Democrats' Generic Ballot Poll Numbers Drop

Two national polls released today and over the weekend report very different results leading to very different conclusions:

On Friday, under the headline "Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath," Newsweek reported results from a new national poll of registered voters showing Americans evenly split (45% to 45%) on the question of whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress in their district.

This afternoon, Gallup released another national survey of registered voters, also conducted last week, showing Republicans with an "unprecedented 10-point lead" (51% to 41%), the largest Republican advantage Gallup has measured in its nearly sixty years of tracking the so-called "generic ballot."

So what's going on?

Much of the gaping difference between the two polls is probably explained by the usual random variation that affects all polls. Use your mouse to poke around our interactive chart (posted below), and you will soon discover that the latest Gallup survey result is more favorable for the Republicans than most, the Newsweek poll is similarly more favorable for the Democrats and that both fall within the typical range of variation, amounting to +/- three or four points from the trend line. Our overall trend estimate based on all of the available polls gives Republicans a 5.2 percentage point advantage (46.8% to 41.6%)

We could obsess further over the consistent differences ("house effects") among pollsters, but what is far more important, is that the averages show a GOP lead that has been trending in the Republican direction all summer. That trend is consistent with the historical pattern identified here on Friday by political scientists Joe Bafumi, Bob Erikson and Chris Wlezien, the "electorate's tendency in past midterm cycles to gravitate further toward the "out" party over the election year."

Moreover, you see the same trend even if we drop all Newsweek and Gallup polls, plus all of the Internet-based surveys and automated surveys (including Rasmussen), and focus only on the remaining live-interviewer telephone surveys, as in the chart below. The margin for the Republicans is virtually identical (46.6% to 41.4%).

So while the "unprecedented 10-point lead" reported by Gallup probably exaggerates the Republican lead, any result showing a net Republican advantage on the so-called generic ballot is bad news for Democrats. Bafumi and his colleagues estimated their 50-seat gain for the Republicans assuming a two-point advantage for Republicans on the generic ballot, which they project will widen to a six-point lead by November. If the Republican lead on the generic ballot is already that wide (or close), their projection for the Democrats would worsen.

Comments

[DCmykl]

08:07 AM on 09/02/2010

The first time I made a donation in response to a letter from the president and my contribution was receipted by the Democratic National Committee I remembered something I’ve always known but like most had forgotten; despite what may appear to be people working at cross purposes, the president, and House and Senate Democrats are all inseparable parts of a whole. With that in mind I’ve begun to consider what I’ve gotten and am likely to get for the votes and money I’ve given the Democrats over the past few years.

Rather than winding down and bringing to a clean and clear end our military involvement in Iraq the president with the acquiescence of the Democratic congress has created a situation where we may have tens of thousands of U.S. forces stationed in that country for years or even decades. If, as appears to be the case, the domestic situation in Iraq deteriorates our troops there could easily find themselves in combat situations.

Instead of confronting the Republicans in congress and using all of the power of the presidency and the parliamentary procedures available to the Speaker of the House and Majority Leader of the Senate, the Democrats have allowed the Republican minority to set the agenda domestically on everything from unemployment compensation to home foreclosures to banking reform to taxation to immigration to the repeal, or rather the sudo-repeal, of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell.

I’m not so sure the Democrats deserve any more of my votes or money.

[ChasG]

09:47 PM on 09/03/2010

That would mean you prefer GOP and Tea Party over left-of-center Dems, eh?
By the way, how many troops do we still have stationed in Europe, and when did WW II end? A lot more than Iraq. Also we still have more troops in Japan and South Korea combined than we do in Iraq. We also have a huge number of contractors in Iraq helping rebuild the country. Total withdrawal would be unwise, and highly unpopular just about everywhere in the world. It's about being responsible and setting things right.

[INDIVIDUALTERRY]

03:35 PM on 09/01/2010

Whats going on ? Once again we played with the progressives and once again we were disappointed .
Their done. Stick a fork in em'.

[Mare Cvetkovska]

08:18 PM on 09/01/2010

Gee, Terry, not quite right again, and here I go with the mathematics to show you the light: again...just joking, just joking...
In Vegas we have a home and living Magazine, witch list new home builders, so one page future: how much of the new home you can afford, so it list different interest rate, and different house values, to give you estimate how much is your mortgage going to be...
Even someone with no knowledge of the economy can see that the mortgage is correlated more with the interest rate than with the house values...
Voila!
There you go!
Republican or Democrat, give me a break...it was pure logic...
The interest rate of 4% put so much of the people in position to "afford" bigger houses then they usually will only dream about, so they start "upgrading" themselves...
That process being pull, the speculators sensing blood like the shark in the ocean start ballooning the house market...
I remember, there was people calling my house offering me a enormous price, 100 more then I purchase the house for...
The interest rate determine the house prices, because that is ultimately how much you will pay each month to live in it...
Don't be blind sided by the politics...
House bubble was just a reaction to a economic law, that's all...

