El Nino Conditions Return to Affect Weather

WASHINGTON — El Nino is back.

Government scientists said Thursday that the periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can affect weather around the world, has returned.

The Pacific had been in what is called a neutral state, but forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say the sea surface temperature climbed to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific in June.

In addition, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said temperatures in other tropical regions are also above normal, with warmer than usual readings as much as 975 feet below the ocean surface.

In general, El Nino conditions are associated with increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific and with drier than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

A summer El Nino can lead to wetter than normal conditions in the intermountain regions of the United States and over central Chile. In an El Nino year there tend to be more Eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

The forecasters said they expect this El Nino to continue strengthening over the next few months and to last through the winter of 2009-2010.

"Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Nino may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy," NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement.

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NOAA officials noted that not all El Nino effects are negative. For example, it can suppress Atlantic hurricanes and bring needed moisture to the arid Southwest.

But it can also steer damaging winter storms to California and increase storminess across the southern United States.

The warming of the ocean can also lead to a reduction in the seafood catch off the West Coast, and fewer fish can also impact food sources for several types of birds and marine mammals.

A recent study by researchers at Georgia Tech suggests there may actually be two forms of El Nino, depending on whether the warming is stronger in the eastern or central pacific.

While the current warming seems to be strongest in the east, the more traditional form, government forecasters did not categorize it.

If the Georgia Tech study is correct, this would be the type of El Nino that reduces hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The other form, centered farther west, reportedly seems to promote Atlantic storms.

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On the Net:

NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov

Comments

[joshquasimoto]

I really fail to grasp all the basic facts out there regarding human/anth­ropomorphi­c influence on climate.
The deniers believe that this is just a normal cycle which our environment is going through and that Humans have no influence on it or if they do it is negligible right? But how can you ignore some basic facts. Is it not the case that there are currently more Humans on this earth than there ever have been? Yes. Is it also not the case that all of these humans compete for natural resources? Yes. Is it not the case that current technology used to create energy takes carbon sequestering resources, such as coal, or wood and then use these to create energy and thus releasing carbon back into the atmosphere? Yes. Last time I checked only humans harvest coal for energy. Last time I checked coal fire power plants are the most abundant form for making energy in the western world if not the entire world. Well if there are more humans and more coal factories, let alone more things like cars or cattle which also emit carbon gases then at our current human population is it not evident that there has never been a time like this in world history?

[lbrty 2112]

Josh, a time like what in world history? A time of higher than average temperatures? Higher than now you mean? You can't be serious.

[Mike Barden]

Yes he can.

[alvdh1]

Lbrty,

It is spelled liberty. You might want to tackle spelling before you advance to the more difficult subject of science.

[alvdh1]

Liberty2112,
A time when the population of the Earth is exploding with ever increasing demand for limited resources and our lifestyle. 3 billion new consumers in China, India, Indonesia, Latin America are trying to catch up with us. Apparently it hasn't registered in your mind that we are about to get slammed with the most vicious commodity inflation to ever pounce on humanity. Furthermore, it is not likely that the civilizations who heavily rely on
energy commodities will fare very well hen it hits. For this reason alone, you ought to be looking at sources of energy and energy efficiency measure to insulate yourself from the pending hyperinflation posed by the scarcity of resources.

I know your type. You listen to Fixed News instead of reading about energy and natural resources and mostly science. If you do read, it is only the stuff Fixed News is touting on any given day instead of both sides of issues. In 2030, demand for oil will reach 119 MMBOPD and supply will never see the day above 92 MMBOPD. It will take $45 trillion just provide the infrastructure to get it to 92 MMBOPD and maintain it.

[realpolitic]

The Milankovic cycles, which is the spherical path the earth has around the sun, has in the past led to the comings and goings of Ice Ages. But its cycle is usually about 100,000 years. Temperatures are climbing quickly now due to co2 output.

[23000Days]

You're exactly right, and you aint seen nuthin' yet!

[BannedNBoston]

El Nino is back that gives us cool weather in New Hampshire good.

!,400 years ago there were no glaciers in Norway.
There was regular snow on the mountains.
Polar Bears and Penguins survived the last sun cycle and they will this time too.

[KillTheMessenger]

Yawn.

[gladiator777]

Yawn...ya, you aren't worried either are ya, gore the bore does cause this reaction..­.

[jsgaetano]

"Sun Cycle". That's the current denier talking point... yet it's funny they claim the sun is hotter now without realizing there are actually scientists who study the sun (not that conservatives honestly care about science, or facts).

The scientists who study the sun say that not only has the sun's temperature been stable for a very long time... the sun is actually in a period of low activity, so it can't even be blamed on solar flares or some other such nonsense.

Poor little Goopers... reality truly does have a liberal bias.

[SonofLiberty1]

We are at SOLAR MINIMUM now not Maximum and the difference is only 1/10th of 1% anyway.

[realpolitic]

"Reality truly does have a liberal bias." I like that one!

[lbrty 2112]

Banned, don't you think we've had enough cool weather in new hampshire lately? I'm calling it "the longest spring"

[realpolitic]

When did conservatives shut off their brains? Is that unthinking approach what you call liberty? Liberty is being unread and knowing nothing, i suppose!

[lbrty 2112]

Josh, don't you think it's been cool enough here in New Hampshire? I'm calling it "the longest spring".

[MGhamma]

Wow, your 400 years old? What's your secret?

[BabblingBrooks]

Ugandans blame drought on "angry gods." This is exactly as sensible and defensible as blaming it on manmade global warming.

[MzTexas]

Actually, that's not true, but then you won't be convinced.

[realpolitic]

Yes, MzTexas, they are pointed out to be wrong time and time again, but one can never convince them. It is the nature of the right-wing philosophy.

[Aramingo]

What science do you base your comment on?

[emily00011]

science is for lefties, the righties prefer thumping around a bi b le

[whatbox]

Keep trying! You'll pass grade 10 science some day!

[realpolitic]

You mean the fact that scientists from multiple disciplines go out into the field, such as the ice caps, the bottom of oceans, the coral reefs, to collect hundreds of thousands of data observations, almost all of which support the idea of man-made warming, is the same as what the Ugandan gods think? You have very little respect for science and scientists, don't you? I think your Ugandan god is Fox News!

[cruzking2000]

Right on, brother.

[mamacat]

Sometimes I wonder whether it is worth the time and effort to respond to these GW denying posts. Among scientists, there hasn't been any debate for more than a decade now. Still, maybe one or two of these posts questioning GW are from posters who are sincere. For their sake, we need to keep trying to educate.