Afghan Runoff: Will It Make A Difference?

As Afghanistan hastily prepares for a runoff election on November 7, amidst an increase in Taliban attacks, questions persist over what impact the long-discussed runoff will have on Afghanistan and U.S. relations with the war-torn country. Further complicating matters, President Hamid Karzai's rival, Abdullah Abdullah, has hinted at boycotting the runoff if his demands are not met.

The Telegraph reports that Abdullah is "increasingly likely" to pull out of the runoff.

His ultimatum demanding the sacking of the country's chief election official and suspension of key ministers alleged to be complicit in fraud has been ignored so far by Hamid Karzai.

Negotiations between the two have reached deadlock, with both men refusing to make concessions.

HuffPost bloggers with an expertise in Afghanistan have shared their views on the runoff and how a possible boycott would affect U.S.-Afghan relations.

Finding anyone here who believe the November 7 voting will happen is difficult. Conventional wisdom among Afghans and internationals alike now seems to argue that:

1) The same IEC members, the same governors and the same government officials are in place, so why would Dr. Abdullah or anyone else think election improprieties would disappear?

2) Dr. Abdullah seems increasingly likely to pull out of the voting as a result.

3) The November 7 voting will then be called off.

Among UN workers here in Kabul there is a palpable sense of fear following Wednesday's attack. Many non-essential UN staff is exiting the country until the voting date passes. And internationals who heard the shooting Wednesday morning while cooking their breakfast or getting ready for work now look over their shoulder and at their front doors with a growing sense of vulnerability.

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And meanwhile, Afghans push on. Businesses open their doors and schools throughout the country welcome students each day. Maternal health efforts document progress across Afghanistan. Women entrepreneurs strengthen their business plans and agriculture programs help farmers produce higher quality products they can sell across their borders for higher prices.

Afghans watch as the foreigners pour out. And they express gratitude to those who stay. November 7 is coming, but no one is yet sure what it will bring. And everyone is braced for whatever comes.

- Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, a former ABC News journalist currently researching a book in Afghanistan

The likelihood of Abdullah Abdullah boycotting the elections is high. A likely scenario is that he will refuse to take part in the next round because it won't be a fair election. The IEC will then declare President Hamid Karzai the winner, despite the fact that it is unclear under Afghan law if they even have that authority. Abdullah will then reject the IEC's decision for this reason. There will be an extended period of stalemate, during which Abdullah may try to press for a deal. The United States might pressure Karzai under such a scenario since at that point it will be anxious to end the months of deadlock (things have been in limbo since August).

A deal for Abdullah would likely include key governorships for his supporters and some ministries, but probably not a position for himself. He instead would try to position himself as a viable opposition candidate for the future.

This is all highly speculative, of course. He could just be bluffing, using talk of a boycott to better his bargaining position (his team has been in talks with Karzai's).

- Anand Gopal, journalist who frequently writes about Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Governance is not the only thing at stake. I'm most concerned that civilians are already being seen as bargaining chips in the coming runoff. The increasing violence is rightfully causing many to fear for their lives. Last week, after the UN guest house was attacked, a Taliban spokesperson said, "We have said that we would attack anyone engaged in the process and today's attack is just a start." That puts a target on anyone going to the polls, any poll worker, any monitor. I worry that we're going to see the Taliban create even more chaos, which puts even civilians deciding not to get involved in the elections in danger.

- Sarah Holewinski, the Executive Director of CIVIC (Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict), an organization working with warring parties to help civilians they have harmed in combat.

The root causes of violence and instability in Afghanistan go far beyond the question of this last election or this runoff. For almost 100 years the political classes in Kabul have attempted to subordinate the landlords and Mullahs of the countryside. First these modernization efforts were called Constitutional Monarchy, then Republicanism, then Communism, now Democracy.

Each time it was the same: pave the roads, collect taxes, expand education, suppress banditry, limit the autonomy of the rural landlords and Mullahs. All good things. But each time it failed - even when supported by powerful outsiders.

Rural Afghanistan just wants to be left alone. The recently resigned dissident State Department official Matthew Hoh called their ideology "Valley-ism." Absolutely correct. We should oblige them and go away.

In Kabul, corruption is now endemic. The political class is rotten almost to the core. Afghanistan is a kleptocracy, were bribes are demanded for every service. We should not expect a different style of rule from Abdullah Abdullah, were he to win the run off. He shares the same pedigree as Hamid Karzai. He was a political adviser to Masaud, one of the drug-running, mujahedin terrorists -- backed by the CIA, Saudi and Pakistan - who threw out the last invaders, the Soviets.

