Democratic Surge In Polls Is Just Noise

For the last 10 days, we've been watching the bouncing ball that is the Gallup weekly tracking of the generic House ballot -- the question that asks voters if they are supporting "the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate" in their district. It bounced up for the Democrats in Gallup's tracking two weeks ago, and appeared to remain up last week, but I wrote two posts arguing that the apparent "jump" was most likely random noise, especially since other tracking polls did not show a similar pattern.

Well, sure enough, the latest weekly update from Gallup out yesterday shows the numbers bouncing back in the Republican direction. Republicans now have a five-point advantage (48% to 43%), roughly the opposite of the lead indicated for Democrats for the last two weeks.

Having devoted nearly 1,400 words to this subject already, I'll keep this short: The week-to-week variation in the chart above is mostly random noise. In fact, if any real changes in vote preferences are afoot, we can't distinguish them from the random variation built into each poll. That variation, by the way, is what the "margin of error" is all about. The results above are basically a picture of 46%, plus or minus 3%.

I write this not to criticize Gallup: Their results are bouncy in comparison to some other polls because they do not weight their results by party identification, so random variation within the predictable range is inevitable.

That said, the reason we plot results from many different pollsters on one chart, as we have done at Pollster.com for the last four years, is to try to put new poll results into the larger context of all other public polls. Our national generic House ballot can be tricky, because some polls that report frequently -- especially the Rasmussen Reports automated survey -- have large "house effects" that make their results consistently different than other surveys. Sometimes results from one pollster can "fool" the chart.

However, what our chart distills from all of the available public data on the generic ballot is a slight trend in the Republican direction over the last month or so. You can see that trend even if I set our "smoothing tool" to its least sensitive setting (to minimize the impact of individual polls or pollsters):

You see the same trend even if you drop both the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking:

These are relatively small changes -- just a few percentage points movement at most -- but the changes are mostly consistent across polling organizations, which gives me more confidence that they are real than any brief "jump" in an individual pollster's results.

Comments

[dsgeorge]

08:39 AM on 08/04/2010

polls in a mid-term are such a snap shot because the turn out is typically low. The polls here are actually very close. The so called "enthusiasm gap" is also a snap shot. The media needs ratings, the media needs to get the masses to panic, celebrate, and watch their shows.

Am I enthusiastic to vote in Nov? NO - I live in Michele Bachmanns district and I suspect she will win because the people here are l00ns. Will I vote? Absolutely!! And so will my family - who are absolutely non political but know it is their duty as an American. If you don't vote you cannot complain.

[G52]

05:45 AM on 08/04/2010

Remember all the polls that were putting McCain ahead?

Why do I suspect political foul play once more?

Might be because I got a good look at the author of this article! LMAO!

Just tell us you are a partisan hack!

[kitrat33]

08:17 AM on 08/04/2010

Not a single poll ever had McCain ahead...Rasmussen was the closest poll and it had Obama winning 52-47...the dims are history.

[jjkmack]

08:36 AM on 08/04/2010

Fact: off-year elections always go to party out of power...only two exceptions in the last 130 years in the US.

[EmiliaRomagna]

04:37 AM on 08/04/2010

A couple of weeks ago Joe Biden was on This Week, interviewed by Jake Tapper. Yesterday morning, Howard Dean was on Joe Scarborough's show. Both of these mean are pretty straight shooters and not capable of dissembling in anyway. In fact, I'd say they were two of the more truthful politicians. Both were challenged about the polls and the Dems' chances in November, and both had essentially the same message: the pundits and the public would be surprised. Neither man was worried and their demeanor was so confident, you could tell it wasn't bluff and bluster. The Dems are driving on the message that the GOP is the party of NO and had done nothing but obstruct. They are pushing the "no ideas" strategy. People need to listen to what they're told explicitly ... and to think for themselves.

http://www.myspace.com/virginiadem

[enviro1]

06:35 AM on 08/04/2010

You still don't get it
It's no longer about democrat or Republican. It's about American values. Our government is corrupt, both sides, now is the time to clean house.

[urbanguerilla]

07:10 AM on 08/04/2010

Still doesn't, and won't. I see incumbents winning their primaries, and just sigh, stunned that so many americans are going to need more teeth rattling, to see things for what they are. I remind myself often, of Aristotles rule, of the unenlightened majority, and the price the opposite minority pays, in their headlong rush, into demise. Good luck my friend.

[MyOwnPerson172]

08:50 AM on 08/04/2010

Even if what you say is true, the Republicans are the worser of the two. Putting them back in to make your point will just cause all politicians to slide further that way.

The Democrats, except for precious few (Grayson, Weiner, Franklin), are more Republican than they should be because they figure that that will help get them re-elected. At least Nelson is honest about it.

