Cook Political Report: Dems Face Peril In 2010 Elections

On Thursday, Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report came out with a new post predicting trouble for Democrats in the 2010 elections. Based on the latest polls, Cook says, "the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and the Congressional Democrats."

Today, The Cook Political Report's Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low.

Cook goes on to tie the current troubles to the economy:

That all of this is happening against a backdrop of an economy that appears to be rebounding and a resurgent stock market underscores how much the President's and his party's legislative agenda have contributed to these poor poll numbers.

We believe it would be a mistake to underestimate the impact that this mood will have on Members of Congress of both parties when they return to Washington in September, if it persists through the end of the Congressional recess.

Read more of the Cook Political Report here (subscription only).

Comments

[nivek]

When the 2010 election cycle rolls around I would hope the Democratic party will have pulled it's collective stuff together and have a cohesive platform to run on. Not Hope and Change, but real legislation that serves the greater good of humanity. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but Democrats have an opportunity to accomplish something with health care and reform of insurance practices that the Republicans will never do. And it should be huge. All signs in the MSM point to these reforms being defeated, that makes me hopeful that we will, in the end see them successfully enacted. American politicians are self- preservationist if nothing else. I do not believe at the end of the day they will stand before their constituency and argue that they weren't able to take up the mantle of FDR and LBJ. Will they run on a message of defeat and division? Democrats must enact legislation to better the lives of all Americans. What we elected them to do.

[Chili4me]

Our current leadership is corrupt.

Vote out all incumbents.

[BrickSykes]

Oh, that's really Smart! Let's send a whole new crop of hotheads to DC without even ONE of them knowing where the Crappers ARE! You're Brilliant!

Brick

[ardethbay]

Some of the blue dog democrats may be in trouble if they have other democrats running against them.They might as well be repubs. And hopefully Leiberman is up for re-election also and gets replaced buy a democrat.

[MNTom]

Hes not up until 2012.

[DontFeedTheBeast]

That statement shows your naivete. Blue dog democrats only got in at all because the areas they run in are CONSERVATIVE.

[BryanTheRegOps]

Bill Maher is right this is a country of stoopld. It took Dubuya 8 years to destroy the economy in every possible ways and now people are expecting Obama to fix everything in 8 months. Can anyone explain to me why this expectation?

[LORISNJ]

He may be right - if the following happens:

The healthcare reform legislation doesn't have a public option or if hell freezes over.

Otherwise, by next year this country will know we are back on the right track and the Republicans can plan on having another retreat to figure out what they are going to do to win in 2012.

The only thing that will save Republican house seats is if they prevent healthcare reform - they know it and they will do anything to prevent the public option and reform from happening. No matter what concessions we give them in that "panel of six" better know as the Death Panel, the Republicans will not be voting for it, so why bother? Republicans are for their party above this country and it will be their undoing.

[unite4change]

If anyone votes the GOP back in office, they deserve what they get, nothing.

[Harrier]

When has he not predicted a Repub romp?

[jerichoj8]

let states opt out of public option

[billobasher]

The Republican's will gain seats but they will not regain a majority.

[ekoorb]

It's unusual to win three consecutive elections. Unemployment will be critical.

[theclosetconservative2]

Cook may be conservative in his predictions. Pat Caddell described it as a coming tsunami in 2010. People voted in Democrats in 2006 and put Barack Obama in the White House because the Republicans (led by George W. Bush) weren't sticking to their principles. But now the buyers' remorse is kicking in, because President Obama's trying to move us as far left as he can in the shortest possible time. It's backfiring, and on the current path, the GOP could take back the House. http://theclosetconservative.com

[workerpower]

This is the stupidest thing I have ever heard! Obama is "trying to move us as far left as he can in the shortest possible time?" Nothing has even changed since Obama has been in office. The conservative wing of the Democratic Party calls all of the shots, and Obama's plummeting approval rating has been shown to be due mostly to his base becoming disillusioned. We are never getting out of Iraq, let alone afghanistan, EFCA has been gutted, and still might not pass. Same for health care. How is that left?

[NajkaLion]

I'm a real political news junkie - but these pundits and pollsters are giving me whiplash. About a month ago, all we heard was that the GOP was relegated to a regional party -- it was going the way of the Whigs. Now, suddenly, they're poised for major wins. Really! Can't we stop the hour-by-hour polling. Can't we talk about policies and issues instead of polls? Please!

[nailinpalinnow]

Personally I'm fine with this type of meme being put out - one thing we cannot afford is a complacent Democratic majority now, in 2010 or ever again!!!

[mcmutter]

This country has too many pundits...and every last one of them is glorified by the media. Ask Charlie Cook if the GOP has any viable, sensible candidates that might appeal to mainstream middle Americans. See if he can name a few of them.

[marquetta]

Mr. Cook might be more credible had I not been in the audience two years ago when he solemnly declared that the final 2008 election would be between Mitt Romney and Hilary Clinton. Pundits are guessing just like the rest of us -- and Republicans are no more likely to be forever 'down for the count' than Democrats will have it easy in 2010.