America needs to prepare an orderly, negotiated de-escalation and departure from Afghanistan. American defeat in Afghanistan is inevitable. The process and aftermath can be ugly, or it can be extremely ugly. Obama's escalation is madness, exactly the wrong thing to do. This election runoff will not create a "credible partner" in Afghanistan. It is time to leave, and do so as responsibly as possible.

- Christian Parenti, American journalist and author who has reported from Afghanistan.

What do you think of the Afghan runoff? Share your thoughts in the comments section below. We will include the most insightful and thoughtful comments in this post. What is the likelihood that Abdullah Abdullah will boycott the runoff? What would the Obama administration do if that happens? How would and should a boycott affect Obama's Afghan war strategy? Will a runoff make a difference anyway?

Comments

[lightningbolt]

We must leave this country before it puts us in the graveyard of empires.

[mergina]

The Taliban brothers are in power now, the Taliban will remain in power.

[Prakosh]

Part I

All of which proves once again what we should have learned forever in Vietnam, it is much harder to get out of a war after we are in it than to stay out of it in the first place. I remember not too long ago when many on the left to my surprise and extreme consternation saw Afghanistan as the "good" war and Iraq as the "bad" war, instead of seeing them both for the waste that they were.

After 9-11 about 80-85 percent of the country supported the invasion of Afghanistan because the Taliban were protecting bin Laden (blah blah blah) while Bush was beating the war drum, that number had to include many on the left, including far too many in Congress, I think only one member of the House voted against the initial war resolution in Afghanistan and no one voted against it in the Senate.

[Prakosh]

Part II

I keep hoping that maybe next time when a group of th/ugs attack us, cooler heads will prevail and the first response won't be invasion and occupation of a people who had mostly nothing to do with the original attack, which, lest we forget, was actually carried out by nineteen people who are all de/ad and was planned by only three or four people, many of whom are still running free. Given the situation on the ground today, I think it is clear that our country, 80-85 percent of the people in it, Congress, and the Bush administration grossly over reacted to the attack on 9-II.

Unfortunately, if anything similar were to happen tomorrow, I fear we would do something similar all over again. As a nation we have learned absolutely nothing from this experience and that is the real tragedy.

[Prakosh]

Part II

I keep hoping that maybe next time when a group of thugs attack us, cooler heads will prevail and the first response won't be invasion and occupation of a people who had mostly nothing to do with the original attack, which, lest we forget, was actually carried out by nineteen people who are all dead and was planned by only three or four people, many of whom are still running free. Given the situation on the ground today, I think it is clear that our country, 80-85 percent of the people in it, Congress, and the Bush administration grossly over reacted to the attack on 9-11.

Unfortunately, if anything similar were to happen tomorrow, I fear we would do something similar all over again. As a nation we have learned absolutely nothing from this experience and that is the real tragedy.

[James Rowles]

COULD U.N. TAKE CONTROL OF AFGHAN ELECTIONS TO STOP SECOND ROUND FRAUD?

Summary
–Another Fraud and Then Five More Years of Karzai?
–The United States, NATO and the UN have several options, as
does Abdullah
–Advantages of the U.N. Taking Over the Elections
–Final Thoughts
–ANNEX–Elements of a Draft Security Council Resolution Authorizing
Immediate UN Control of the Electoral Process in Afghanistan

What can be done, at this late hour? see full discussion and additional comments at www.trenchantobserver.com

[Gerard Russell]

Comment on the Afghan run-off (based on a report in the Huffington Post);

Let's hope that Dr Abdullah doesn't pull out.

Yes, Karzai won a majority in the first round. But the Afghan Constitution demands that he should have over 50 per cent in order to become President, and that's for a reason: the Afghan President has a great deal of power, having all kinds of powers that even a US President doesn't have (like appointing State Governors without reference to anyone else).

Afghans have had a rough experience with this election, waiting for months to get a result, and Abdullah's withdrawal would be the worst possible outcome - meaning that a large part of the country will regard their government as illegitimate.

His complaints are not wholly unreasonable: the head of the Commission that oversees the elections was quoted saying that President Karzai would win. The electoral system in the view of many observers is skewed towards the incumbent. There's still a chance that something can be done to address the issues he raised, and enable him to take part.

[Pem3]

This will be a interesting time if the one people pulls out and the election goes on it will be seen as faked and not held as true. If it goes on people will say it was rigged and no one will hold it up, seems like bad times all around.

[Littlewords]

The Soviet Union spent 10 years in their war and occupation of Afghanistan before realizing they were no where close to achieving their desired goals. They exited in 1989 leaving the country in total ruin.

Approaching nine years of engagement, we face a similar circumstance and some daunting realities.