[realpolitic]

04:32 AM on 08/04/2010

What a disappointment that Republicans are ahead in the polls. I do not see how the public could rally to a party that is the very definition of obstructionism. They have done nothing but block proposals to get us out of the ditch that they dug, then they come back with the same tired ideas of looser regulations and more tax cuts for the wealthy. It did not work under Bush who had one of the weakest job creation records of any modern president, so how can it work now? The GOP is unabashedly for the top two or three percent of society and that is about it. The trouble is the top two or three percent has a litany of lawyers and do not need the protection of the right-wing.

[pinouye]

07:50 AM on 08/04/2010

You use the word "obstructionism", yet things like Obama Care and the Immigration Reform (or lack of it) that are being pushed by Dems in power are less in popularity throughout the USA. So how can you call it obstructionism when more than 50% of Americans are in agreement with them?

[realpolitic]

08:25 AM on 08/04/2010

Republicans are blocking immigration reform and the health care bill is favored by a majority of the population.

http://newsbythesecond.com/fewer-americans-disapprove-of-healthcare-reform-bill-poll-says/3786/

[MyOwnPerson172]

08:53 AM on 08/04/2010

The token Republicans and LIEberman watered down Health Care to the point it is. 70% wanted and still want single payer or a public option but the REPUBLICANS said NO.

They are also stopping Jobs Bills and Small Business help. ...

It's easier to write what they aren't stopping: War funding and tax cuts for the rich.

[lodger16x]

04:04 AM on 08/04/2010

I disagree with you that the bounce toward the Repubs is random noise. What story has dominated the news for 2 weeks? Immigration policy, starting in Arizona. Immigration is not the number 1 issue for many people, but in a troubled economy, any perceived threat from "outsiders" takes on an emotional aspect. If the Dems resort to a knee-jerk "all immigration is good immigration" position, Repubs will beat them over the heads with it in NOV.

[Mark2100]

08:51 AM on 08/04/2010

It is their wedge issue for this election cycle. They like to drag this one out during the mid terms - not so much during the presidential because thats when they like minority voters. These republican strict constitutionalists want to repeal the 14th amendment because it was written at a different time and doesn't apply now days. Funny they aren't saying that about the 2nd amendment.

[latia65]

03:36 AM on 08/04/2010

Polls and Trolls

(___________)

[greygrey]

03:17 AM on 08/04/2010

I don;t believe in polls. No one has called ma an d asked me my opinion. I just know I am voting everything democrat!!!!!!

[jlc0426]

07:53 AM on 08/04/2010

I'm with you, I'm voting (D) on everything (even dogcatcher)!!!!

[kitrat33]

08:19 AM on 08/04/2010

You are a very commendable "Lockstepper"...you should be proud of your blind loyalty.

[jjkmack]

08:38 AM on 08/04/2010

...and the alternative is a thousand times worse, the corporate trickle-down bankster Repubs..not much choice in the US.

[Dave4ObamaSinceDay1]

02:30 AM on 08/04/2010

"It bounced up for the Democrats in Gallup's tracking two weeks ago, and appeared to remain up last week, but I wrote two posts arguing that the apparent "jump" was most likely random noise, especially since other tracking polls did not show a similar pattern.

Well, sure enough, the latest weekly update from Gallup out yesterday shows the numbers bouncing back in the Republican direction."

Well... The slicing and dicing of polls may be interesting to pollsters who need to fill web space to create traffic on their web sites but in reality, the message that solidifies in late October is what determines the outcome of the elections... The Democratic message is coming together nicely and has yet to show its full effect whereas the republican message of "no" is not making the republicans any more popular (look at THOSE numbers)... Untill October, this is just a bunch of pollsturbation....

[bigmikeemike]

02:56 AM on 08/04/2010

Really in truly the problem that democrats face is that they are a known commodity so or dems to win big in this election it is simple the economy must show some progress even if it is a sliver.

The economy stays bad the dems lose the economy improves the dems win. The problem is that this election isn't about republicans this election is about democrats.

Just like 2 years ago no matter what republicans said or did they were going to lose. No matter what the dems say or do if the economy stays bad they will lose.

And more so if the economy is bad when it is time for Obama to get re-elected he will also lose.
The problem that Obama faces is that as any economist understands he is in a conundrum. He' has to deal with a bad economy that needs to be stimulated and a large deficit that must be cut. Doing one inevitably means that you cannot do the other. And if you try to do both you end up doing nothing. So in other words its a lose lose.

For example letting the bush tax cuts expire will reduce the deficit. However it WILL RAISE UNEMPLOYMENT. That is a fact. This is not about politics this is about economics. Its the economy stupid.

