Nouriel Roubini: A Phantom Economic Recovery?

Business Standard:

Data from the US -- rising unemployment, falling household consumption, still declining industrial production, and a weak housing market -- suggest that America's recession is not over yet. A similar analysis of many other advanced economies suggests that, as in the US, the bottom is quite close but it has not yet been reached. Most emerging economies may be returning to growth, but they are performing well below their potential.

Read the whole story: Business Standard

Comments

[Skeetshooter]

01:38 PM on 08/23/2009

Roubini is one of the few willing to tell it like it is. The world economic model is now decidedly against unregulated capitalism. Even if the U.S. wants to remain a drunken trigger happy galoot in a sober more sustainable market, our foreign creditors will soon be calling the shots and calling in our bar tab. We can hit bottom, or we can hit rehab. Either way, it's about time.

[Sifu Dai]

12:31 AM on 08/23/2009

Roubini here gives the *best case* scenario. Note that it is English, with some Spanish, speaking countries that went overboard with consumption, and only the printing of trillions more by their central banks will keep the populace in a quasi-believing stasis of 'abundance' ... meanwhile producing countries are quickly moving to counter Anglo culture and the value of their currencies. What this means is that English societies need to *rent*, not buy; grow gardens, not eat junk; walk and bike, not drive tanks. Frugality is the only viable societal choice, from which will emerge co-operatives, guilds, and new forms of monetary exchange.

[lloydblank]

08:25 PM on 08/22/2009

Obama already failed to reform the banks & wall street; now he's failing with heath care, too. So much for change you can believe in.

good articles: http://iamned.blogspot.com ...

[1will]

03:31 PM on 08/22/2009

Obama has no clue as to how to fix the economy and in 2012 we will have "Change."

[Fabini]

08:59 AM on 08/22/2009

My gut tells me Roubini is correct. In particular his statement, ". . . the recovery will be anaemic rather than robust . . ." means on an individual level, decent paying jobs will be very hard to find. For skilled and educated workers over 55 years old, they may be impossible. Frankly, the next 5 years look bleak.

[Energizer2009]

07:38 PM on 08/20/2009

On January 17, 2008, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Mr. Bernanke, testified that "A recession is probably not on the horizon, but quick passage of an economic-stimulus package plus aggressive action by the Federal Reserve are the appropriate prescription for the ailing economy.."

See:http://twisri.blogspot.com/2009/07/bernankes-history.html

Why the market failed - http://twisri.blogspot.com/2009/03/why-market-failed.html

Adam Smith on the Current Financial Crisis - http://twisri.blogspot.com/2009/04/adam-smith-on-current-financial-crisis.html

What happened. What now. - http://twisri.blogspot.com/2009/04/commercial-and-investment-banks-used.html

To REALLY see what went wrong, take a look at page 6: http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s71903/wmccir122203.pdf See page 2: http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s71005/wcunningham5867.pdf

Also see: http://www.ethicalmarkets.com//wp-content/uploads/2008/12/financialbailoutcomment1.pdf

[joebhed]

08:44 AM on 08/20/2009

Roubini's many points as to why we WILL have the so-called "double-dip" recession are all spot-on.

But his analysis of the most important economic factor out there is weak, missing completely the most severe problem we have, that of the coming monetary system conflagration. This has little to do with Roubini's points about government deficits, and everything to do with the eventual correction that everyone says is necessary with our unofficial 'quantitative easing' policy with the money supply.

In essence, the FED(not the government) has created $USD Trillions in their new lending "facilities" at zero percent interest..
This WAS necessary to make up for the shortfall in consumer and business "borrowing". This is totally essential with the DEBT-money system of fractional-reserve banking.

Unfortunately for the average American, all QE does is create huge amounts of new DEBTS, requiring massive amounts of increased "$USD debt-service payments" in the future.

So we got $USD Trillions holding the economy from falling off the cliff, and we have no employment, falling wages, increasing foreclosures, etc. etc.. Some people call that a rebound.

Bernanke says he has an "exit strategy" from the QE policy(?) that consists of raising interest rates.
Yeah, that'll work.

Here's a clue Nouriel, share it with Taleb.
The CAUSE of all this problem is the pro-cyclical, unscientific and failed design DEBT-money system of the Federal Reserve.
The solution is a new, equity-based money system.
The Money System Common.

[PhilipTaylor]

09:18 PM on 08/19/2009

We have an Administration who refuses to ENFORCE THE LAWS OF THE LAND against WH1TE C0LLAR CR1M1NALS just like when BUSH WAS IN OFFICE!

MASSIVE Evidence Exists their Scheme was Premeditated=HIGH CR!MES!

This was not WELL EDUCATED MEN (mostly) making mistakes except one - Thinking they would get away with it! To assume that Masters and PhD level managers simply made some mistakes is naive/irrational. TWO SIMPLE CHARGES:

1. PREMEDITATED MANUFACTURED INSIDER TRADING
a. Make a lot of SureFailProduct knowing it will fail
b. Buy Massive A1G CreditDefault Swaps which is Betting the SURE FAIL Products will fail!
Make it to fail and then bet it will fail: "Manufactu red-Inside r-Trading" 100% sure BET!

