebanon are a result of the Obama "effect",the conservative swing in the European elections must be attributed to the Obama "effect" too.

[Theo67]

We'll take it. If you had any education on the matter, you would realize that the European definition of "conservative" is more like the American definition of moderate Democrat. So, yes, Obama probably can take credit for the Democratic results in the European elections, if you insist... The existence of strong social programs in Europe means that there are many more left-leaning parties, because they already take care of basic human necessities like good educaiton, health care, etc.

[Yank in France]

Two points: First, no one is saying that Obama convinced a majority of Lebanese to vote for the ruling coalituion, only that his far more balanced and world friendly stances have significantly blunted the anti-American argument used so effectively by the most repugnant forces in the world, Hizbullah and the Iranian president being a couple examples.
Second, European "conservatives" are about the equivalent of ultra-leftist Americans. In any case, Obama had no impact of European elections, and no one is claiming a link between the two regions,...except you.

[andycan]

In 2004 it was crystal-clear that Cheney's mean rejection of Khatami's offer of dialogue with the West
was a major cause for Ahmadinejad's victory in the Iranian presidential electiomn.

Conversely, Obama's very real dialogue with Islam may help moderates: The March 14 coalition victory in Lebanon is a beginning of a confirmation of this point.

[Gewyne]

Lets put this in perspective - Hezbollah fielded 11 member sand all 11 members won - so in that light it is not a defeat for them, they won everywhere they stood.

The there are the actual votes - Opposition got 842,000 votes, Loyalist got 720,000 votes. That's about 54% opposition and 46% loyalists... however due to how the Lebanese Governments 128 seats are split even if you had 99% of the vote you will only receive a certain number of seats. This spread whilst giving a unity type governemnt of all factions hides the fact that the Hezbollah / opposition wont he electyions on numbers of votes, but lost on number of seats.

The seats break doen like this are 64 for Christians, 29 (27 for Shi'a and 2 for Allawis), 27 for Sunnis,
8 for Druze

All the parties won the seats expected with just the Christian seats alliance deciding whether March 8 or 14 got the biggest advantage.

So no change really, and due to the rather weird system there never really will be (unless proportional representation is brought in, in which case Hezbollah and allies would be in control of the Government by a 8% lead.

[Yank in France]

I have no idea whether or not Obama had an impact on the Lebanese elections, but I do know that Hizbullah had been slated to win for months. All the opinion surveys had them ahead of the govt since their militias easily overcame govt forces and their supporters in Beirut several months back. My bet is that Obama did indeed have an indirect impact in that he has raised hope -- just a little bit -- among certain voters, especially the Christians. My guess is that Obama's presidency is much, much harder for the Iranian tyrant to play against than was GWB's. Ditto for the hapless Chavez in Venezuela. However, I agree that all this will be soon forgotten if the new US president proves unable to pressure Israel into making even limited concessions, such as stopping the building of existing or new settlements.

[blutigeroo]

They shouldn't just stop building new settlements, they should withdraw back to the 67 borders. NOW!

[PatrickWalker]

Will people still push "the Obama Effect" in a few years when the region witnesses how bankrupt his words are when not followed up by action?

It's been speculated that the appointment of Dennis Ross was to ensure that any dealings with Iran and the region as a whole get scuttled, while the words of Obama are little more than window dressing for the American public. To allow the idea that the US was open to talk and was rebuffed by those pesky anti-American minions in the Middle East. The solution will then be, "well, we tried talk. Now we use bombs."