Stats Guru Nate Silver Issues Financial Challenge To Climate Skeptics

fivethirtyeight.com:

John Hinderaker at the popular conservative blog PowerLine reports that it's been cold, cold, cold in his home town of Minneapolis, Minnesota, going to far as to compare it with "The Year Without a Summer", 1816, when global temperatures were abnormally low as a result of the eruption of Mount Tambora.

Selective memory is a powerful thing. I'm not particularly when the fact that it's cool or rainy in your hometown one afternoon became subject for worthwhile blog material, but you have started to see this all the time on certain conservative blogs, probably led by the example of Matt Drudge.

Therefore, because I'd like to see more accountability on all sides of this debate and because I'm tired of people who don't understand statistics and because I'd like to make some money, I issue the following challenge.

Read the whole story: fivethirtyeight.com

Comments

[guinganbresil]

Here is a time scale that is worth discussing­...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vostok_420ky_4curves_insolation.jpg

It looks like we are near the end of an interglacial - this would imply a precipitous drop in temperature (in thousands of years... I am not an alarmist.)

This data (you can't really see it on this scale) indicates CO2 FOLLOWS changes in temperature. Cause and effect would imply that something else is driving temperature.

This data has been used to confirm a climate sensitivity to CO2 of ~3 degrees C for CO2 doubling

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/archive/2006/ice-age-climate-test-confirms-concerns-about-future-warming

However, if CO2 concentration is an effect and not a cause, then it would be more appropriate to look at the CO2 Sensitivivity to changes in climate. There are credible mechanisms (solutionof CO2 in ocean water...) to explain the dependance of CO2 on temperature.

[guinganbresil]

I wholeheartedly concur. Counting every late snow storm as proof AGW is a hoax is just as disingenuous as counting every sweaty polar bear as proof that CO2 is evil.

The selection of the data set over which a trend is calculated allows quite a margin for mischief.

[JulieSA]

Yes, and Silver chose a dataset that only starts on June 21. The NWS counts June 1st as the start of meteorological summer, and they say Minneapolis's temps since then have in fact been well below average.

[JulieSA]

Which, of course, as a short term weather condition, is still not proof of anything regarding climate change.

[ohiomark]

When "global warming" stopped after 1998, the climate alarmists had to come up with a new term to scare everyone into believing that if they pay higher taxes and have more of their freedoms taken away, that this would "save the planet". So "climate change" became the new "buzz word".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw

Clean air and water are a good thing, just stop telling me it's going to "change" the climate, because it won't. The sun and solar cycles have more to do with our climate than anything else. Problem is that Al Gore and the other alarmists haven't figured out a way to tax the sun.

Get over yourselves Libs, you can't change or control the climate, just adapt.

[KHAAANNN]

Hey, dip$hit, Global Warming (as you insist on calling Global Climate Change) has NOT stopped.
The oceans continue to warm up, and as 80% of the planet's surface, and 95% of the heat/CO2 sink, that is a BAD thing. Don't believe me? Go to NOAA and look it up.
Just because the surface temps of SELECTED areas in the USA are cooler than usual (tell that the residents of Arizona this year) does not mean anything has stopped.
You don't understand something so therefore it does not exist. Nice circular logic there.

[guinganbresil]

As I recall, the AGW models predict the warming to be most evident in the upper troposphere over the tropics - increasing surface and ocean temperatures do not support the hypothesis that the warming is due to atmospheric CO2.

If CAUSE is not CO2, then draconian measures to control CO2 will have no effect of the temperature (even IF there could be enough world-wide compliance to even impact CO2 levels.)

[FROG1]

Hey, dip$hit - here's some NOAA data for you:

Sea ice data:

2009 Extent: 5.8 million sq m - Concentration: 3.3 million sq m
1997 Extent: 4.3 million sq m - Concentration: 2.7 million sq m
1980 Extent: 4.7 million sq m - Concentration: 3.0 million sq m

From the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Interior ice is also increasing. According to NOAA GISS data winter temperatures in the Antarctic have actually fallen by 1�F since 1957, with the coldest year being 2004. All the while global CO2 levels have gone up, and Al Gore, the alarmists and the main stream media have been crying near catastrophic warming conditions. They regularly show Antarctic sea ice shelves breaking apart, which is an entirely normal process (though they never tell you that part).

[RomeoMD25]

Goldman Sachs to be carbon regulator?

So does this mean that freebooting Goldman Sachs could be the de facto regulator of the carbon market?

As the global warming bubble inflates and then bursts, will Goldman Sachs self-regulate all the way to the bank… making record profits at the expense and misery of taxpayers and consumers?

[FROG1]

make any sense to you??? no - these fruitcakes in the WH roll up their sleeves to take a $hit!

[BlackbirdHighway]

You are so completely wrong.

2005 was the warmest year on record, so after 2001 the world got hotter.

Eight of the ten hottest years on record have occurred since 2000. The coolest year of the 2000's was still warmer than all but one of the 90's.

The 2000's were the hottest decade ever, even warmer than the 90's, which were warmer than the 80's, which were warmer than the 70's.

Please stop posting your nonsense on the internet.