[tony wise]

03:11 AM on 08/04/2010

imo obama should have addressed the e,ployment situation on day one. instead of tossing taxpayer money at state governments and not creating nobs, he should have tossed taxpayer money at people. specifically small businesses. he himself said "small buisness is the engine of job creation", and surely as a senator he understood that the financial crisis of 2008 hit small businesses very hard. sba loans were down like 30% and banks had tightened loan qualifications for small businesses as well as large. so those "engines" could not gain access to the capitol to expand. thats why bush had an average of 5.5 % unemployment. if you look at the dept opf labors site, you will see unemployment dropped consistently from mid-2003 till the very last of 2008. you people who say tax cuts didnt help, I would like you to explain exactly what policy changed the direction in 2003 when it had been rising from clintons low 4.8 or so. in fact after the tax cuts bushes numbers even went below 5%. its fact. that said i support the repeal of the tax cuts because i think they were effective for retention, maintenance, not for prompting hiring, as our present situation clearly shows. until obama addresses small buisness and helps them, the tax cuts are pointless and detrimental. unfortunately after the waste of stimulus, good luck with that.

[Dave4ObamaSinceDay1]

03:29 AM on 08/04/2010

"For example letting the bush tax cuts expire will reduce the deficit. However it WILL RAISE UNEMPLOYMENT. That is a fact."

BS...

[tony wise]

02:00 AM on 08/04/2010

if democrats truly believe in global warming, and the threat to ourplanet from pollution, why are they putting everything ahead of addressing it? shouldnt it be a bit more of a priority? what kind of health are people going to have if we destroy our environment? and cap and trade? why trade? how can you sell a nonexistent right to pollute our atmosphere? im not convinced dems are the answer.

[bigmikeemike]

03:46 AM on 08/04/2010

Woah while I support not polluting the environment I am a strong believer that these alarmist voices detract from the environment cause more than they help. Much like the far right winger who screams about the government taking over our lives needs to tone down his rhetoric I think environmentalist need to shift more to the middle(probably not all the way there) so things will actually get done.

Lets be realistic the environment will not be saved in one day or through one passage of a bill. It will only be saved through a slow and gradual shift towards conservation instead of exploiting the environment. To think that somehow the government in one major bill will fix the problem is unrealistic.

The environment wont be saved until people are willing to put the earth before themselves and thats a fact. Not to mention that anything the government can do about the environment will just be a band aid to the actual problem of overpopulation. Global warming is just a symptom of overpopulation as the human population grows there will be more and more symptoms like cancer.

[Tyler James Lee]

08:18 AM on 08/04/2010

"The environment won't be saved": the elephant in the room is always population, and it's the hardest thing in the world to get people to consider it. We seem able to discuss war and peace, economics, politics, civil rights (though not always civilly)...but when the question of breeding ourselves into oblivion comes up people are deaf as posts. What is to be done? We no sooner improve things a little ("green revolution", for example) than we breed up to the new food supply. Can we make it with 12 billion people? Possibly, but I'm grateful to be as old as I am. I won't see it (and I'm convinced it will be rather ugly). I'm sorry for the children...and their children...
Our resources are NOT infinite, and there is NO planet B to go to.

[politicalguy94]

01:50 AM on 08/04/2010

As the polls once again confirm Democrats are behind in the polls, Senate Democrats have delayed passage of the oil spill bill (formerly climate bill) until September. Democrats have little time remaining to pass legislation before the November elections and they're still taking their time! If you disagree with Senate Democrats' decision, phone or email them and express your disagreement with their decision! In addition, tell the Democrats to push a STRONG climate bill, one that sets targets for large reductions in carbon emissions and has incentives for renewable energy, without delay, and to keep pushing one without compromising it, even if it doesn't have the votes!

[Black Misfit]

01:39 AM on 08/04/2010

I know that this "rant" is unrelated to what we are talking about but Palin's candidate in Arkansas lost the primary against another nut-job from the establishment (GOP). May be there's hope for some people after all........ Then again no matter which side of the GOP (the right or the extreme right) people choose, the GOP is still the GOP.

[dagmaclugh39]

01:15 AM on 08/04/2010

These polls are dreadfully inaccurate. The pollsters should call folks at midnight, when they're subconscious defenses are inadequate, and valid responses can be obtained. The responses can be validated or invalidated by a follow-up call at One A.M. , and the intensity of the responses calculated by the number and vulgarity of profanities elicited.

[RonGallion]

01:10 AM on 08/04/2010

Please tell me what are the Democrats going to run on in this mid term election? Economy? Unemployment? Oh wait I know it will be Obama Care that 70% of Americans are in disapproval of and 20 states have filed lawsuits to get excluded from the plan. Or it could be boarder control, or fiscal responsibility. So which one will it be?

