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Gulf Oil Spill: How Much Oil Is The Containment Dome Catching?

Containment Dome

First Posted: 06/07/10 09:47 AM ET Updated: 05/25/11 05:40 PM ET

As of Sunday evening, BP was reporting more success with the latest method of containing the well that has now been gushing oil into the Gulf of Mexico for 48 days. The company says its new dome is diverting 10,500 barrels of oil to a tanker above. But the number again raises the still unanswered question of just how much is actually coming out of that well.


A new containment dome was successfully lowered over the site last Thursday. There are four vents in this dome, and the company has been closing them very slowly, for fear that too much pressure may build up in the cap or that it could cause the formation of icy hydrates that caused a previous capping effort to fail. They've only closed one vent so far, which means quite a bit of oil is still gushing into the Gulf, as you can see vividly on the live video feed.


The high figure that they've reported capturing would indicate that the larger estimates of how much oil is coming out of the well may be correct. Up until May 27, both BP and the federal government maintained that the release was just 5,000 barrels per day. The team of experts assembled by the federal government then offered an estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels per day. But a closer inspection of the government's actual report reveals that the figure is probably closer to the high-end estimate offered by the team studying video of the release site, which estimated that as much as 25,000 barrels has gushed from this well every day for almost seven weeks now. It could be even higher now; before placing the new dome last week, the riser from the well had to be cut off, which may have increased the flow by as much as 20 percent.

The improved capture rate from the well is a positive sign, but the cap is not expected to siphon all of the oil even if or when they get it operating at full capacity. And there are already worries about the capacity to collect the oil at the surface; the boat holding the oil now only has the capacity for 15,000 barrels a day.

Meanwhile, BP CEO Tony Hayward is still pedaling specious claims about the spill, saying Sunday that the cap is siphoning "probably the vast majority" of the oil. We've known for quite a while now that BP has a problem with math. The live video indicates the company is still not being upfront about the true extent of the disaster.

In response to Hayward's most recent comment, Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) send the company a letter requesting some clarity on just how much oil it actually thinks is coming out of the well at this point. Markey also asked what the company intends to do with all this oil, a separate but equally important question that I'll visit in a future post.

So the question remains: When will BP be honest about just how much oil they're responsible for releasing into the Gulf?

If you appreciate our BP coverage, please consider making a tax-deductible donation. If You Liked This, You Might Also Like...

* Is the Gov't Low-Balling the Spill Size?
* BP Spill Two to Five Times Previous Estimate
* BP's 10 Biggest Screw-Ups
From the top hat to the top kill, it's getting hard to keep track of them all.

Kate Sheppard covers energy and environmental politics in Mother Jones' Washington bureau. For more of her stories, click here. She Tweets here.

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As of Sunday evening, BP was reporting more success with the latest method of containing the well that has now been gushing oil into the Gulf of Mexico for 48 days. The company says its new dome is di...
As of Sunday evening, BP was reporting more success with the latest method of containing the well that has now been gushing oil into the Gulf of Mexico for 48 days. The company says its new dome is di...
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RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
11:15 PM on 06/08/2010
"When will BP be honest about just how much oil they're responsible for releasing into the Gulf?"