[goodspkr]

11:14 AM on 09/01/2010

I know the libs won't believe this.

Former U.S. President George W. Bush was a "true idealist" who displayed "genuine integrity and political courage," former British prime minister Tony Blair reveals in his memoirs. Detailing the close professional and personal relationship which developed between the two leaders in the wake of the 2001 terror attacks in the U.S. and during the build-up to the Iraq war in 2003, Blair writes that Bush was "VERY SMART" while having "immense simplicity in how he saw the world." "Right or wrong, it led to decisive leadership... he sincerely believed in spreading freedom and democracy,"...

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/09/01/blair.memoirs.bush.clinton/?hpt=C2

Something for everyone. Bush was very smart but immense simplicity in how he saw the world. Obama's view of the world is anything but simplistic. It's incoherent.

[ChasG]

11:52 AM on 09/01/2010

You're singing to the choir, but the choir is not here.
If Bush is so smart, why did he not listen to Greenspan's warnings about his tax cuts back in 2003? Why did he call off the hot pursuit of bin Laden when we had him surrounded in Tora Bora. And all the GOP pump priming that caused the housing bubble, yet created less than 1 million jobs over his entire 8 year term of office? That transaltes to maybe 10,000 jobs a month.
History will be a better judge than Tony Blair, who obviously can't say he was duped by Bush's simplistic view of a complex reality unless Blair wants to say "I was a fool."
There's another word for someone of "immense simplicity," it's called "simpleton."

[INDIVIDUALTERRY]

03:40 PM on 09/01/2010

Comon , dont try to rewrite history right here in front of us. Bill Clinton had Osama dead 3 times and refused to pull the trigger ..he is all Clintons.
The house "bubble" was progressives messing with the rules so they could pronounce everybody could own a home...even those that couldnt pay. Combine that with a poor savings rate and lackluster stock market and in come the speculators.
I have my own problems with Bush , but your not going to saddle him with yours.

[goodspkr]

03:35 PM on 09/02/2010

The problem is not the tax rate, but the spending rate. Whenever we have a major tax cut the take decrease for about two years after which the percentage of GDP increases to our traditional level . Government at all levels can spend about 34.5 percent of GDP and we balance the books. During W's time we spend at about 36 percent of GDP. O is spending 42 percent of GDP. '

So it wasn't tax cuts that caused the deficit, it was the spending rate.

Question what does 2007 and August 2010 have in common? Answer. They both had the same deficit.

[ChasG]

01:01 PM on 09/01/2010

Here's another link directly to the Gallup poll website showing McCain's 10 point lead over Obama this time of year two years ago. You have to scroll down to the graphic showing "likely voters." McCain's lead was smaller among "registered voters." Most believe polls of likely voters are more likely to reflect the expected outcome of an election.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110107/republicans-enthusiasm-jumps-after-convention.aspx

[goodspkr]

03:35 PM on 09/02/2010

Chas, so how long did he have that lead?

[goodspkr]

03:40 PM on 09/02/2010

Actually I went and answered my own question.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/gallup-daily-obama-52-mccain-42-among-likely-voters.aspx

If you look at this it goes from mid September to the election and Obama never had less than 50 percent and McCain never had more than 46%.

Your whole point was at this time McCain had a 10 point lead which I assume was your way of dismissing the polls. Except two things happened. The financial meltdown and a series of 10 straight polls showing Obama was going to win.

If you want to hold on to hope that the polls will turn good for the Democrats you can (it's called denial), but poll after poll from both conservative and liberal pollster tell the same tale. The Dems are in "deep, deep trouble."

[ExpatinCanada]

06:26 PM on 08/31/2010

He ain’t perfect but he’s still our best hope.

I never expected him to be my messiah. I never thought that he would usher in a new liberal world order. I never expected him to make titanic changes in Washington.

I expected some change and some progress… but not miracles.

I never expected miracles because I remember the Clinton years. The Right unleashed an eight year long torrent of vitriol against that President. They even shut down the government on more than one occasion. It’s insane to think that the Right (and its fringe) were going to suddenly decide to give Obama a pass?

The simple fact of his being elected President was the miracle to me. From that point on he is what he is… a man trying to do an extremely difficult job in the face of overwhelming circumstances and opposition.

I know that folks are tired of hearing this but Bush’s policies are the causes of this mess. Even if President Obama was the “ONE” it would still take more than a couple of years to undo the damage… and a few more years still to restore what was lost.

