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After the death of Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) on Monday, what happens to Pennsylvania's 12th district congressional seat?

Murtha died Monday at the age of 77 after complications from earlier gall bladder surgery. Just last week he became the longest-serving member of Congress in Pennsylvania history.

Now voters in Pennsylvania will most likely go to the polls to elect a replacement for the late congressman on May 18, according to the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza:

According to state law, the governor has ten days once the vacancy is officially declared to decide on the date for the special election, which can come no sooner than 60 days following that proclamation.

That likely means the special election will be held on May 18, which is the date already set for federal primaries around the state.

RealClearPolitics looks at the voting patterns of the 12th district, and at the results of previous election cycles:

Murtha's passing will set the stage for the seventh House special election in the 111th Congress, in a district that was evenly split in 2008 between John McCain and Barack Obama. ... This year, Murtha was facing a primary challenge from Ryan Bucchianeri, a former Naval officer and placekicker on the Navy college football team. Republican Bill Russell, whom Murtha defeated with 58% in 2008, is running again, as is Republican businessman Tim Burns. ... The area that now makes up the 12th District was heavily Republican from the Civil War to the 1930s, according to the Almanac of American Politics. Without Murtha, it is the quintessential swing district. McCain won it by fewer than 1,000 votes; John Kerry won it by 8,000 votes four years earlier.

Democrats have won every special election in this Congress, including one pick-up from the GOP in New York 23. Another is set in the Florida 19th on April 13, with yet another seat opening soon when Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) steps down to run for governor.

The Washington Examiner's Michael Barone has more details on political makeup of the area Murtha represented:

The 12th district was created in its present form as part of a Republican gerrymander in 2002. Traditional Republican territory was placed in the adjacent suburban Pittsburgh 18th district, which elected Republican Tim Murphy that year and has reelected him ever since. Republicans have fared less well in other Pennsylvania districts; they won a 12-7 edge in the delegation in 2002, but by 2008 Democrats reversed that and until Murtha's death had a 12-7 edge of their own. Murtha has been attacked for earmarking projects to his district and to companies headed by former aides and had spirited opposition in 2008 but won 58%-42%.

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Comments

[wallyman]

To hell with what's going to happen to his congressional seat.....what's going to happen to his airport?

[Trogenhorse]

REALLY? Can we mourn his life first?

[ElleVelle]

RIP - Thank you sir for your service to our country.

[Mister Wu]

I've seen the offensive tweets. Win one seat in Mass. and the GOP become simply ghoulish!

[H321]

Apparently they inadvertently removed a large part of his intestine? Umm... wtf? Malpractice?

[darr]

Actually, I heard they nicked his intestine during gall bladder surgery. It isn't as bad as remiving a part of his intestine but still grounds for malpractice.
Knowing the family, I doubt that Joyce will sue.

[H321]

Ughhh! That's terrible.

[mitchflorida2]

Murtha is dead. We must now move on and hopefully elect a Republican to this pivotal seat.

[darr]

Mitch, i am gathering from your nick that you are NOT from his district or even Pennsylvania.
I am.
There is no way in hades that this district will elect a Republican representative.
In 2008 after the airport scandal hit the pundits predicted and polls showed that the Republican that moved from Maryland just months prior to jumping into the race was ahead and not only would win but would do so by a decent margin.
Well, they were wrong. Not only did Murtha win, he won soundly.
I predict a Democrat win for his seat especially if one of his top aides desides to run.

[Trogenhorse]

Do you have any compassion? I think it's in poor taste to talk of this man's seat so soon.

[Texas4Obama]

It is sickening that the republicans all over the net at various OTHER websites are all ready 'going bananas' about taking Murtha's seat, and comparing it to Teddy's seat in Massachusetts.
Good Lord people he just died today!
Everyone needs to show some respect.

[hmmmmmer]

What do you expect from the soulless? Besides, are the Democrats actually going to be capable of getting up off their butts and going out to vote at anytime soon, or they just going to try and teach Obama a lesson until the Republicans have control again.

[darr]

Thank you Texas (boy that's a phrase I didn't think I'd ever say, LOL).
For all of us here in Pennsylvania are mourning our dear friend.
He had his faults but was true to this country and his constiuents til the last.
I remember the first time I met him. I was about 11 years old and I went to a banquet with my father because Mother was sick and couldn't attend. During the event my father and I were in the lobby and Jack walked in and stood in the doorway. Two things about that that I will always remember. One is that Murtha knew my father by name. The other is just how impressive his size is. It seemed to me that he filled not only the doorway he was standing in but the whole room.
John was bigger than life in personality and stature. He was a big, brave man who made mistakes but never stopped fighting for the country and people he loved.

[Texas4Obama]

darr,
There's a bunch of us good folks down here in Texas.
Over 3.5 MILLION Texans voted for Obama in 2008.
Obama won the majority of our largest cities/counties: Austin, Dallas, Houston, El Paso, San Antonio, etc.
It's the rural folks that ended up giving Texas to McCain, but Texas will be a BLUE state again one of these days ;)
Recently we here in Houston elected our first female gay mayor.
Texas is NOT as red as most people think it is.
p.s. My condolences to the people of Pennsylvania for ya'll's loss.

[Trogenhorse]

agreed

[TKI]

R.I.P. Rep. John Murtha. We'll take it from here.

[TheJibreelaMonsters]

can the poor guy assume room temperature before we start thinking about his congressional seat? Talk to me about this tomorrow at least

[FutureUnperson]

It will be tough for his successor to bring home more bacon than Murtha.

[katooom]

for the country as a whole - that is a good thing.

[Trogenhorse]

There is politics and they there are people like you. The man just died. His death was due to a medical accident. That sudden and untimely event has to be digested by the people who knew and loved him. Can we allow that?

So sad that politics can remove even the decency of respect for life. Where do people like you come from?

One day someone will enter a waiting room to tell your loved ones you are gone. Do you really want statements like the one you made to be made to your loved ones?

Shame on you and anyone who can not put politics aside for a moment. And by the way, that includes the person who posted this blog

[docallen001]

Not if it is a Repub.