Never, of course, and to expect them to ever be is either the height of naivete or stupidity - take your pick.
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john frodo
armchair expert
09:22 PM on 06/07/2010
The Mexican spill of 79 that went on ten months and was just a footnote spilled 30 thousand per day according to official records. So you can safely put that around 60, so I would say our boy is going around 120. Just my paranoia and experience speaking.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Reload
07:28 PM on 06/07/2010
This topic of HOW MUCH OIL IS GUSHING DAILY, has been on the top of my list of unanswered questions since the size of the spill changed threefold in two days in the first week of the spill. We, the American public would like to know the real answer. It was 5,000 barrels for weeks, because BP wasn't worried about finding out how much was escaping, just stopping the leak. Yeah right, because in BP's own response plan the FIRST, I repeat, FIRST thing you should do in a spill like this is find the amount of oil leaking. They were worried that once they put out a number and people find out how much is escaping that they would look foolish. Its beyond looking foolish, and the longer it takes to get the number right the more it looks like BP tells the US gov't, "hey we'll let you know when we feel like it." It's like they pick a number out of a hat and give it to the gov't and they put it out there in the media. One thing has remained consistent, they've (BP & Gov't) lied from day 1.
06:12 PM on 06/08/2010
How much oil was the well producing before the break?? Seems to me that would be a reasonable figure to adopt as the amount that is being spilled now. We also know how much is being salvaged. The difference is what is still being released into the environment.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
omobob
left coast, usa
06:07 PM on 06/07/2010
25,000 barrels has gushed from this well every day for almost seven weeks. Bp cant seem to manage a lie without revealing more lies. By admitting diverting 10,500 barrels of oil Bp has confirmed their steadfast estimate of 5,000 barrels to be erroneous perhaps even criminally liable for knowingly falsifying estimates to seek to pay less in Liability. Insurance fraud. Bp can only be trusted now to lie.
04:49 PM on 06/07/2010
By looking at the live video feed, it sure looks like it's leaking as much or more than before, even AFTER they're siphoning 11,000 barrels a day(as of yesterday). Hmm.......numbers, numbers, numbers....
04:27 PM on 06/07/2010
Thank you Huffington for being the first to say what no one else has for several days! ...it's plainly obvious that the leak is still extreme and it's difficult to see any real change in the flow. It's definitely NOT capturing the 'majority' of the oil.
04:22 PM on 06/07/2010
There should be no mystery about the amount of oil being spilled and what percentage is being caught.
The amount being spilled is the same amount as the well was producing before the break occurred. We also know how much we are catching. Seems very simple to me.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Martin Musetsky
03:21 PM on 06/07/2010
Live feed of all the cameras on the Gulf floor: http://climate.the-environmentalist.org/2010/06/live-video-feeds-of-gulf-oil-disaster.html
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rougebaisers
02:34 PM on 06/07/2010
It sure looks like it is spewing more than ever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uECXu2aML6U

Can't somebody look to the artist Christo. He put up a running fence nearly 25 miles long, http://www.christojeanneclaude.net/rf.shtml in california. He has wrapped bridges. HOW HARD would it be to have the entire area around the spew, from its base up to the surface of the ocean, encased in a strong enough material to keep most of it contained...hell make it out of a petroleum product. Imagine a giant hose of sorts, anchored to the ocean floor or weighted enough to stay in place, that would actually CONTAIN the spew that is not already being collected by the present failure, where at the surface it could be collected, but not spread. like a boon that is like a giant topless weighted bottom balloon that LITERALLY goes from the ocean floor to the surface.

I hate people who cannot think big.
02:58 PM on 06/07/2010
I thought of the SAME thing myself!
Politisizer
Cute and clever... great combo.
03:45 PM on 06/07/2010
You know the leak is a mile deep right? Think about the dimensions of what you are suggesting...
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Punisher703
Sad But True
02:25 PM on 06/07/2010
In this morning's press conference Admiral Allen said that the government has NOT been relying on BP's flow estimates for quite some time. They are using their own team to measure the flow. But he also believes they will get the most precise measurement once BP closes the vents on the cap, because they can accurately measure how much oil come up the pipe to the surface. Then they can use that number retroactively to figure out how much has leaked since the explosion.

I think BP fears that accurate measurement, which might explain why they're taking so long to close the vents on the cap. With things the way they are, they can spin things in their favor in the media.
03:21 PM on 06/07/2010
Dear Punisher!
Just how stupid does BP think we are? There is a reason they have not closed those other vents, and it has nothing to do with the formation of hydrates! Oil is spewing from the hole under a pressure of some 9500 psi, according to the information I have. If those "vents" were to be closed, the sheer pressure and volume of oil coming of of that "hole" would lift that dome off like it were a styrofoam cup at the end of a garden hose! They will watch the dome, and slowly close the vents as they can, until it just starts to vibrate. Then they will back a vent open to assure that a sudden pressure wave does not dislodge it! BTW is the "official rate" some 2 gallons per second? More like freakin' 20! Lies, lies and more lies, preceded and followed by incompetence and negligence! Welcome to "deregulation" folks! Gonna vote "Big Oil" in 2012, like ya'll did in 2000? Oh yeah, it was the "Dubb-n-Dick Show" alright!
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Punisher703
Sad But True
03:53 PM on 06/07/2010
My understanding of the design of the cap is that is not just resting on top of the pipe. It has teeth that clamp the bottom of it around a pipe flange on the BOP. So closing the vents won't lift the cap off. If it wasn't physically joined to the BOP it would've shot off by now even with the vents open.

My theories for why the vents aren't closed yet are, in increasing order of implausibility:
1) they don't have enough ships on the surface to capture the full flow. Adm. Allen alluded to this in the press conference - they were trying to get a full blown floating production vessel on site.
2) BP doesn't want to close the vents so it obscure the truth and prevent an accurate flow measurement.
3) BP really doesn't want to cap the well at all, and would actually rather the leak kill every living thing in the gulf. If that happened the environmental resistance to drilling in the gulf would be gone, because there'd be nothing left to save.

