Shiite groups form new alliance excluding Iraqi PM

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Former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, center, is flanked by members of the newly formed Iraqi National Alliance at a news conference in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, Aug. 24, 2009. Major Shiite groups have formed a new alliance that will exclude the Iraqi prime minister, lawmakers said Monday, a move likely to stoke fears of increasing Iranian influence and shake up the political landscape ahead of January parliamentary elections. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

BAGHDAD — The Iranian-backed Shiite parties that helped propel Iraq's prime minister into power three years ago dumped him Monday as their candidate for re-election, forming a new alliance to contest the January vote.

The move dealt a blow to Nouri al-Maliki's chances to keep his job next year and set the stage for a showdown between competing factions in the Shiite coalition that had dominated Iraq's government since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Al-Maliki now faces pressure to make a deal with minority Sunni parties to strengthen his position. Because his Dawa party is relatively small, he has never been able to rely on a loyal political base. Instead, he has developed a reputation as a strong leader by crushing militias loyal to anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in Baghdad and in the southern city of Basra.

The Shiite prime minister's efforts to win public confidence by portraying himself as a champion of security have taken a battering in recent weeks. A wave of horrific bombings has called into question the government's ability to protect the Iraqi people two months after most U.S. forces pulled out of urban areas.

In the latest violence, bombs attached to two buses en route from Baghdad exploded less than an hour apart near the mainly Shiite city of Kut on Monday, killing at least 11 people and wounding 20, police and hospital officials said. Local police chief Brig. Gen. Raed Shakir Jawdat said the explosives were detonated with timers.

Monday's political announcement – made with fanfare at a news conference – represents a major realignment.

The new bloc, called the Iraqi National Alliance, will include the largest Shiite party, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, or SIIC, and al-Sadr's bloc, which both have close ties to Tehran.

Although some small Sunni and secular parties are joining the alliance, many Sunnis consider the Supreme Council as little more than an instrument of Shiite Iran.

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If the alliance does well in the Jan. 16 vote, Tehran could gain deeper influence in Iraq as U.S. forces pull back, with a full American withdrawal planned by the end of 2011.

Al-Maliki's Dawa Party also has close ties to Iran, but the prime minister has tried in recent years to persuade Tehran to stop interfering in Iraq. Iran is accused of supporting Shiite militias, despite its denials of the allegations.

Al-Maliki, who took office in May 2006 with the blessing of the Supreme Council and the Sadrists, has become increasingly assertive as his popularity has grown with the sharp decline in violence. He has taken on the Americans, the Iranians, the Sunnis and fellow Shiites alike.

His loyalists ousted the Supreme Council from control of the oil-rich southern Shiite heartland in provincial elections earlier this year, raising concern among other Shiite politicians that internal divisions could cost them seats to Sunnis in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

But the unrelenting explosions – including two suicide truck bombings against the foreign and finance ministries that killed scores last week – have weakened his position at a crucial time.

He stayed out of the new alliance because leaders refused to guarantee him the prime minister's spot, officials said. Rumored possibilities for the job include new alliance members ex-Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, current Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi and even Former Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Chalabi, a one-time Pentagon favorite.

The realignment does not immediately threaten al-Maliki's position as prime minister, but points to stormy politics in the election campaign and beyond, as U.S. troops begin scaling back their presence.

Supreme Council lawmaker Reda Jawad Taqi said a last-ditch meeting was held Sunday to try to bring al-Maliki into the fold but it failed to overcome the differences.

One of al-Maliki's advisers, Hassan al-Sineid, said in a televised response that the prime minister and the leaders of the new alliance differed over "the mechanism of participation in the alliance and the need to open this alliance to include a broad range of political powers."

The prime minister instead is working to form an alternate coalition. He is reaching out to a prominent Sunni sheik in Anbar province, whose followers include fighters who joined forces with the Americans against al-Qaida in Iraq.

Sheik Ahmed Abu Risha said his representatives met with al-Maliki's advisers on Sunday to discuss forming "a national and nonsectarian alliance."

He praised al-Maliki for cracking down on Shiite militias and supporting the anti-al-Qaida movement that has spread nationwide and is considered a key factor in a sharp decline in overall violence over the past two years.

Despite Monday's announcement, the new Shiite alliance was careful to leave the door open for the Dawa Party to join later.

Abdul-Mahdi, a top SIIC member, was among those reaching out to Dawa, saying it was important to present a strong united front that can address the overwhelming challenges facing the country.

The coalition will replace the United Iraqi Alliance, which won control of parliament in the last parliamentary elections in December 2005 but began to unravel later with the withdrawal of two major factions and the bitter rivalry between al-Maliki and the Supreme Council.

