Forty Percent Of Democrats Say They 'Probably Won't Vote' Next Year: Poll

The following article was produced by the Raw Story and written by John Byrne.

Forty percent of self-identified Democratic voters say they are "not likely" or "definitely" won't vote in next year's Congressional elections, according to a little-noticed poll released over the Thanksgiving weekend.

The poll, which surveyed 2,400 Americans nationwide between Nov. 22 and Nov. 25, found that self-identified Republicans were three times more likely to say they were going to vote next year. The results suggest perilous fights for Democrats in the midterm elections, where the president's party typically lose seats.

Democratic leaders still have an almost 15-point edge in favorability ratings over their Republican counterparts: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has a 41 percent voter approval rating and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) clocks in at 31, whereas Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) draws just 15 percent support to House Minority Leader John Boehner's (R-OH) 14 percent. President Obama's favorability rating sits at 53 percent, according to the poll.

But blogger Steve Benen pulled out the key figures from the question, ""In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?"

Among self-identified Republican voters, 81% are either "definitely" voting next year or "probably" voting, while 14% are "not likely" to vote or will "definitely" not vote.

Among self-identified Independent voters, 65% are either "definitely" voting next year or "probably" voting, while 23% are "not likely" to vote or will "definitely" not vote.

And among self-identified Democratic voters, 56% are either "definitely" voting next year or "probably" voting, while 40% are "not likely" to vote or will "definitely" not vote.

A Daily Kos blogger, who wrote up details from the poll (conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal blog site) called the disparate figures between Republican and Democratic likely voters an "enormous enthusiasm gap."

"This enormous enthusiasm gap... seems to make passing legitimate health care reform an absolute political necessity for Democrats," wrote blogger Steve Sinsiger. "This polling data certainly should be something for Congressional leadership to consider, as they move along the legislative path.

The support for Democrats over Republicans has narrowed, the poll also finds.

Nationally, Democrats now enjoy a 37 percent favorability rating on the handling of Congress, to Republicans' 32 percent.

Benen's advice for Democrats in trouble?

"Finish health care," he writes. "Pass a jobs bill. Finish the climate bill. Re-regulate the financial industry. Finish the education bill. Pick up immigration reform. Repeal 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell.'"

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Comments

[ddanimal]

10:36 PM on 01/04/2010

If voting changed anything, they would make it illegal. LOL.

[lrgphd]

06:33 PM on 01/04/2010

Any Democrat or progressive who deals with his disappointment in the Dems or Obama by not voting is being completely irresponsible. So we didn't get everything we wanted this time. That's an argument for making sure we GET to the polls, not the opposite! If we had more than 60 seats in the Senate, the likes of Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman wouldn't be dictating policy. Stay home at pout, and you will turn the Congress over to the Republicans. NOTHING will get done, and Republican gains in the senate could also impact the next Supreme Court nominee. Organizations I have always supported, like MoveOn, need to get behind the effort to get out the vote and strengthen Democratic control of Congress, unless they really have a better idea. Screaming from the sidelines won't get it done in November.

[MAragon]

07:14 PM on 01/04/2010

The phrase 'Win the battle and lose the war' comes to mind. Obama was just a start and the Dems and Progressives need to think of it in those terms and come out to vote for candidates who will do right by the electorate.

[Parallax M86]

08:10 AM on 12/03/2009

Democrats and liberals who won't vote are shooting themselves in the foot. While they sit out and pout and kick rocks the Republicans will be hard at work trying to vote in an all-Republican Congress just like we had under the first six years of Bush. That will put them in a good position to get someone like Sarah Palin in the White House in 2012.

Heed my word: you sit out this election at your own risk.

BTW that's not an endorsement to necessarily vote for Obama or Pelosi. If you're dissatisfied with Obama and the DNC for being like typical politicians and continuing Bush policy why don't you vote for ACTUAL progressives? Like Dennis Kucinich, Alan Grayson, Anthony Weiner, Patrick Leahy, Russ Feingold, Bernie Sanders, etc.? Dem voters kind of have themselves to blame for continually voting for center-right corporate losers instead of people who actually match their own views.

