2010 Poll: Republicans Edge Ahead Of Democrats

Republicans have edged ahead of Democrats in Gallup's latest generic congressional poll, suggesting a strong GOP showing if the 2010 House elections were held now.

Asked if they would choose the Republican or the Democratic candidate for their district if the congressional elections were held today, 48% chose the former; only 44% chose the latter.

Up until recently, Republicans had been trailing Democrats by a few points in this poll. The main shift has come among independents. That group's preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown from a one-point advantage in July to a 22-point gap. (In the year before the 2008 elections, Democrats consistently held double-digit leads in the Gallup generic poll, although that lead narrowed in the months leading up to their sweeping election gains.

Independent voters also helped Republicans win in last Tuesday's gubernatorial elections, suggesting that those defeats were a bigger warning sign than most Democrats are willing to admit.

But these results don't paint a complete picture. Voters' identification with the Republican party is incredibly low. In mid-October, the average data compiled from dozens of surveys over more than a year showed Republican ID at 22.5 percent, Democratic ID at 33.7 percent and Independent ID at 35 percent. So evidently more independents are prepared, at this point, to vote like -- but not actually become -- Republicans.

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Comments

[ReedYoung]

Unless all Republican candidates run as "unnamed Republican" this won't help. When the GOP candidates open their mouths, they're finished in 9 out of 10 districts. Just wait and see!

[PATina]

Some of these comments amaze me.

You have one group of Dems saying... they won't vote for a health care bill w/o a "strong" public option
You have another group of Dems saying... they won't vote for a health care bill if it has a public option
Another group of Dems who want to restrict abortions to cash based
Another group of Dems who won't vote for a bill if the abortion provision remains.


yet... you either ignore this poll as "silly"... talk about the Repubs.. or say the American people are stupid. Maybe... just maybe... the Dems should take a closer look at themselves (a bit of introspection would do you well)... and start trying to fix their problems.

[time4change2009]

It's starting to get pathetic how the media is focusing on which politicians might or might not keep there jobs while NOT focusing on the 15.7 million Americans who have lost theirs. Time for America to refocus on the true priorities of our country.

p.s. Unless the pols turn our unemployment around...they ALL need to lose their jobs !

[salkoc]

polls are not reliable .......the first test is ny23 .....first seat went to a democrat who has not won in over 100 years . if democrats do the right thing and the economy gets better ........they will keep the mantle . they must put through the agenda the MAJORITY voted for.

[iblogleft]

It will not be any help to the democrats when progressives sit out the next election. If the Democratic party chooses to side with the conservatives when they were given a clear mandate for progress, we will give this country some more suffering with the republicans.

Eventually enough people will be directly effected by the ignorance that we will get real reforms. Too bad it takes a meltdown before people wake up.

[mcvet]

WHICH Republican Party? The REAL Party of the Tea Baggers?? LOL Silly poll and silly results when you consider that "Republican" is defined so differently in so many places these days.

[PATina]

And what defines Democrat these days? DLC, Progressive, Blue Dog? Sorry... the Dems have just as many problems as the Repubs and instead of pointing fingers and laughing at them... you should be working on them.

[keepacoolhead]

I wouldn't worry about polls all that much. If Democrats would start acting more like Democrats instead of Republican lite they might be higher in the polls. Need to shift focus onto Republican misery caused over the prior 8 years.

[timhere]

Bad news. It is going to be a bad 2012 for democrats. They are blowing their chance to change the course of american history for the next 50 years. While most independents do not like republicans over democrats in general; they like their republican in their district.

[EbonBear]

First off, let's remember that we're still a year out and literally ANYTHING could happen in that time period.

Secondly, after 24/7/365 of violent attacks from the right, the Democrats numbers are down a little. That's a surprise?

Thirdly, I actually think the GOP is going to interpret their victories last week as a signal to go even further off the edge of the ultraright fringe which will rev up their base... and scare the living he// out of everyone else. The ultraright base the GOP are currently playing to are getting so vitriolic and so militant (and no, right-wingers, you are far more hateful and militant that the left ever were to Bush) that they seem to be planning less for an election that for a violent revolution. Playing to that base will fire them up and get them shouting even more hateful things and in some areas, where the base is strong enough, it might win a few seats but it will also scare off the moderates that they need to appeal to to win.

[OnReflection]

DEMOCRACY the tyranny of the stupid !!

[EbonBear]

Fully agreed. The problem with giving everyone a vote is that so many people are so frickin' dumb.

[rmonroe]

Heck, if everyone really did vote we wouldn't even have a Republican Party in this country. Sure there are some stupid people out there that watch Fox News and listen to Rush Limbaugh, but there are even more people who are being slammed by this economy, working their fingers to the bone for next to nothing, who don't even get out and vote to make a difference in their community. Now with Acorn not getting the vote out it will be worse. The key to change is getting more people to vote, not less.

[farii]

by jan 2010 watch the polls take a 360 turn,plus if Americans wants to put the party of ''NO'' into a position where they can really say ''NO'' go ahead dig your own graves..

[underthegun1]

the sad thing is that Obama could have buried the whole Republican party during the election, called them out for the crooks they were and taken them out of every election to come (excluding Texas). But instead he chose to be nice and allow them to continue., which was disapointing to say the least. now this is what we have to deal with...again.

[Willow712]

With all the crazy things the right wing Fundamentalist Taliban has been saying, I would be amazed if they had a majority in 2010. And if they do, the people in this country are stupider than I ever thought and they will deserve everything they get. I live in Iowa because my Grandchildren are here. After they are grown (the youngest is 14), I don't have to live in this country anymore. I am divorced, footloose and fancy free.

[ReedYoung]

Children should get the chance to travel abroad while they're still young. Or if you're their primary guardian, to live abroad.

[Philclock]

Obama could try apologizing to the American people.

[EbonBear]

For allowing the Right to continue controlling Congress? Yes, that might work.

[Philclock]

Please explain, last count Democrats had a 70+ seat majority in the House, almost 20 seat majority in the Senate.

[GiveUsFree]

Hey GOP, it's fine when you are hugging the bear, but you won't like it so much when the bear is hugging you. In other words,Repugs have been doing all the attacking. Dems will hit back. They better!