The list includes several Sunnis, comprising a smaller Awakening Council faction from the western Anbar province that won several seats in provincial elections earlier this year.

Absent from the press conference was the Supreme Council's leader Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who suffers from lung cancer and was hospitalized this weekend in Iran after officials said his health deteriorated. Al-Sadr also is believed to be in Iran.

___

Associated Press Writers Sameer N. Yacoub and Hamid Ahmed contributed to this report.

BAGHDAD — The Iranian-backed Shiite parties that helped propel Iraq's prime minister into power three years ago dumped him Monday as their candidate for re-election, forming a new alliance to co...
BAGHDAD — The Iranian-backed Shiite parties that helped propel Iraq's prime minister into power three years ago dumped him Monday as their candidate for re-election, forming a new alliance to co...
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- dogman44 I'm a Fan of dogman44 46 fans permalink

Iran is not going to be happy about an autonomous Kurdish state. Neither will Turkey. And Iran,
(according to the news), is powerful in the Shiite areas. We have to leave. We are not solving
any problems there. We are just exacerbating the problems. Whether we leave tomorrow or
20 years from now, there will be a power struggle over who gets what. And it may amount to
war and attempted genocide among tribal and religious groups. I expect it to get worse as we
withdraw. But if we do it tomorrow or 20 years down the road, the result will be the same.......
more war. We really opened a can of worms.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:50 AM on 08/25/2009
- PWM I'm a Fan of PWM 241 fans permalink
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I agree. Turkey, our NATO ally, has been persecuting the Kurds for centuries.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:30 AM on 08/25/2009

The reason Maliki wasn't included in this new alliance is because he couldn't get a promise that he would be their only candidate for Prime Minister. This has been a sticking point for quite some time now. Maliki will now have an uphill battle holding on this position as the new alliance and Maliki's State of Law list did just about the same in the 2009 provincial elections. Many in the new alliance are also opposed to Maliki retaining the prime ministership, and they are joined by the Kurds and the Sunni Islamic Party. Maliki will have an uphill battle in the 2010 vote and the negotiations afterward. musingsoni­raq.blogsp­ot.com

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:56 AM on 08/25/2009
- jamiso I'm a Fan of jamiso 7 fans permalink

Hay, as long as they arent blowing themselves up...Hooray for whoever.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:08 PM on 08/24/2009
- Durango I'm a Fan of Durango 134 fans permalink

This might be good news.

If the government is a coalition of Shia and Sunni political interests that could go a long ways to defusing the fears of the Sunni population. Which remains the gravest threat to Iraq.

No matter what happens Iran will have considerable influence in Iraq. I just read today that Iran has shut off pilgramage to shrines in Iraq throwing those cities into a recession/­depression­. Irans influence comes from it's proximity. And is not limited to political influence.

Of course the show of Kurdish Indepenence is yet to drop.

But it occurs to me that the best government possible in that strife torn country would be a coalition of Shia, Sunni and Kurds.

Lets hope this is a sign of progress.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:08 PM on 08/24/2009

Iraqis wants to kill its puppet goverment.
They want to kill the corrupt oil ministry first.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:54 PM on 08/24/2009

You guys have no idea how wrong you are. The fact that Maliki's nationalist Law and Order party is strong enough to run on its own, without the NIA, is proof that Iran has failed to win control over Iraq. This rump party is going to get crushed by Maliki in the January elections. This is in fact the strongest evidence so far that we are winning the battle for multi-party democracy in Iraq, and that they are pulling away from Iran.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:00 AM on 08/24/2009
- Dredd I'm a Fan of Dredd 14 fans permalink
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Iranian Shia embedded themselves into the Iraqi government years ago when Bremer was doin' a heckuva job there.

http://blogdredd.blogspot.com/2009/07/iraqs-april-30-4th-of-july-irans-win.html

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:56 AM on 08/24/2009

This is the multi-nationals plan to keep us in Iraq for te next ten years. Ahmad Chalabi is running this whole end around-backed by big oil and big defense. Don't let them fool you, they know what they are doing. By setting up this new " alliance" they have people fooled thinking the Iranians are taking over Iraq, when in reality the multi-nationals are just sustaining the bleeding off of the American treasury to support the illusion of mistrust. In other words they know we can never leave iraq as long as they have us thinking the Iranians control the country. Just like Chaney said we will be in iraq for a hundred years. When will we ever learn that big money runs the show, and we just sit around and watch while they enslave our children.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:54 AM on 08/24/2009

What a bizarre negative spin, when in reality this means just the opposite. The Iranian-backed parties lost big time in the provincial elections. Which mean that Maliki is strong enough to break away from the Iranian-backed parties and run on his own as a nationalist. The NIA is a vastly weakened rump party. You guys are truly delusional.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:53 AM on 08/24/2009
- Durango I'm a Fan of Durango 134 fans permalink

Having a difference of opinion on such a complicated subject is certainly not delusion.

