Black Friday 2009: Will Consumers Show Up On Key Shopping Day?

2008 had the worst holiday shopping season in decades--will this year be any different? Retailers are hoping deep price cuts, social media specials, and early sales leaks will lure consumers in as the holiday shopping season kicks off.

Analysts predict a heavy turn out despite the recession, in part because there's less competition (45 retailers have gone under since last year's shopping season) and in part because of the promise of big bargains. But with unemployment in double digits will people buy or browse? Market research firm IBISWorld predicts retail sales will rise 2.8 percent over this weekend to $42.9 billion, while others give much bleaker estimates saying retail sales may DIP 1%. While this weekend does not always predict accurately spending for the next month, a weak Black Friday is a bad omen.

Even if consumers are on the hunt will lowered expectations from major retailers come back to bite them? Having failed to sell large parts of their supply last year some companies like J. Crew and the Gap have cut back between 10 and 20% on inventory, meaning popular items many not have a chance to become runaway successes. This hasn't stopped retail giants from throwing open doors early with massive sales to lure consumers in starting as early as midnight, but it might affect the overall sales.

Comments

[time4change2009]

12:19 PM on 11/28/2009

Here's a question for the HP commenter experts (who I have found to be much smarter that the high paid 'experts')

Question: Considering the majority of holiday gift purchases will be made through credit cards/credit...and considering the fact that the financials are actually trying to hoard money and not give credit-would a good holiday season hurt the financials ?

[invest in jobs]

10:42 AM on 11/28/2009

Where is the change we can believe in? Why more troops in Afghanistan?

rec website: http://financeopinionss.blogspot.com
Playing the center isn't a viable strategy in the long term because the republicans wont compromise and he'll lose some dem support.

[Americanium]

12:52 AM on 11/28/2009

So America's geniuses fired their employees and expect that an unemployed person is going to go out and spend money they do not have.

Thank you Captain America...lay off a couple more million and watch your revenue grow! In fact I guarantee that your Christmas sales will be the best in 100 years!!

[jesuswazasocialist]

04:25 AM on 11/28/2009

Yes that person is going to go out get an Credit card and then spend spend spend.
Buy all those Chinese made goods and thereby help China in its recovery.

[BaBBlingFool]

09:17 PM on 11/27/2009

Personally, I'm sick of the Black Friday hype. The Christmas decorations went up in the stores well before Halloween. By this time I'm sick of it. Poll after poll show that consumers think the stores start too early. Yet, year after year they start earlier. Then they measure the Thanksgiving to Christmas sales and say "people aren't buying as much". YOU STARTED DURING SUMMER!!! What do you expect?
Consumer based economy. Bleh. Until we go back to a MANUFACTURING based economy (which I can't see happening), they better get used to less and less.
And folks, please, PLEASE, don't go into debt for Christmas. Despite what Madison ave, Wall Street, and the MSM would have you believe, it isn't about how much you spend.

It's about your family, your friends, and the blessing you have in your life. IMHO

[texastrixie]

07:43 PM on 11/27/2009

We ended up doing almost all our shopping on Wednesday. We went to Sam's and bouth bought underwear, and a few groceries. Thursday AM we looked at the ads, but I couldn't find anything I wanted enough to get up at 4 AM for. My sister-in-law went out to buy a tv for her college son and she hit Wal-Mart, Pennys, and the local discount mall - all before noon. She said everywhere was packed, and people had baskets filled with gifts. Hopefully they are not putting them on their credit cards (this is Texas, but I think we will experience a bigger downturn next year).

I wlll continue to look at the ads the rest of December, but I usually buy things online now, and for as close to nothing as I can get them. Since most stuff is made outside the USA, you really only afford a profit for the corporation and a salary to the store clerk. It seems almost anti-American economy to buy foreign made goods. At least when you buy groceries, most of them are grown here (at least what I buy).

Few kids are already taken care of for Christmas, so probably won't buy anthing else since I bought a new coat (over the internet of course) for half price. Christmas has lost a lot of its luster.

[danadenisenunez]

02:26 PM on 11/27/2009

Nope, people will still grab the black friday fever. As for the post.

Many people are really rushing-in to department stores and retail shops to avail of big discounts this coming black friday up to cyber monday. It's a great time to save hundreds of dollars on selected items. Here's a good addition to your list:

http://bit.ly/Amazon-store-promo
http://bit.ly/target-store-sales

Park your car safely and properly :D

[Joker Jam]

01:59 PM on 11/27/2009

I didn't spend a dime on Black Friday...not contributing to a rigged economy run by globalists who have contempt for the working class while bailing out the big banks at tax payer expense.

good articles: http://financeopinionss.blogspot.com

staying home 2010, 2012

[breakingpoint]

02:08 PM on 11/27/2009

It's BUY NOTHING DAY!
if you can’t avoid shopping at the box stores and malls at least use up those unspent gift cards and points and remember don't buy any more gift cards.
http://jischinger.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/buy-nothing-day

[hw]

12:19 PM on 11/27/2009

Let's just change the name of the holiday to "Thanksforshopping"

Then we can change that other holiday to Xma$$

[youhavebeenhad]

11:02 AM on 11/27/2009

How many troops will be k illed next year in B arry's Afghan war??

