Nate Silver: Stop Panicking About Health Care Delay

FiveThirtyEight:

To hear the defeatism and paranoia on some liberal blogs this afternoon, the "timeout" that Harry Reid and the Senate called on health care today -- they won't vote on the measure before the August recess -- is just about the stupidest thing since Chris Webber, pictured at left, called a phantom timeout in the 1993 finals, costing his team a technical foul and the Michigan Wolverines the national championship.

It isn't. It is, first of all, inevitable, and second of all, about as likely to do the Democrats some good as some harm, although that may depend on certain exogenous factors that are relatively outside of their control.

Read the whole story: FiveThirtyEight

Comments

[johnnygoodwud]

nates the man, didn't he know in late aug. 'O' would win in nov.? supposedly both obama and mccain did some real internal polling and both new obama would win in aug. hence the hailmary with palin. the polling the campaigns talk about, is NOT the internal polling they do.

[libster4]

I love geeky smart men.

[judyx]

So do I. :)

[vonPinto]

If Nate says so, I believe him.

[ReedYoung]

Okay.

[snesich]

Nate,
Don't you realize how much you're going against the MSM narrative on this? I mean, don't you realize the the story called "Obama's Health Care Plan Isn't Going To Work Out And People Don't Like Him Very Much Anymore" is the Michael Jackson story of the week?

How dare you take a more detached, objective view of this! The MSM are the ones who should be deciding what is really going on, not you!

[biabouman41]

Allow me to debunk the nonsense we hear from the Republicans about health care in Canada.
I have close relatives who live there and one brother who recently migrated here from Canada. In Canada employees pay a minimum of about $3.80 and employers about $6.00 per week.The maximum are about $26.00 for the highest paid. You will still be covered if you lose your job, Your family, children, elderly, all of your family is covered. You cannot be declined because of prior disease, You have no deductibles, whether treated at the doctors office or at a hospital. You owe nothing for treatment.
My brother who recently moved here tells me that he suffered sciatica and each of 6 times he went his waiting time was less than 15 minutes, except for one time when it was an hour and ten minutes. This included Diagnosis, x-rays, and treatment, and specialist referral. He compares this treatment to going to a clinic in Atlanta for treatment for an infected hand and having to wait 2 hours to be seen and being told by the nurse that the service he got that day was prompt, even after paying about $15,000.00 per year and numerous deductibles.
My brother feels that the added tax in Canada is about $6,00.00 per year, and is a much better deal than cheaper taxes in the US and about $17,000.00 of premiums and deductibles in the US.
Almost all relatives prefer Canada

[freethinkergirl]

Here is how it looks in the US.....

1. 46 million (15%) of Americans=no health insurance in 2007.

2. $2.4Trilli­on spent in 2008, 17% of OUR GDP. $3.1Trilli­on by 2012, $4.3Trilli­on by 2016. Healthcare costs=major threat to our future.

3. US spends/person on health care than nations providing universal coverage. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says: a. USA spends 17% of GDP b. Switzerland spends 10.9% of GDP c. Germany 10.7% d. Canada 9.7% e. France 9.5%

4. Small businesses are ki11ed by health insurance payments a. Employer-based premiums rose 5 percent in 2008 and rose 5.5% in 2007 b. Less than 24 employees=­6.8% rise c. In 2008, employees paid a 12% rise over 2007. d. Average US worker pays $1,600 or 120% more/year over 1999. e. Insurance costs increase four times faster than American wages

5. Evidence shows that care in the US isn't good: a. USA infant mortality rate=7%, while leaders=2.­7% b. U.S. rate of mortality from treatable conditions is 1/3rd higher than leaders. c. Only 50% of Americans with diabetes+33% with coronary heart disease receive proper care

6. 2008 Costs for 47 million uninsured=­$87Billion­=10 yr cost $870Billion 2007 Medical uninsured bad debt=$25.4­Billion, increased 9.5%/yr=10 yr cost of $433Billion So, Adding $870Billion + $443Billion is over $1.3Trilli­on if we DO NOTHING for Uninsured

[zendem1]

The second reason why the delay might be OK for the Democrats is because of the economy. Nobody much seems to have noticed, but the Dow is now over 9,000 and at its highest point of the Obama presidency; the S&P is nearing 1,000 and the NASDAQ has gained almost 55 percent since its bottom and has moved upward on 12 consecutive trading days. There are ample reasons to be skeptical about the rally -- it isn't supported by strong volumes, and it's almost entirely the result of surprisingly solid corporate earnings numbers rather than the sorts of figures that Main Street cares about.

Why aren't the Democrats talking about this?

[mharg11]

It's too early to start singing praises over the stock market. The big boys and corp. america that manipulate the market will make sure it goes down if the Administration starts smiling. Everyone can see the numbers, including the woman on fix news who said on Monday, July 13, that the Dow could go under 8000 when it opened. I have been loving it every day as the market goes up. It shows they never know what they are talking about--and I was just surffing the chanels as she made that statement. Let us all smile in silence

[ThanksMatt]

Sounds reasonable - glad he's here!

[LBaby]

I heart Nate Silver - one of the best polling and political minded sites on the internet - not to mention, CORRECT in its predictions and readings. I bookmark him and go to his site every time I need a dose of reality...

[FlamingLibrul]

Thank you Nate, I really do feel better, after having read your article. You were also a voice of reason when Sarah Palin first showed up in the 2008 election campaign- when liberal bloggers were freaking out that Obama might be doomed. The media does its part to facilitate the perception of doom and gloom. Let's stop falling for it.

[ByersL]

Nate always calms me down. If it wasn't for him, I might not have survived the election cycle.

[liberalNmoderation]

Mr. Silver...
How DARE you sir!?
How dare you bring logic into this?
We were perfectly fine freakin out over this, then you had to show up with common sense!
Thanks alot!

[Hopeington]

ditto Thanks Nate

[jelly450]

Well it looks like someone has hired a stylist. Nate is looking a lot hipper these days.

[melissamsouza]

This is one of the best analyses I've read recently, sober, rational and down-to-earth. The media spin against Obama (I imagine motivated by their advertisers from the medical-industrial complex) is getting quite annoying. They are indeed childish, twisting and spinning every shred of news into a negative, when this is just part of the normal legislative process for a poltical timebomb like this one. I agree with Nate and his readers that it is quite normal for Obama's approval numbers to be slipping into the mid-fifties, and nothing is very dramatic about that. I do think the President needs a break from the public--he is getting overexposed, and until there is something more concrete to talk about, with details, I think he should give us all a break. Even those who love him are getting kind of tired, kinda like eating sweets for several straight months until they get a little nauseating­....Just take a rest Mr. President--you're beginning to slip up (the Gates comments were unfortunate, sorry to say). Press reset for yourself, not just foreign relations.

[MinisterMelinda]

I concur with your entire post. You are very insightful.

[propitiousmoment]

He's doing fine, and the Gates comment was not a slip-up.

[ModernTimes1]

Mr. Silver obviously has been taking MJ sized does of X.A.N.A.X. good for him. Someone is having fun..

[sizogee]

Huh?

BTW, Xanax isn't an acronym.

[oldcliche]

I think it was supposed to be another joke on Silver.