If you think things are bad now try sitting out the election and letting Neocons and teabaggers get people like Jim Inhofe, Chuck Grassley, John Boehner and Joe "You Lie" Neo-Confederate Wilson to replace Reid and Pelosi. Or eventually even Palin to replace Obama.

[MAragon]

07:15 PM on 01/04/2010

People do need to bear this in mind. The alternative is a nightmare.

[ddanimal]

10:37 PM on 01/04/2010

OK, have fun and keep voting for frauds like Obama.

[Dolmance]

12:17 AM on 12/02/2009

All government disappoints. That's been a truism since the first government.

But any American Democrat who doesn't vote in 2010 is a lazy, shiftless and perfectly swinish mediocrity.

[ddanimal]

10:38 PM on 01/04/2010

"lazy, shiftless and perfectly swinish mediocrity."---Gee, sounds like the Obama administration.

[mikebarden]

07:29 PM on 12/01/2009

The Promises They Make, The Promises They Keep.
Let's face it: Few politicians deliver on the promises they make during a campaign.
Let's face it: Few politicians would get elected if they didn't make those promises.
Some may believe they can deliver, only to be thwarted by the system.
Some probably know it is the only way they can get elected.
Which of these Obama is, I don't know.
There are many who can be blamed.
But we should put some of the blame on ourselves.

[Anym]

02:19 PM on 12/01/2009

Forty Percent Of Democrats Say They 'Probably Won't Vote' Next Year: Poll

Hmmm I wonder why.

Still in Iraq, Afghan surge, Torture legalized,Banks still deregulated,Timothy Gietner, Peter Orzag, Larry Summers,Unemployment is still going up, Weakened stimulus, Health insurance bailout bill to be passed, Bart Stupak, Rendition is still legal. Bankers are still running this country. Glass Stegal has not been reinstalled. The fed isn't being audited. The administration is capitulating to Fox News every day. Still have corn, oil, coal subsidies. Anti-gay laws still being enforced. Dick Cheney not in prison.
Drug war still going strong. On and abstinence only is still being funded.

Seriously why did we elect these people over Dennis Kucinich?

[ddanimal]

10:39 PM on 01/04/2010

No kidding.

I am NOT voting for Obama in 2012. 3rd party for me, perhaps forevermore. I am usually a 3rd party voter, and took a chance on Obama. It was a mistake.

[yagottabkiddinme]

02:14 PM on 12/01/2009

Well let's see....Last year, the Dems begged for that all important majority, the one that would secure the White House and both House n Congress....think of all the wonderful progressive things that will finally get done with the DEMPIRE running the whole shootin' match! Boy we'll show 'em how it's done then.
So I like most folks bought into what has become a sham, and I now regret all thoise mean things I used to say about people who don't vote. It's painfully obvious that it makes absolutely no difference who is running things, it's always the same.....we're toast, anyone have room on a wagon bound for Mexico I can hop on?

[AtheistMaximus]

02:19 PM on 12/01/2009

Corporations have always run American Politics. The revolutionary war itself was rich white men not wanting to pay taxes. You wanna make a real change stop relying on Govt. and Co. to "Better" your life!

[yagottabkiddinme]

02:28 PM on 12/01/2009

You plan on reviving the Know-Nothing Party anytime soon?

[ddanimal]

10:39 PM on 01/04/2010

I just want the government to leave me alone, and not force me to pay for mistakes and bailouts of the super rich banksters.

[AtheistMaximus]

02:02 PM on 12/01/2009

I think what this report should say is. "People with a brain finally realize, that if your dumb enough to vote you're dumb enough to believe them."

[Anym]

02:00 PM on 12/01/2009

Forty Percent Of Democrats Say They 'Probably Won't Vote' Next Year: Poll

Hmmm I wonder why.

