Nate Silver: There's Ample Reason For Dems To Be 'Deeply' Worried About 2010

FiveThirtyEight.com:

As I've been telling people all week here in Pittsburgh, there's ample reason for Democrats to be worried -- perhaps deeply so -- about 2010. Without major intervening events like 9/11, the party that wins the White House almost always loses seats at the midterm elections -- since World War II, an average of 17 seats in the House after the White House changes parties. Democrats have substantially more seats to defend than Republicans, particularly in the House. They appear to face a significant enthusiasm gap after having dominated virtually all close elections in 2006 and 2008. And the economy and health care are contingencies that could work either way, but which probably present more downside risk to Democrats than upside over the next 12-18 months, particularly if some version of health care reform fails to pass. While the Democrats are not extraordinary likely to lose the House, such an outcome is certainly well within the realm of possibility (I'd put the chance at somewhere between 1-in-4 and 1-in-3). The Senate picture is a bit brighter for them, but they are probably more likely now to lose seats in the chamber than to add to their majority, in spite of the spate of Republican retirements in Ohio, Missouri and other states. In a wave-type election, a net loss of as many as 4-6 seats is conceivable.

Read the whole story: FiveThirtyEight.com

Comments

[RTIII]

This time Nate's wrong.

The reasons the Dems should be worried are none of those things. They should be worried because they're caving to the Rs and DINOs. About half of the "Dems" aren't. We need to get them out, but IN THE PRIMARIES, people!
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[RTIII]

We progressives need to work HARD to get DINOs out of the various races during the Democratic primaries.
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[ldmason45]

The dems should worry. Most people voted for them because they promised change. All they've done is continue the lying, spending and criminal activity that the repubs have done in the last 8 yrs. As a matter of fact the dems have one-upped the repubs. The first insult to the American taxpayers was the porkulus campaign pay back bill and then we had the economy crashing cap-n-tax. These were passed in a deceitful, underhanded and sneeky manner. bo and dems knew the taxpayer's would have never allowed these bills if they'd known what was in them. They lost the faith and trust of a lot of taxpayers. The dems have no one to blame but themselves.

[hhayden]

No need to sugar coat it, but right on.

New polls have democrats down in every state.

[Coinyer101]

I'm only voting for liberal-pr­ogressives and libertarians in 2010. I refuse to support bluedog dems from Arkansaws anymore. Same in 2012, I will only vote for liberals or libertarians. NO MORE REPUBS AND NO MORE CENTRISTS!!!!

[Petey131]

Sure, elect the rethugs they have so many novel ideas....

[hhayden]

Now you're catching on.

[ldmason45]

The dems need to be very worried. Most Americans were already tired of the spending, lying and criminal activity from the repubs. They thought they were voting for "change". Instead the dems took control of the House and Senate and "one-upped" the repubs on the spending, lying and criminal activity. The first insult was the porkulus bill, which amounted to campaign pay back then we have the sham cap-n-tax which will kill American jobs and devastate an economy already in turmoil. The way these bills were passed was deceitful, under-handed and sneeky.bo and dems knew that those bills would have never passed if the taxpayer's had known what was in them. That's why the dems are having trouble with health care. They have lost the faith and trust of the taxpayer's to do anything right. They can't blame anyone but themselves for that.

[lokipuck]

Play it again, Sam.

[ldmason45]

The dems do need to be worried about the 2010 & 2012 elections. I was a dem all my life up until after the 2008 elections. Then I became a registered Independent. I was already sick of the spending, lying and criminal actions of the repubs. Now we have the dems who have picked up where they left off. The dems will continue to lose support of the Independents as long as they continue to make excuses for the low life's in their party. A lot of libs still try to defend the undefendable. They're refusal to police their own will catch up with them. Just ask the repubs. Wrong is wrong. Dems need to quit blamming everyone else for their own failures and step up to the plate. Most of all, quit the whinning ! It's getting old.

[jennylynn]

The republicans are back!

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/52602

[hhayden]

That was a quick couple of generations.

[Jaybot]

Of course they should be worried. The Congressional Democrats have only made gains because of how bad the Republicans are... oops, make that 'were' - how bad the Republicans were. Now that Dems are in control, they have to do something to earn the votes they essentially got for free and they are failing - failing with a capitol F.

[hhayden]

As soon as democrats get in we quickly remember why they were voted out previously.

[thatenglishteacher]

It will be nice to have some balance back in Washington. Super-majorities are just scary.

What would be perfect would be if a bunch of Independents get in and swing things according to reason rather than ideology.

[lbrty 2112]

News Flash: Conservatives Now Outnumber Liberals in All 50 States, Says Gallup Poll

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/52602

[Dr Manhattan]

News Flash: Morons read stories on www.cnsnews.com.

[RedKnuckles]

A BS poll from a BS website.

[lbrty 2112]

On Nov 1, 2008 they showed Obama winning 52% to 45%. The Final result was 52.9 to 45.7.. Yeah Gallup is terrible

[Teresa201]

So where does that leave the Dems and Reps. ???

Not the same thing.

[lbrty 2112]

Teresa, Dems and Repubs are just that.. party people. It's independents who decide elections. If the majority of the people identify themselves as conservative then the independents are presently leaning to the right.

[MyGuyO]

I'm sure a journalist/writer can forsee the future. C'mon.

[MyGuyO]

Rhetoric, rhetoric, rhetoric. Politics as usual.

[nurse92]

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/08/16/ap-canada-considering-healthcare-overhaul-private-insurance
Canadian healthcare system imploding.­..where is the liberal coverage on this story.
You people want to go to a Government run single payer system, when other countries are taking of getting away from it.

[Grunty1]

Because the problems in that article that all the tr0lls are linking to are MINOR compared to the problems our system already has.

[Teresa201]

Really....­.....?

Where is that single payer system in the healthcare reform we are discussing?

No, can't find it....

And Canadians are actually happy with their care.
They need a few more doctors in a couple locations.­...
Tell the truth here.

[Expatslacker]

Did you read the article? They are looking at going to private insurers, so is Britian.

[sparky73]

even if we are sucking wind....th­ere is no way the GOP is going to win seats back. They have NOBODY!

[takingUSback]

now you are getting it both parties are in trouble

[JessWonderin]

never underestimate the power of unlimited corporate propaganda and stupid people . . .. look at the crowds Pain drew and the Faux audiences . . . . we need to keep the pressure on media to TELL the TRUTH . . . and work toward breaking up media monopolies and consolidation.

[stick458]

Tell the truth? You don't want the media to tell the truth, If yo did, you would listen to Limbaugh and you would watch Fox News. Since it is doubtful you do either, you are not serious.

[Teresa201]

Most that are left are under State or Federal investigat­ion.......­..

Hmmmm.....­.I wonder if their religion can get them out of that?

Funny that the right backs cheating, theft and fraud.....­!

Picked up the Constitution and dropped the Bible.

[BPCentrisAmerican]

Marriage issues is a big problem, isn't it.