[brady61995]

11:07 AM on 11/27/2009

you are dis gusting to use troops in any comments. now go wash your mouth out

[LeftCoastLarry]

11:14 AM on 11/27/2009

Childish one liners are all you can manage?
Grow up. Then start to post something half-way intelligent.

[Waiting for Something]

10:54 AM on 11/27/2009

I am fairly twitching from the irony of rushing out to buy foreign-made goods to 'stimulate' our economy, and that every news site I checked today headlined us with Black Friday updates.

We have learned nothing. Absolutely nothing. Consume away, go into debt for things, buy things made by overseas companies, many of whom are directly responsible for job losses here. I am not in a glass house; it is merely my observation, and painful at that.

And, we continue to use this day as a barometer of our fiscal health. It should be a barometer of our collective mental illness.

I do believe we are doomed.

We

[youhavebeenhad]

11:01 AM on 11/27/2009

The problem is most Americans cant afford American made stuff.

[judyc]

12:41 PM on 11/27/2009

or find them.....

[sonoffestus]

12:27 AM on 11/28/2009

Possibly if they had living wages and understood what quality and real value is all about.
Most people are all about cheap.

I won't spend $15.00 for pair of shoes that will only last a year, but did spend $275.00 on a pair 28 years ago. I took really good care of them, had them resoled a couple of times and they're still looking fine. A bit worn,but very classy.Those shoes travelled the world. I don't dress up that often anymore,but I still love those shoes. Johnson Murphy's when they were still made in the States.

If I live long enough to need another good pair, I'll spend $300 again and leave them for the next guy to wear. I did that with sterling flatware as well 28 years ago. I have used it everyday from day one. I'm still making my peanut butter& jellies with it. Just like the shoes it was one of my best investments, especially at today's silver prices. I wonder who will be using it when I'm gone.

I'm not wealthy person, but I know what quality and value is all about.

[karen1p]

01:14 PM on 11/28/2009

My family is doing only home-made gifts....and only to one person in the family. It will be a fun, old-fashioned Christmas.

I remember reading my Mom's diary and it said she got an apron (home-made) and a nickel. What's wrong with today's attitude toward Christmas? Look at the difference.

[youhavebeenhad]

10:18 AM on 11/27/2009

B arry polling under 47% is not good. No President in history has ever been re-elected when during their first term they polled under 47%.

[foxinretreat]

10:21 AM on 11/27/2009

remember ronny raygun?

[youhavebeenhad]

10:28 AM on 11/27/2009

Ronnie never polled under 47% in his first term

[mcmutter]

10:27 AM on 11/27/2009

GOP has NO CREDIBLE CANDIDATES....

GOP has never won by running a horse's arse....at the top of the ticket

[youhavebeenhad]

10:32 AM on 11/27/2009

If Americans are mad, Mickey Mouse could win. That is why we have B arry now. Folks were angry. But lots of buyers remorse

[DollyLama1964]

10:48 AM on 11/27/2009

only democrats can win that way

[x27]

10:14 AM on 11/27/2009

The holidays have been ruined for years by the crass consumerism that comes with them.If you have children it is different.But for me I can hardly wait for them to be over.

[judyc]

12:31 PM on 11/27/2009

You know--that's what has made me dislike Christmas. In October, I am walking into stores with decorations already up. Shop, shop, shop.

We have forgotten that "Jesus is the reason for the season".

Fanned you, by the way.

[youhavebeenhad]

10:14 AM on 11/27/2009

Don Imus recently stated tha America survived 4 years of Carter. And we should be able to survive 4 years of B arry

[robodweeb]

10:16 AM on 11/27/2009

Too bad we couldn't survive 8 years of Republicans.

[DollyLama1964]

10:22 AM on 11/27/2009

we did

[Harry Scrote]

01:38 PM on 11/27/2009

Seriously, bro-- Don Imus?

[bastalready]

10:12 AM on 11/27/2009

I'll catch up with you good people later.Have a wonderful day!!!!

[judyc]

12:35 PM on 11/27/2009

You, too.

[youhavebeenhad]

10:12 AM on 11/27/2009

50% of Americans now blame economy on B arry. Not good for B arry

[robodweeb]

10:13 AM on 11/27/2009

So you say.

[sonoffestus]

12:30 AM on 11/28/2009

Yup, the ignorant and stupid 50%.