Liberals and independents need to step back and look at the big picture. So he hasn’t lived up to all of your lofty expectations… is it a “reasonable” response to abandon him and embrace the ones who got us into this mess?

[flossophy]

06:37 PM on 08/31/2010

Yes

[ChasG]

06:42 PM on 08/31/2010

Yes it's reasonable to abandon Obama? Or yes, you agree with this post?

[ExpatinCanada]

06:43 PM on 08/31/2010

So you want to go even deeper into the ditch.

And old friend of mine used to say, "Even a dumb dog won't kiss a hot stove twice".

Have at it.

[ChasG]

06:41 PM on 08/31/2010

Fanned for clarity

[EPLURIBUSUNUM1]

06:16 PM on 08/31/2010

If it looks like a rout, Obama needs to suspend elections for this cycle.

[salty0311]

06:17 PM on 08/31/2010

yeah, that'd win votes... /sarc

[Hassayamper]

05:50 AM on 09/02/2010

Only if he wants to kill the Democratic Party stone dead forever. That would be an unforgivable sin and would probably result in a military coup, which I would support.

[goodspkr]

04:49 PM on 09/02/2010

We have a military that is loyal to the country not any person or any party. The coup attempt would be any party or person who tried to suspend elections. The military would be needed to do that and they wouldn't support it.

[dorzic]

05:20 PM on 08/31/2010

No one's ever asked me to do their generic poll. Most polls I've done have been dependent upon the poller.

[goodspkr]

09:51 PM on 08/31/2010

A generic poll means there are no specific candidates. The pollster simply asks with an unnamed democrat or an unnamed Republican who would you vote for.

It gauges not the state of any specific race, but the mood of the overall country.

[pecosdog]

05:15 PM on 08/31/2010

How is that snivelling, gutless weenie strategy working out for you, dems? Enjoying your numbers, swelled by worthless bluedogs whol are killing your party? It was nice while it lasted, at least the repubs could do no evil for 2 years. Ah, but for the lack of a spine.

[goodspkr]

04:23 PM on 08/31/2010

This is one story I know most of the libs just won't believe.

Bad news for Democrats: Ohio voters long for Bush

From PPP:

We’ll start rolling out our Ohio poll results tomorrow but there’s one finding on the poll that pretty much sums it up: by a 50-42 margin voters there say they’d rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.

Independents hold that view by a 44-37 margin and there are more Democrats who would take Bush back (11%) than there are Republicans who think Obama’s preferable (3%.)

A couple months ago I thought the Pennsylvanias and Missouris and Ohios of the world were the biggest battlegrounds for 2010 but when you see numbers like this it makes you think it’s probably actually the Californias and the Wisconsins and the Washingtons.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/bad-news-for-democrats-ohio-voters-long-for-bush-101901978.html#ixzz0yDVoeKSF

[ChasG]

04:57 PM on 08/31/2010

Washington Examiner? A bit biased I'd say. Not a credible polling outfit. Meaningless poll.

[goodspkr]

09:57 PM on 08/31/2010

Chas, you need to read a bit more carefully. It says from PPP. Public Policy Polling is a mainstream left wing polling operation. If there are questions of bias it generally is charged by conservatives. They basically have gone to robo polling like Rasmussen and it appears both are trending to the same results.

So do you still find it to be a meaningless poll?

[jerzygurl]

06:11 PM on 08/31/2010

By the time November rolls around Bush will have a higher approval rating in most of the country.

[kyeshinka]

04:21 PM on 08/31/2010

All this would be more interesting if it mattered. Our votes don't matter. It didn't matter when I voted for the winner in 2000 or 2004. It didn't matter when I voted for Obama because he turned out to be a black version of Bush. This midterm election is the most meaningless event in our recent history. Only a fool thinks that things will improve with a different congress. A gullible, trusting American fool. Congress doesn't make your life better. It won't bring back your job, balance the budget or listen to your complaints. Your congressman is there to take your money, make a name for himself and get a job on K street when he's defeated in 30 years and needs the extra cash for his daughter's rehab. Then he goes back to your districts twice a year, shake hands with the increasingly obese, fashion-challenged rubes who amazingly think he's doing a great job!?!
You're better off brushing up on your Berlitz Chinese audio disks on Election Day for all the good your civic duty will do you. At least you're gaining a marketable skill.

[sarabono]

03:21 PM on 08/31/2010

"It's the Economy, Stupid!"

To recycle a past used phrase.

[ChasG]

03:30 PM on 08/31/2010

"It's the Recession that started in 2007 under Bush, Stupid"

[aposey]

03:35 PM on 08/31/2010

Under a Democratic Congress, Stupid.

[salty0311]

06:18 PM on 08/31/2010

Started in Sept 2008 after Obama got the nomination,stupid.