1) The Taliban has not been broken.
With little where else to go (Pakistan border about the only other haven), they remain and hide while under pressure only to re-assemble and assert when the pressure is lifted.

2) Infrastructure still not in place.
We've failed to re/build infrastructure. The resulting the vacuum is filled by the Taliban.

2) The US planted Gov't is corrupt and can't run a fair election.
The US now sees this dismal failure...a regime change will come, we only don't yet know the day and time, but Karzai will lose control.

3) Military enlistments and morale have plummeted, with our service image tarnished.
The harsh ground realities, occupation constraints, global politics, and perspective of entering never ending war/occupation for potential recruits has curtailed eagerness to join and serve.

4) The fiscal cost of war is high.
The US has a precariously economic situation struggling to fix a massive financial sector calamity which curtails spend for wars/occupation.

We have to decide....plan a timely exit, or accept the cost and commitment of *at least* another decade working to repair the Afghanistan debacle. An ugly circumstance confronting this new Administration and the country.

[Chipher]

This is just flat wrong:

1) The same IEC members, the same governors and the same government officials are in place. T

2) Dr. Abdullah seems increasingly likely to pull out of the voting as a result. F, his name will still be on

the ballot.

3) The November 7 voting will then be called off. F, the election will proceed, and as Hil|ary has

stated, 'This will not have any impact on making the runoff 'LEGITIMATE'

That's all they care about, pushing process to obtain a 'legitimate and certified' presidential executive

to sign the oil & gas leases already auctioned off in secret, 'on or before February 5, 2010'

It could be Bugs Bunny who won, as long as he can hold the pen in his hand.

http://afghanistanpetroleum.com NOT ONE WORD in the US:UK media or any US:UK leader!!

[Raster]

Biden's old proposal to divide Iraq into 3 states-Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites-seems ideally suited for present day Afghanistan. Abdullah Abdullah is not Pashtun so he would not be stable as a national leader. No on else is viable. The country will never be stable as geographically defined currently. Why not consider subdividing it: Persian-related Shiites in the West, Turkic-Mongol Sunnis in the North, and Pashtuns in the South and East?

[Chipher]

Balkanization only works when you're excluding one group from natural resources in another part of the country, not when you have to run pipeline and railroad corridors throughout the entire country. Then the fewer parties the better, as EU learned to their chagrin with Georgia, Russia and Ukraine.

[Nicholas Roy]

That solution would most likely just lead to more problems. It turned the Balkins into a mess, over a million people were killed When India and Pakistan were partitioned, and in Iraq group saw that it wouldn't end the violence and was rejected. A viable solution may be to work with the tribal dynamic and sideline Karzai until he is able end the coruption.

[AKaurora]

We went into Afghanistan on the most narrow of goals: punish the Taliban for harboring Bin Laden. Oh, and of course, capture Bin Laden. There was absolutely zero understanding on what the Afghanistan is, the history of its people, or how exceedingly different it is compared to western nations. It has been a naiviete that has haunted us in Africa and throughout Asia. Afghanistan has never been successfully controlled by military power. It doesn't even exist as a country in its own people's minds. Regional tribalism is a completely different stage of social evolution. The one person who seems to understand is Rory Stewart, and he should be listened to. He seems the people through his heart and mind as they are, not as we would like them to be.

[donethridge]

We cannot save people from themselves. Afganistan has an average income of $800 a year. The majority have no education. These people have gotten the crappy end of the stick forever. They cling to their religion and all they know is the drug trade and fighting. The EU and the USA are the lands of milk and honey. Why are we so arrogant we think we can save these people. Save our money and the lives of our troops and get the hell out. It is not worth the fight.

[roseau]

America has done best to spread democracy by:
1. Behaving well towards others, demonstrating the strengths of democratic government
2. Welcoming immigrants and refugees, whose love for the American way of life has done more to promote democracy abroad than any occupation ever will
3. Spending money directly on humanitarian/nation building that raises the prospect of the women and children who are victimized by crap governments
A desire for Levi's and rock and roll did more to bring down European communism than decades of demonstrating our military might.
Let's just stick with that.

[Chipher]

I think the Levis and the Izzies are part of the problem, not the solution.

[deepfreezevideo]

Best post so far on the subject.

[deepfreezevideo]

Roseau has it nailed perfectly.

[balancedsolution]

Back out, leave small force units.

We can't win.

Some countries have to find ways to fix things themselves.

We do.

We aren't the world's saviors.

I feel for these people but it's their land, and their government now.

Hell Mexico is corrupt.

[kicksave7]

Time to go and call it a day...no one has ever been able to win a war in this country. We are wasting young American lives in the pursuit of what? Stop the insanity and just send in the drones.