[iamwomanofcolor]

05:51 PM on 08/04/2010

sorry...check your stats...the trends have changed in support of Health Care (it is not Obama Care) we all wanted it and most of us still do... so sorry for you and your stats...and border (not boarder) control has picked up since Pres. Obama took office - hear it on the REAL news channels every day - and, lastly, he has picked us up out of the DITCH the former admin. left us in - and never said he would do it over night. That would be an impossibility for any human. But our awesome President is steadfastly working for and on behalf of each and every American Citizen to improve our lives. Whether they/you can see it or not, doesn't mean it isn't so. Blessings to you anyway....

[Winning09]

01:03 AM on 08/04/2010

That's right.

So why don't you take Rasmussen out of your "average?!"

>>>> Our national generic House ballot can be tricky, because some polls that report frequently -- especially the Rasmussen Reports automated survey -- have large "house effects" that make their results consistently different than other surveys.

[crm2008]

12:14 AM on 08/04/2010

For all of you Repubs who think your party will have a land sliding victory in November and will blow out all of the incumbents....wait....not so fast.

What Kyl doesn’t seem to understand–and what Graham has clearly forgotten–is that the stakes on this issue are–politically, at least–far greater than most. It’s a fact that Karl Rove tried, but failed, to get his party to wise up to: You can no longer win the presidency without the Hispanic vote.
http://www.goodporkbadpork.com/2010/08/dylan-loewe-have-republicans-lost-the-white-house-for-a-generation/

The new WSJ/NBC poll on immigration shows that Republicans are getting a short-term bump from whites for their tough-on-illegal immigration stance, but "Latinos, once a semi-swing group of voters, now have swung overwhelmingly for President Obama and the Democratic Party, and younger Hispanics are moving to the Democrats in even greater numbers."
http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/75171/how-republicans-can-win-back-latinos-stiffing-them

As this demographic continues to grow, politicians who ignore or demonize the Latino population in their states will find the road to re-election much more difficult.
http://americasvoiceonline.org/research/entry/the_new_constituents

Have Republicans Lost the White House for a Generation?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dylan-loewe/have-republicans-lost-the_b_667345.html

Latinos are poised to make a difference in November.
http://americasvoiceonline.org/polling/entry/new_latino_voter_poll_updated_research

[Ellipsis]

12:33 AM on 08/04/2010

Let's hope so...

[tony wise]

12:42 AM on 08/04/2010

That was then. This is now.

Now, for Latinos in this country --for anyone who cares about fair, comprehensive and humane immigration reform-- Barack Obama has delivered "change." It's been a change for the worse.

Then, candidate Obama said "I am absolutely determined that by the end of the first term of the next president, we should have universal health care in this country."

Now, the President defines "universal" as everyone but immigrants, who are denied even the opportunity to pay into the system, to demonstrate their commitment to a healthier America, to access care anywhere but the emergency room at the greatest expense to us all.

Then, candidate Obama brought thousands of Latino activists to their feet by promising action on comprehensive immigration reform.

Now, President Obama devotes one out of 71 minutes in the State of the Union to immigration.

Then, he said, "We cannot and should not deport 12 million people. That would turn America into something we're not; something we don't want to be."

Now, in his first year alone, the President has deported a record 387,790 immigrants, ordering ICE to remove 13 percent more undocumented immigrants than George Bush did during his last year in office.

[tony wise]

12:42 AM on 08/04/2010

ya musta missed this article
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-luis-gutierrez/obama-on-immigration-then_b_502074.html

After Barack Obama announced his candidacy, I was in the field from coast to coast promoting him. I promised the Latino community that --at last-- we had a candidate who would fight for us and for our causes.

Then, as a candidate, Senator Obama told packed auditoriums, "I think it's time for a President who won't walk away from something as important as comprehensive reform when it becomes politically unpopular."

Then, he said, "I will make it a top priority in my first year as President - not just because we need to secure our borders and get control of who comes into our country. And not just because we have to crack down on employers abusing undocumented immigrants. But because we have to finally bring those 12 million people out of the shadows."

[crm2008]

01:54 AM on 08/04/2010

Yes I remember hearing him say that, but it doesn't mean he's not going to do it. It may take a little longer that what expected. The economy is the number one priority right now for so many Americans. A lot of Americans have lost their homes, and lost their jobs. A lot of political pundits and politicians are badgering him because of the economy, and they feel he's not getting the economy back to where it used to be fast enough for his 19 month term in office.

He's done a lot of good things with a lot more to complete and on the way, but he has a bitter and resentful Senate who is determined to make sure he fails, so to get things accomplished is going to take a lot longer. In my state the unemployment rate has dropped below 10%, and the Caterpillar plant is coming to my city bring in new jobs, so the economy is gradually bouncing back with other jobs moving here as well.

You can keep up with what promises BO has kept and what has been broken along with what bills are still in the making or in progress.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/