[middleoftheroad]

05:25 PM on 08/31/2010

Yep, and instead, the fens pushed cap

[ChasG]

03:19 PM on 08/31/2010

I'm not worried about polls, especially this early in the election season. In September, 2008, McCain had a ten point lead over Obama among likely voters according to a Gallup poll.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/09/08/2008-09-08_john_mc­cain_rides­_rnc_bounc­e_to_lead_­in_.html

[goodspkr]

04:25 PM on 08/31/2010

The link didn't work.

[goodspkr]

09:58 PM on 08/31/2010

It still doesn't work

[ChasG]

12:44 PM on 09/01/2010

http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2008/09/07/new-gallup-poll-convention-lifts-mccain-over-obama-54-44-among-likely-voters/
I've had the same problem with other links posted here. Sometimes copy/paste works, sometimes not. If this link does not work, Google "Gallup Poll September 2008" and look down to "New Gallup Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama (54%-44% among ... "

[jerzygurl]

02:34 PM on 08/31/2010

There's so much bad news coming out for the Dems in regard to the upcoming election, I'm starting to feel a little bit sorry for them.

[noaxe397]

03:02 PM on 08/31/2010

Which will pale in comparison to the fear the GOP will begin feeling when the gavel in turned over to Speaker Boehner and then :just say no" will no longer suffice.

The public will have even a shorter fuse for cutting taxes and regulations, since that was the McCain/Palin platform in 2008 and they lost in a landslide.

[rh97]

03:25 PM on 08/31/2010

IT's about the economy..and debt reduction...and government doing the right thing and setting a good example. Let's see how that looks in a year when Obama's on vacation #6 and the Repbulican controlled Congress is still in session working through issues. I don't think they (Republicans) will be that stupid to go agianst the will of the people and act as hyprotical as Obama does. But I could be wrong....

[Wasp35]

08:19 PM on 08/31/2010

In the presidential election, Obama/Biden got 52.9 percent of the vote and McCain/Palin got 45.7 percent. That's only a seven point spread, but liberals have been calling it a "landslide" ever since. So, this November, every GOP victory with more than a seven point spread will be called a "landslide" and we don't want to hear any bellyaching from you lefties who defined the term, okay?

[Hassayamper]

05:52 AM on 09/02/2010

Not me. I want to smash them while they're down.

[KenClay]

01:25 PM on 08/31/2010

We Will Win and Conquer! This is Our Slogan as Democrats! VOTE!

[Jim281]

02:04 PM on 08/31/2010

FAVED

Let us simply COUNT THE WAYS the "W" administration indulged in greedy, incompetent, illegal, and destructive behavior. The look at the next wave of loonies the GOP has to offer.

Anyone with ANY SENSE will run to the polls to vote "D" all the way.

If the "W" administration, the reckless placement of incometant Palin on a notional ticket, the nominations of Sharron Angle, Carly Fiorina, and Rand Paul, and the re-nomination of David Vitter don't scare the HE// out of you, better check your pulse! You're probably deceased!

[dorzic]

04:51 PM on 08/31/2010

Some of us won't be voting D or R.

[salty0311]

06:19 PM on 08/31/2010

still not over W huh? You gotta man crush or something?

[Wasp35]

08:21 PM on 08/31/2010

No, your slogan is hopenchange. You guys did such a great job branding it in 2008 that now you're stuck with it, like it or not.

[lapinbrim]

01:16 PM on 08/31/2010

Why do HP moderators consistently filter out anything that speaks to progressives organizing rallies to show that people on the left can be just as vocal and visible in expressing our concern for this country?

[goodspkr]

01:41 PM on 08/31/2010

I think it is to keep from being embarassed.

Michael Mann of hockeystick fame had a group of protester come out to support him as a DA is seeking to subpoena documents. Two profs and three students showed up.

Al Sharpton organizes a counter rally to Beck's affair and get 1% of the crowd Beck gets.


The left tried to counter the Tea Party with the Coffee Party, I haven't heard anything about them lately.

The left needs W in office to get a real protest going.

[jerzygurl]

01:56 PM on 08/31/2010

ROFLMAO...F & F

[JimInHouston]

02:30 PM on 08/31/2010

The moderators are definitely over-active on this board. They've been rejecting my stuff which generally has content of the opposite slant.

[Ivyleaguequaker]

03:07 PM on 08/31/2010

If it's benign(follows HP rules), then report the deletion to the contact site below.

[ChasG]

03:24 PM on 08/31/2010

I'm curious; sincec moderates are in the center, what's the "opposite" of the center that you refer to?

[Chucky Sly]

01:08 PM on 08/31/2010

So..."Here are some poll results but really, we still don't know anything."
Smells like +r0// food to me.