Still in Iraq
Afghan surge.
Torture legalized.
Banks still deregulated.
Timothy Gietner.
Peter Orzag.
Unemployment is still going up.
Weakened stimulus.
Health insurance bailout bill to be passed.
Bart Stupak.
Rendition is still legal.
Bankers are still running this country.
Glass Stegal has not been reinstalled.
The fed isn't being audited.
The administration is capitulating to Fox News every day.
Still have corn, oil, coal subsidies.
Anti-gay laws still being enforced.
Dick Cheney not in prison.

Seriously why did we elect these people over Dennis Kucinich?

[alternate id]

01:58 PM on 12/01/2009

There is a lot of "my guy can do no wrong and if you criticize him in any way you are a despicable turncoat" nonsense going around.

It's just as ridiculous now as when W supporters practiced it.

[jmpurser]

02:01 PM on 12/01/2009

Yeah. A lot of people look at politics like a sports franchise. Rah rah for us. Never mind what we're doing to the nation just rah rah for us.

[Emmett54]

01:51 PM on 12/01/2009

Is all this commenting considered,"Dithering"?

[Emmett54]

01:31 PM on 12/01/2009

To vote or not to vote.Makes no difference,Electoral College sees all. knows all and will fix all.So not to worry.

[Chernynkaya]

01:20 PM on 12/01/2009

I believe that once Bush’s term was over and we Democrats won the election, there was this tremendous amount of pent up anger and relief that the bad times were over. But it led to impatience for change that was unrealistic. We were so sick of the past eight years, we couldn’t wait to undo all the damage. Anything less than 180 degrees seems like no progress, but that’s not true. This country was so fed up, we behaved like prisoners let loose and we justifiably want to burn down the prison. Those who say they will not vote for Obama again are not burning the prison, they are actually rebuilding a super-max with a cruel new warden.

[vt1991]

01:25 PM on 12/01/2009

Well said. Very eloquent. Could not agree with you more.

[Heauxbeaux]

01:31 PM on 12/01/2009

Your comments are spot on and you are fanned!

I don't know why, but it seems that it is just too difficult for Democrats to drag their happy butts out to vote. Maybe they think they will punish the slacker congressional Democrats by allowing the Republicans to vote in their candidate and thereby remove the current majority. But they are only allowing the abuses of the previous eight years to continue.

Please vote your conscience one way or another, but above all, please VOTE!

[Chernynkaya]

01:33 PM on 12/01/2009

And back atcha--Thanks!

[yagottabkiddinme]

02:17 PM on 12/01/2009

I give up....it makes no difference...See Tom Jeffersons thoughts on what to do when it gets bad.

[Carl Caroli]

01:09 PM on 12/01/2009

Totally understandable given that we now know who our representatives actually represent, namely, their corporate sponsors. They have squandered their majority looking for compromisees to keep the campaign funds flowing. I don't need to vote for that.

[Chernynkaya]

12:59 PM on 12/01/2009

40 % of polled Democrats say they won’t vote in 2010, but we don’t know who those 40% are—Progressives? Moderates? Blue Dogs?

As a Progressive, I am looking for anything that Obama has done that I wanted and I am looking hard, because I want to keep the faith. The TARP was probably necessary and I’ll trust that it prevented a worse financial meltdown. But it was enacted with huge flaws. The stimulus was an important accomplishment that I believe saved jobs, but it was seriously compromised. And it looks like the same will be said of health care reform. On those three big items I’ll give Obama a “C.” The thing to also bear in mind is that I’d give any Republican an “F.” On Afghanistan I am conflicted (on that subject, it’s either “Pass” or “Fail”) but leaning towards an “F.”

Unfortunately, “C” grades are not inspiring and they don’t mobilize voters. I ask myself, what would the polls be like if Obama had governed so far as a real liberal? Would more people come and vote? Or would the progressives stay home out of complacency? Again, who is staying home? The moderates should be happy with Obama, and the Blue Dogs are only Democrats on social issues—they should be miserable.

[ddanimal]

10:41 PM on 01/04/2010

TARP was totally unnecessary, and actually destructive in the long run.

Obama's economic "plan" is a scam and failure.