[ohiomark]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3624242/There-IS-a-problem-with-global-warming...-it-stopped-in-1998.html

[leftcoastindy]

When "global warming" stopped after 1998"

HaHaHaHaHaHaHa

Whatever you say dude. I'm sure you only care about the facts.

[lilpeg]

Mr. Silver; you could ask anyone who does not believe in climate change to become/talk to a gardener. Things happen in the garden a few weeks earlier than they used to. Weeds seem to be of the sort that grow well in a zone or two to the south. I don't think plants lie!!!

[VikingQuest]

GuruMatt Silver isn't right when it comes to his graph, we in Minnespolis have not had 100+ degree days yet this year . . .

[VikingQuest]

A strong northerly wind is prompting the National Weather Service to call for a high today of 64. If that proves out, that would be 2 degrees below the record cold high of 66 set in 1939.

"This [typically] is about our warmest time of the year," said Weather Service meteorologist Matt Friedlein.

[rfshunt]

Then take him up on his bet. Win real money - you're bound to, because you know better!!

[JulieSA]

This is what the National Weather Service says this summer so far in the Twin Cities:

"Cooler than normal temperatures have prevailed with summer averages at area sites ranging from 1.5° to 5° below normal."

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=29753&source=0

[jsgaetano]

It doesn't take Nostradamus to predict there won't be a single Gooper taking the bet.

Accountability, like reality, is kryptonite to conservatives.

[RomeoMD25]

What controls the temperature on the earth and mars is the sun.
"The Inconvenient Truth" movie that was produced in Hollywood and directed by Al Gore is full of opinions and scare tactics.
i just read an article on huff-post you should read too understand what motivates-­Exxon,Mons­anto,JP Morgan invest millions to fund this bill
"The Top 10 Lobbyists On The Crowded Climate Battlefield"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/20/the-top-10-lobbyists-on-t_n_205868.html

[rfshunt]

Great news! You should be able to clean up by taking Nate Silver up on his bet.

You're going to put your money where you mouth is, right?

[JulieSA]

This is what the National Weather Service says this summer so far in the Twin Cities:

"Cooler than normal temperatures have prevailed with summer averages at area sites ranging from 1.5� to 5� below normal."

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=29753&source=0

[jsgaetano]

So you are going to take Nate up on his bet, right?

[JulieSA]

This commenter there has it right.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/07/challenge-to-climate-change-skeptics.html#comment-5487305654215976794

Also, just as it's silly to say a cool spell disproves global warming, I wish I had a Jackson for every article I've seen on this site about local warm spells, implying the cause was AGW . I remember one of the big contributors here citing a warm winter in the NE as proof. Meanwhile, Colorado was having horrendous blizzards.

[rfshunt]

Glad to hear you admit that one of the mainstay talking points of the global warming denier community is silly.

Progress, it's a beautiful thing.

[JulieSA]

That's not a mainstay talking talking point of the "deniers". We've always made fun of people who cite one hurricane or one regional heat wave as proof of AGW. Al Gore has been doing this for years.

[leftcoastindy]

Funny, I don't remeber a single article suggestiong a warm spell proves AGW.

[JulieSA]

"Stossel admits there's been warming, but thinks we need to wait for more evidence before we do anything about it. (Perhaps evidence such as the deadly heat wave now scorching the U.S. and straining our electric grid?)"

http://www.huf.fin.g.to.npo.st.com/la.u.rie-d.av.id/stossels-myths-may-be-on-_b_25322.html

[Hedgehogging]

The debate is not climate change, it's whether humans have actually caused to entire Universe to warm or not--this is the true debate!

The most interesting fact about the man-made global warming group is that they will attack and blame everything on the surface but no one is talking about the root of the cause--actually no one seems to even have a clue about the real cause.

The real cause has been the "buzz word" in Washington and Wall Street lately. It's something that Ron Paul has spent his entire career trying to warn people about and that is the FEDERAL RESERVE.

The Fed and it's cheap fiat money and easy credit are the root of all of our problems on Earth.

The Fed helps to create:

--Plastic in our oceans miles wide
--Families with 2 cars to every member
--Cheap goods from China
--Population increases
--Power consumption increases
--Nat Resources consumption increases
--McMansion increases

The list can go on and on--and I'm sure you can think of your own.

This is why every single person who cares about Earth should be on the phone to their Senator and Congressmen to ask him/her to support HR 1207. This is just one step to help stop JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs from destroying our planet....

[RomeoMD25]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal gas that trees and other plants need to survive, just like oxygen (O2) is the principal gas
that humans and other animals require.
Trees absorb CO2 and release O2-- animals inhale O2 and exhale CO2. See how nice this all works!

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is not to be confused with its poisonous evil cousin carbon monoxide (CO), which can kill humans and
animals in just a few minutes. Life as we know it could not exist without carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.