In any case, BP is just looking out for number one.
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12:35 PM on 06/07/2010
It is all a balancing act--Balance the amount recovered, or as Admiral Thad put it "produced", with deathly effects of unimaginable proportions, with the royalties due US and penalties for spill un Cleanwater Act.

They want us to feel good about catching percentages and not volumes. Assuming the percentage caught is one amount-maximized, then the percentage dumped into our laps is 100 minus the % caught- minimized. Then, minimize the total escaped dumped, not spilled, and you minimize the royalties, and penalties due the US.

Pay up now for all oil dumped, and by the way BP go ahead and pay for the windfall from Cheney when they decided to forego the royalties as well.

Dzoner calculates 100,000 bbl per day then the penalty for Clean Water Act is $500.000 per day.
12:29 PM on 06/07/2010
OK, let's say that BP is now capturing 10,000 bbl/day of oil. The LOW END estimate of oil coming out (of the now unrestricted wellhead) is ~20,000 bbl/day; it is much more likely that the flow rate is now something around 25,000~30,000 bbl/day... meaning, about 15,000 to 20,000 bbl continues to spew out into the Gulf of Mexico, every day, about what it was doing before the "cut & cap" procedure.

HOW MUCH OIL IS BEING CAPTURED IS IRRELEVANT

HOW MUCH OIL IS BEING DUMPED INTO THE GULF is the only thing that matters. Yet, we're getting the impression over here that Americans' attention has been entirely co-opted by BP's "capture rate" NARRATIVE, whilst apparently ignoring the fact that nothing has changed, really: THIS THING IS STILL AN OPEN WILDCAT.

...and for this REGIONAL ECO-DISASTER you've got, what ~600 workers out there with shovels and rakes and plastic bags, etc. BTW, you know, they can only "work" 20 min out of every hour (and only during 1 "daylight" shift) because of the heat and toxicity limitations put on them. You've got to start thinking in terms of TENS OF THOUSANDS of workers if you have any hope at all of not losing a huge chunk of your Gulf Coast, not to mention: perhaps the entire SouthEast Atlantic Coast!
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William Hegemann
Retired Vet
12:13 PM on 06/07/2010
How BP, Big Oil and the Feds Screw Louisiana to Bring You Cheap Gas
The waters off Louisiana produce more oil than anywhere else in the nation. So why is it the second poorest state?
http://www.alternet.org/story/147101/how_bp%2C_big_oil_and_the_feds_screw_louisiana_to_bring_you_cheap_gas
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12:03 PM on 06/07/2010
the 'official' figures are an utter travesty. the SURFACE sheen?????

after the riser was cut, only two things needed to be determined. the inside diameter of the pipe and the velocity of the flow out of it. stupifyingly easy to determine AND extremely accurate.

the inside diameter is ~ 20" = 2.2 sq. ft.

simple math puts the per second flow at 2.2 sq. ft. x ft per second velocity of flow = 2.2 cu. ft. = 16.5 gal. per foot per second of velocity. 3 ft./sec. velocity =~ 50 gal./sec. (simple eyeball of the cut riser video while saying one thousand one to oneself = to my perception AT LEAST 3 ft. per second of velocity)

86,400 sec. in a day x 50 gal. = 4,305,000 gal. = 102,500 bbls. per day.

it's just that simple. determine the velocity of the flow from the video and the EXACT volume of the leak can be determined. how much is crude and how much is solidified methane is a different animal, but even that, averaged, can be calculated ACCURATELY by the liquid vs. gas burn off collected from the tophat operation.

as usual, the scientists are pounding their heads on their lab benches from the sheer duplicity of it all while the general public is groping in the murkiness.

and obamaco are lying through their teeth and, yet again, betraying the american people.

like i said, an utter travesty.
01:12 PM on 06/07/2010
So using my math from earlier with your total the fines for egregious environmental pollution equal:

102,500 barrels per day X $4,300/bbl X 50 days = $22,037,500,000 ($22 billion) so far,

and adding up at a rate of $440,750,000 every day this goes on. Think they'll keep trying to obfuscate the flow rate??? ;)
01:40 PM on 06/07/2010
Good work dzoner. I just worked through your numbers myself and they're all correct. You've got another fan.
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11:58 AM on 06/07/2010
Too bad Richard Feynman is gone. Maybe he'd have an insight and solution that everyone else has missed.
01:41 PM on 06/07/2010
Amen to that.