Karzai Leads In Polls Going Into Afghan Presidential Election

KABUL — A new poll released Friday shows President Hamid Karzai has a commanding lead over other candidates contesting next week's Afghan presidential election, but his main challenger has dramatically narrowed the gap.

Some 44 percent of those interviewed in July said they plan to vote for Karzai in Thursday's election, a rise of 13 percentage points compared to a poll conducted in May.

If no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote, the top two finishers will face off in a run-off. That could lead to a coalition uniting around a single, more powerful candidate to try to defeat Karzai.

Karzai's main challenger, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, has surged in popularity, the poll showed, with 26 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him. In the May poll only 7 percent supported him.

The poll, based on face-to-face interviews with 2,400 people, was conducted between July 16-26 and funded by the International Republican Institute, a non-governmental organization that receives funding from USAID, the U.S. government aid arm. The poll, which sought to strike a representative sample along ethnic and gender lines, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Some 56 percent believe Karzai has done a good job in leading the nation as it faces growing Taliban insurgency and uncertainty about its future.

And despite Taliban threats, some 90 percent of those surveyed said they plan to vote.

The militants have said they will disrupt the election and called on the people to stay away from polling centers. Elections authorities have said that some 10 percent of nearly 7,000 polling centers will likely remain shut, most of them because of bad security.

Most of the country's most violent regions – the south and the east – are where the country's ethnic Pashtuns live. Karzai, himself a Pashtun, could see his returns lowered if insurgent violence keeps Afghans there from voting.

On Thursday, Karzai said he will offer government jobs to his chief rivals, an offer which was dismissed by Abdullah's camp.

Karzai also ordered Afghan security forces to observe a cease-fire on election day.

(This version CORRECTS the month of the poll from June to July.)

Comments

[Academic]

05:17 AM on 08/17/2009

Why isn't any intelligent person surprised by this prediction? With all the drugs money as well as that being pumped into his campaign by his western backers what other result should one expect?

Professor Dr. Stanley Collymore.

[loki]

12:42 AM on 08/16/2009

reminds me a lot of American politics. Karzai, who pre-us going into Afghanistan was the head negotiator for US oil corporations who were trying to get permission to put a pipeline through their country from the Caspian sea to try to get the oil to the gulf for transport out. (hence then for Iraq and the want for Iran).. Karzai was put into power by the US after we took over, and amazingly enough, he is always elected back into power. I am thinking that as long as he does what he is told, he will be in power. The minute he starts to think for himself, he will end up like everyone else we put in power. Such as Noriega, Saddam even the Shaw of Iran. All puppets for us, and strings were cut by us when they would no longer obey orders, becoming tyrants and enemies of the US. Funny how that works isnt it.

[Durango]

05:27 PM on 08/14/2009

While I think Karzai was handed an impossible task I also think it is time for him to go.

i always felt like he was the choice of the West not the Afghan people. And while I respect what he has done, or tried to do I think he has been less than successful.

Time for new leadership.

Not that anyone in Afghanistan gives a rats backside for what I think.

Still, I hope for the best. the Afgani people deserve better than they have received.

[verticallychallenged]

04:14 PM on 08/14/2009

After reading the article about Afghani women facing starvation for refusing to have sex with their husbands, I am even more concerned about Karzai.

[Durango]

05:39 PM on 08/14/2009

One problem is that the people we support are not necessarily that much different from what we call the Taliban.

Most of the Mujaheddin that we supported against the Soviets were Fundamentalists. Including Massoud.

I am afraid we have been on the wrong side of this from the beginning. That the people who would reform and modernize Afghanistan were allies of the Soviets.

That for short term political gain, Ronald Reagan, and everyone else since, Republican or Democrat, European or American have condemned Afghanistan to endless war and conflict.

[oregonrain]

02:16 PM on 08/14/2009

Karzai will win , because we are backing him , and , he is playing the U.S. for fools. Im going to drop this link , because , I think it helps explain wny we are really in Afghanistan . http://lukery.blogspot.com/

[loki]

12:57 AM on 08/16/2009

thats easy. We are in Afghanistan for 2 main reason. Oil from the Caspian sea has to get to the south for the cheapest transportation cost. Also oil in Azerbaijan cant get to the open market easily, Iran would be the idea way to move it out to the open market. ( I know a geologist in Azerbaijan working for the US oil companies. She said they have it, they just don't have a good way to move it out and the companies she works for wants Iran big time) We'd like Iran for the oil and the land to put the pipeline in a more direct route. Iraq, Afghanistan with next door neighbor Pakistan ( also our puppet) are on opposing sides of Iran. We already have a base and large presence in Turkmenistan and Turkey. Were in the Persian gulf like whales on krill, and we have plenty of friends in the area with air bases that we control, like Saudi the EAU and Qatar. American Oil companies want to control the oil, and other capitalist and seekers of world domination are under the impression that we must control the oil , so we can control the rest of the world.