2. MISREPRESENTATION OF HUGH RISK "FAKE RATED" PRODUCTS AS SafeLowRisk "AAA" AND SOLD TO VICTIMS ALL OVER THE WORLD!

[zukervati]

11:31 AM on 08/22/2009

Money! Unless politics (elections really) is decoupled from the money (special interest groups and the likes of G$), these shrewd moneychangers will remain immune from the type prosecutions you're talking about. Heck, unless these dynamics change, even the second coming of Christ couldn't help!

[vippy]

07:23 PM on 08/19/2009

I read bad news every day, companies are laying off, trains don't move much merchandise across the nation and the freight companies are way down. So where is the recovery? Once again, first you have to pay the people so they can spend, so we have an economy! That is not happening. The rich, who
increased drastically in 2007 are not holding up this economy as we can see. All this recovery talk
is only to keep the gas prices high, and the lies about depleting the oil inventory! Sick of it already.

[zukervati]

11:35 AM on 08/22/2009

What happened to the "trickle down" economy of the Rethuglicans? As predicted, they got to horde their money while paying no taxes on it and the only thing that trickled down was the pi$$ on the middle-class, which the rich are leaking laughing their a$$es off on the way to the bank!

[swift goat pet for truth]

04:29 PM on 08/19/2009

Don't expect a big recovery until the middle class gets an increase in disposable income.

[donaldinks]

04:12 PM on 08/19/2009

I, for one, will give credit to Roubini for his foresight on what has befallen the Nation.
He was absolutely correct in his predictions on what we are now suffering through.
The only thing I might add to the discussion, is that in its present course, this Nation will become totally insolvent.
You can not export the entire manufacturing capacity (except of course...the military industrial complex) and hope to move forward without a gigantic effort and investment towards putting Americans back to work.
When I say "work", I speak not of miscreants and leeches that cheat and rob what is left of what we DO produce as a Nation, rather well paying jobs for the masses.
If we don't get the American people back to work soon...we will be come, as a Nation...insolvent.

[Fabini]

09:05 AM on 08/22/2009

"You can not export the entire manufacturing capacity (except of course...the military industrial complex)"

I was present at a trade show in Las Vegas where Chinese military clothing manufacturing (the Chinese government) was represented and doing a fine business selling boots to the USA military. We are exporting ALL manufacturing it seems.

[UnknownSolider]

03:55 PM on 08/19/2009

Roubini is a broken record, everything is always gloomy with this guy

[swift goat pet for truth]

04:26 PM on 08/19/2009

What is gloomier is that he has been right.

[salkoc]

12:41 AM on 08/20/2009

yes hes been right this time .......he has predicted bad economic atmospheres for over 15 yrs. so if you keep saying its going to rain in the dessert until one day it does you look smarter then you are .

to mr roubinis credit ...his evaluation of the situations dire circumstances were spot on .....however , his time frame is way off . we dipped faster then he expected and are coming out sooner . remember he also stated that all the banks would be nationalized.

i think the programs put in place with the stimulus bill ...tarp...talf....ppip...programs have amassed a 3 trillion dollar wall of money awaiting the storms that may or might not hit. sorry boys ....but i think the pros know this as well ....as reflected in this rally not just here but across the world.

if the unemployment rate drops and there is a positive flow of jobs ....hold on to your seats ...

[FreedomCorpse]

05:55 PM on 08/19/2009

The truth is always gloomier than the 'real' economic news which is butterflies and puppies playing with little 'green shoots' sprouting everywhere. Mainstream economic talking heads are the new woodstock hippies eating acid and seeing things no one else can see.

[RomeoMD25]

03:27 PM on 08/19/2009

Just ask one question... Can you name one thing the government has taken over and fixed over the last 30 years? Just name one thing the government does that really benefits the people... They can not answer it.

[UnknownSolider]

03:55 PM on 08/19/2009

Straw Man argument. Can you name anything the government has taken over period in the last 30 years.

In the 1930s the government took over retirement benefits for seniors, we call it Social Security today.

In the 1960s the government took over medical benefits for seniors

[Brian Rowe]

04:01 PM on 08/19/2009

Where'd you figure that one out dips**t?!?!!?

[BBCup]

04:10 PM on 08/19/2009

Our Government makes is possible for you to make comments such as this.

[MajorKong]

03:04 PM on 08/19/2009

Sigh.

I can always count on Nouriel Roubini to brighten my day.

[OpposingViewpoint]

03:30 PM on 08/19/2009

That seems to be a trait many economists have, but you have to admit, unlike most economists Roubini does possess a great deal of credibility.

[DismayedRepub]

03:57 PM on 08/19/2009

Well he could be wrong. He could be overly optimistic. I fear this could easily turn into an L-shaped depression. When ever I read stuff like this I run down to the local coin store and buy a roll of silver coins or two. It helps me feel better.

[sonofsamphm1c]

02:15 PM on 08/19/2009

I don't mind Roubini. He's okay, but could the HuffPo please go out and find other economic voices than Krugman, Roubini, and Stiglitz.

[siasina]

03:23 PM on 08/19/2009

I wish they would have Peter Schiff on here lol. They never post anything from Peter Schiff

[BurtonOerney]

04:57 PM on 08/19/2009

People who listen to Peter Schiff's economic advice lose money. You think he should have a broader audience?

Here is Peter Schiff predicting hyper-inflation in March 2008!
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1205508600.php

Here's a good analysis of why Peter Schiff's clients lost so much money in early-mid 2008:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html

[swift goat pet for truth]

04:28 PM on 08/19/2009

If you are refering to GOPer economists...

HuffPo could.
But they are always wrong.