[Tommygun264]

Yes, we exist due to a BALANCE of gases in the atmosphere. And when you produce CO2 faster than it can be absorbed and converted back to O2, you bring change to the environment and weather patterns. Hence the term "global climate change". For more than a century we have been churning out more CO2 than the planet's ecosystem can handle and only now we are seeing the results. The earth existed with higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere than we have now, but that was in prehistoric times, BEFORE MAN EXISTED. If we continue to do this, the earth will still exist, only humans will not be able to survive. Perhaps you are happy for humanity to behave like a virus, mindlessly reproducing and expanding until the resources which allow us to survive are depleted, but people who are concerned about the continued survival of the human race, who want to fulfill our responsibility as stewards of the earth, are not.

[ccclj]

Where is the change? Minny's avg temp is the same as the historical norm.

[Tommygun264]

Then you should answer the challenge and prove Mr. Silver wrong.

(crickets)

That's what I thought.

[Frank Smith]

Read the terms of the challenge:

You are eligible for this challenge if:

1. You live in the United States and provide me with your home address and telephone number (I will provide you with mine) and,
2. You are a regular (at least once weekly) contributor to a political, economics or science blog with an Alexa traffic global ranking of 50,000 or lower.

It's been cool so far this summer in most of the country, so it's a safe bet things will even out. Still, I'd take his bet in a heartbeat if I met the criterion. ;O)

[leftcoastindy]

What change are you talking about? AGW does not in any way depend on Minn summer temps for one year. that would be 1000's of temps locations from all over the world recorded over decades.

[planetjeffy]

Funny how the same people believe that the earth is 5000 years old, man lived with dinosaurs, carbon dating is a scam, fetal stem cells are evil, good christians don't have sex, blah blah blah

[RomeoMD25]

Exxon Mobile Funded latest climate bill(interesting)

Industries and individual companies with a stake in the landmark House climate and energy bill poured money into lobbying early this year

Exxon Mobil Corp. spent the most within that group, paying $9.3 million on lobbying the first quarter of this year.
Last year the company spent $29 million, its highest level ever.

Carbon and CO2 (carbon dioxide) are fundamental for all life on Earth. CO2 is a colorless, odorless, non-toxic gas.

[leftcoastindy]

Carbon and CO2 (carbon dioxide) are fundamental for all life on Earth. CO2 is a colorless, odorless, non-toxic gas."

Wow! Really? I wonder if Al knows. Do you think he talked to any climate scientists since he started paying attention 30 years ago?

[Elizabeth44]

I'm glad the "official" terminology is "climate change". Because of the lack of scientific understanding, "global warming" was getting ridiculed everywhere every cool day. This constant ridicule was getting people to dismiss "global warming". Far more people have complained about the "weird" weather. Their scientific understanding is lacking so they don't understand that as the planet warms, the weather patterns shift to accommodate the results. I would hope people would want to inform themselves about the changes to come, but I'm afraid the majority prefer to be ignorant.

[MisterHands]

Only an i.diot thinks- because it snowed in December, climate change is a hoax. It's like saying California didn't have a wildfire today, they're a myth.

[tierone]

bingo!

[ccclj]

only an id believes a career politician with no scientific training who stands to make 100's of millions off his preaching.­..

[a6intruder]

"Statistics lie, and liars use statistics".

[Birdman]

Only someone who doesn't understand them will say that.

[Principaldad]

Statistics never Iie. However, Iiars often manipulate statistics.

[Tommygun264]

And the pub war on science and education continues onward, over the cliff's edge.

[entrenchedhoosier]

So you are saying that you are not an @ssh#le, but you are the wh#le @ss?

[escribacat]

Ha! That Nate Silver is the smartest kid in town.

[thundermummy]

"I'm tired of people who don't understand statistics"

Me too. But look at our education system.

[gcallaghan]

I know what you mean. 80% of college graduates don't understand statistics while the other half never use them once they enter the workforce.­.

[totaldisbelief]

they can't even make change for a dollar

[thundermummy]

LOL!

[ccclj]

According to Nate this summers avg temp in Minny is the same as the historical avg. Wouldn't that argue there is no climate change what so ever and we are all be conned? He shoots himself in the foot with that argument.

[VikingQuest]

Bingo . . .

A strong northerly wind is prompting the National Weather Service to call for a high today of 64. If that proves out, that would be 2 degrees below the record cold high of 66 set in 1939.

"This [typically] is about our warmest time of the year," said Weather Service meteorologist Matt Friedlein.

[hark]

No, you are wrong. You should be able to figure out why. Comparing the summer temperature in Minnesota from one year to the next, or the average over the last thirty years (that's how long the period is that they measure averages, or norms) won't reveal the effect of global warming because it is only a fraction of a degree per year, on average, over the entire globe. Normal weather patterns from one year to the next will mask the results in any one location. And even the gradual rising of the entire globe isn't uniform. The trend is up. Study the graph that you will find at NASA/Goddard and you will see global warming is unmistakable, quite dramatic in fact, but you can't measure it from your thermometer at home, over one summer or even over one year or two years.

Nevertheless, Nate has the odds on his side, because temperatures are rising, and temperatures worldwide are higher than the current norms over the last thirty years on average. That is, if he makes 1000 bets, he's going to win more times than he is going to lose. He knows this, because it's an indisputable fact that temperatures have been going up for the last thirty years.