Daily Kos Founder Suing Pollster Research 2000: 'We Were Defrauded'

Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas took to his website Tuesday morning to announce his recent decision to file a lawsuit against former pollster, Research 2000.

According to Moulitsas, a recent report carried out by "three statistics wizards" shows that a certain amount of the data compiled by the Maryland-based polling company for the Daily Kos's weekly "State of the Nation" poll was, in fact, "bunk."

"We were defrauded by Research 2000, and while we don't know if some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition, we know we can't trust it," Moulitsas wrote in his post.

"Meanwhile, Research 2000 has refused to offer any explanation. Early in this process, I asked for and they offered to provide us with their raw data for independent analysis -- which could potentially exculpate them. That was two weeks ago, and despite repeated promises to provide us that data, Research 2000 ultimately refused to do so. At one point, they claimed they couldn't deliver them because their computers were down and they had to work out of a Kinkos office," he continued.

Moulitsas pledged to hire "a new pollster (or pollsters) to work with, helping us to fulfill our vision of surveying races and issues that are often overlooked by the traditional media and polling outfits."

According to Hotline On Call:

The analysis was conducted for Moulitsas by political consultant Mark Grebner, retired physicist Michael Weissman and wildlife research technician Jonathan Weissman. Grebner was also involved in an analysis of polls by GA-based GOP pollster Strategic Vision that concluded the surveys may have been fabricated. The Strategic Vision analysis was reported on FiveThirtyEight.com, where the three have associated in the past.

Moulitsas cut ties with Research 2000 earlier in June after Nate Silver's popular website FiveThirtyEight.com rated the company as one of the least accurate pollsters in operation.

FiveThirtyEight met Tuesday's news of the forthcoming Research 2000 lawsuit by highlighting a particularly questionable data trend from the company's polls. Visit the site for a graphic interpretation of the data:

In particular, Obama's favorability number rarely remained the same from week to week in Research 2000's tracking, instead almost always moving in one direction or the other by at least a point.

Compare this to Obama's weekly approval numbers in Gallup's polling, which resembled a far more natural and indeed fairly normal distribution.

The bombshell is already already beginning to reverberate across online news outlets. Talking Points Memo has already purged Research 2000's data from their polling databases.

R2K president Del Ali told Talking Points Memo Tuesday:

"I have much to say, however, I am following my attorney Richard Beckler' ESQ's counsel and referring all questions to him. I will tell you unequivocally that we conducted EVERY poll properly for the Daily Kos."

Comments

[Roy in Canada]

10:23 AM on 07/01/2010

Lord HawHaw, AKA Keith Olbermann, used this "research" group, through Daily Kos, to show that Obama is more popular than ever, when EVERY other poll showed the opposite....Olbermann went crazy in defending Kos, and how righteous the pollster was....Will Lord HawHaw now say on his show that he was punked?....No way he ever admit to that....

[trainer3]

09:16 AM on 07/01/2010

I recently defrauded myself. I have told my lawyer to sue me, and he has agreed to defend me from my suit.

I'll see me in court. Ok apparently I have barricaded myself in my room. The police have given me a bullhorn

"trainer..3.....I am under arrest.. if I don't come out with my hands up, I am coming in after me."

[why bother]

01:53 PM on 06/30/2010

Blogs aren't news, hear that Huffpo? Don't confuse popularity with credibility.

[AlGionfriddo]

02:48 PM on 06/30/2010

Fox News (sic) isn't real news and their fans often cite their popularity to prove credibility. You may have a good point.

[why bother]

04:52 PM on 06/30/2010

the "news" on fox news is as valid as the "news" on MSNBC. The problem is when individuals cannot distinguish between news and commentary. Or maybe they try to mischaracterize opposition commentary as its "news" to marginalize the political opponent.
Both sides do it to obfuscate the issue. You know, people who disagree with me are idiots or not as evolved or (insert vulgar expression here) or abusive or racists or ideologues, but not me, nope, I'm a free thinker.

[jimfl]

01:38 PM on 06/30/2010

Markos only wants the truth something the repugs can't stand

[why bother]

02:01 PM on 06/30/2010

Blind - Sheep

[Unshriven]

12:25 PM on 06/30/2010

So many here miss the point. Markos could just have quietly fired R2K and avoided all the "clever" sniping about his polls. But he chose to expose the fraud. That is because it never was about spin.
While he is not perfect, I don't like to see him unfairly maligned by those who are just taking their self-serving bi-asses out for a stroll.

[RefreshingTaste]

12:19 PM on 06/30/2010

Wow ! The pot calling the kettle black.

[Kopie]

12:16 PM on 06/30/2010

Those evil capitalist polling companies.

[Winged Pegasus]

12:07 PM on 06/30/2010

What happened to the Statute of Limitations, or is the KOS group stating that they had just found out about this yesterday? If they're late to the party on polling results, it doesn't bode well for their current news collecting prowess.

[Ryan McKenzie]

12:06 PM on 06/30/2010

Kos must be forming the current administration's economy & stimulus numbers!

[Marvelousdreams]

12:01 PM on 06/30/2010

I always thought the result of polls were screwed in favor of unease and indecision when in reality Americans are not that fickled.

[Margot Sheehan]

12:01 PM on 06/30/2010

Best pollster in the world. All ah know is, Kos was seeing a two-point lead for Obama back when Obama was 8 points behind McCain in all the other polls. (Around Labor Day 2008.)

'Course, it could be the Kossacks knew all about the bank meltdown that was about to be launched, but that is idle speculation.

[Harvey Manfrangensonton]

11:46 AM on 06/30/2010

who would have guessed that the Daily KOs polls were completely bunk?

[AlGionfriddo]

02:50 PM on 06/30/2010

Markos guessed it and now looks to be proven right.

[Dog Whistle Translator]

11:00 AM on 06/30/2010

If they took a shortcut or deviated from scientific polling, then fry 'em. We hold our poll-ers to a higher standard than the wingnut freaks do for Faux and Rasmussen. Those two don't even legally claim to be scientific.

All that said, R2K polling in '06 and 2008 more accurately reflected the ACTUAL RESULTS of those elections than any other major firm. (mydd.com archives) (dailykos boasted this too)

[janfernandez]

10:56 AM on 06/30/2010

My issue is that when we commit to vote for someone we should be willing to back that person 100% to get the job done they were elected to do. This country is wishy washy on everything. If things don't go their way jump ship. That is why we are in this situation. What happened to starting a project and seeing it through. It is though this country has ADD. We go from one elected person to another, one issue to another, one party to another without any rational thought of idea of what is involved with these huge issues the President is dealing with. I never saw Bush with so many issues on a day to day basis. He wouldn't know what to do with more than one thing at a time and that is stretching it. Support the President and put the pressure on him and his staff to do the right thing instead of looking for someone else to find the solution.

[powers2be]

10:56 AM on 07/01/2010

I think you missing the bigger issue. This is about a pollster, whom news organizations rely upon, providing incorrect information which ripples out through their organizations and makes them appear stupid by association.
To your reason people aren't willing to give Obama a chance it is simple. Bush lit a fuse and our economy blew up. Now Obama comes along as says "here, let me light that fuse for you” That is not a CHANGE, let alone the CHANGE I HOPE for. If you can't see the man and his Congress are doing bad things to our long term economic viability you qualify as a blind ideologue.

[Chubbster]

10:22 AM on 06/30/2010

Kos has lost so many readers lately..... time to sue.

[IzzyIdol]

12:03 PM on 06/30/2010

Yep. I have been looking at the comment totals. Bottomline: there are lots of blogs. Nobody has to take crap from dKos. Ah the schadenfreude. It is delicious.