I hope you are correct in your assessment.

Note the report was written by Arabs. Can't tell if they are Iraqi or not. And certainly can't tell their religious/political affiliations.

But at least it appears the article was written by people who at least speak the language.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:16 PM on 08/24/2009
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And of course, I have been posting this since Saddam was toppled.

In the 80s the U.S. supported Saddam and Iraq in their war with Iran and the Ayatolah Khomenieh. Almost 20 yrs. later, we remove Saddam from power and hold free elections in Iraq, the Shiites win a majority in the elections and control of Iraq. The Shiites have close ties to the new Ayatolah, who was a follower of the Ayatolah Khomenieh. So basicly , we did for the Iranians, what they couldn’t do for themselves in the 80s.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:48 AM on 08/24/2009
- Durango I'm a Fan of Durango 134 fans permalink

Ithink your analysis is too simple.

We did support Saddam. But we armed Iran as well. i think it would be more accurate to say we supported both sides against the middle in the Iran/Iraq war. Hoping it would weaken both sides. But certainly there was the idea of payback against Iran.

certainly iran has and will continue to have considerable influence in Iraq. Due to their proximity there is no possibility for it to be otherwise. As anyone, except the ignorant NeoCons could have predicted.

But iranian influence (and the opposite) is not necessarily a bad thing.

As far as loyalty to the Supreme Ayatollah. My understanding is that would be Sistani. Who has been a moderate on political questions.

And has worked with the west. At least indirectly.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:22 PM on 08/24/2009
- talkpeople I'm a Fan of talkpeople 3 fans permalink
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We need to pull our troops out. By staying there we are digging a deeper hole and making more enemies. save our economy by shifting the war funds back to the american people. this area of the world has alway and will always be a war area. the only way it will change if their own people rise up, not by us trying to step in. america can't afford this losing battle. we will lose worse if we don't pack it up asap.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:47 AM on 08/24/2009
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And this is surprising how?

This was predicted from the start of the war in Iraq.


From sometime around 2005

CHRIS MATTHEWS: Two years ago, King Abdullah of Jordan warned me of what was coming in the mideast. His prediction was dead on. He spoke of his fears and what the United States was doing in iraq, toppling one government, electing another, was creating what he called a shi'ia crescent, from Tehran through Baghdad to Beirut that threatened to dominate the Arab world, challenging modern Sunni governments in Egypt and Saudi Arabia and others with an axis of Shia power based in Iran.

When I look at the map today, that Shia crescent the King foretold has come to light. That's what happened. We converted Iraq from a country which has fought revolutionary Iran for eight years to a bloody stand still to a Shia dominated ally of Iran and created a boulevard of common religion and common regional politics.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:47 AM on 08/24/2009
- Durango I'm a Fan of Durango 134 fans permalink

I would rely on Iraqi nationalism overcoming any idea of a Shia Cresent overcoming the Arab world.

Remember Iran and Iraq fought one of the more brutal wars of the late 20th century.

Neither side has forgotten that conflict. And the sacrifices it entailed.

Let us hope that such remembrances can be overcome. And that any possibility of war between Iran and Iraq has now ended.

That would be real progress.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:11 PM on 08/24/2009

Iran was always going to be the beneficiary of Bush's adventurism.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:29 AM on 08/24/2009
- jsgaetano I'm a Fan of jsgaetano 194 fans permalink
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Yeah. The Goopers approached the chess board with a checkers mentality.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:18 AM on 08/24/2009

2543.Antoine:
TCPITS-
I think you are partially correct. Iraqui people have an opportunity to garner a free environment,
however they decide to govern it.
However, they are also the, potentially, first democratic country in their region.
I think they were a strong symbol of freedom that gave Iranians strength to revolt in the last Iranian election.
Here is one post of someone commenting on pics of the Iranian election protestors:

Their signs are in English because they want the world to understand what they are fighting for, and most of the world doesn't read Farsi, Arabic, or whatever it is they speak in Iran. They want our support, morally even if not materially. That's why you see a ton of cameras and cell phones recording the action in every video clip: they know that the state media will never tell their tale, so they've taken it upon themselves to ensure that the world knows what happened here. We're they're target audience at least as much as the mullahs are. There's nothing sinister or conspiratorial about that.

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html

Posted by Quentin June 25, 09 05:43 PM

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:24 PM on 08/24/2009
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