New Washington Poll: Good News For Patty Murray?

Today's new Senate survey of interest comes from Washington, where the state's Elway Poll shows Democratic Senator Patty Murray leading Republican challenger Dino Rossi by a nine point margin (50% to 41%). The result is much better news for Murray than three other surveys conducted in late August and nudges Murray ahead of Rossi on our trend estimate by 3.7 percentage points (49.4% to 45.7%).

Does the new poll mean that Murray has gained ground in recent weeks, following a post August 17 primary "bump" for Rossi, (as our chart implies)? Not necessarily. What may be going on is a combination of timing and wide variation among pollsters that we have seen elsewhere this year: The most recent polls conducted using live interviewers show Murray doing better than those using an automated, recorded voice methodology.

Specifically, two automated polls conducted in late August by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports show Rossi leading by 7 and 3 points respectively, while live interview polls conducted by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and by Elway show Murray leading by 5 and 9 points.

Less obvious from the table is that the variation in the recent polling is far greater for challenger Rossi's support (a 9 point range varying between 41% and 52%) than incumbent Murray's (a 5 point range varying between 45% and 50%). That pattern is similar to what we saw in last year's New Jersey governor's race, where surveys showed much less variation in support for incumbent Jon Corzine than challenger Chris Cristie, but where Christie's number was consistently higher on automated surveys. In New Jersey, the automated polls were closer to the final result.

In this case, the new Elway poll puts far more voters in the "other" and undecided categories (9% total) than the recent automated surveys (3%). That's a typical pattern, and hints that a harder push of the undecided may work against a Democratic incumbent like Murray, at least for now.

We will have to wait and see whether these pollster "house effects" persist into October, although it is also possible that the two automated surveys late August were an anomaly. Automated surveys earlier in the summer by Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed Murray leading by a margin of 2 to 4 points that is more consistent with the 2.2 percentage point Murray margin we get (48.7% to 46.5%) when we use our chart's "smoothing" tool to pay less attention to recent variation and plot a smoother line.

Either way, the Murray-Rossi race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the nation, so we will be watching it closely.

And this just in: Just as I'm about to post this update, my email inbox tells me that Quinnipiac University has released a new poll on the Connecticut Senate race showing Democrat Richard Blumenthal (no relation) leading Republican Linda McMahon by just six points. That margin is slightly closer than other recent polls in Connecticut.

Comments

[Khirad]

05:55 PM on 09/15/2010

I understand liberal feelings against Murray. But by gawd. Dino Rossi? Why would you do that to Washington?

I know in Seattle or Bellingham it might not occur to you, but as a Clark County native for most my life, now living in Arizona, let me make this clear: there really IS such a thing as the lesser of two evils. You think you're unhappy with Murray?

I love my home state too much. No Rossi. Please.

[jmpurser]

10:54 AM on 09/15/2010

Murray's a useless corporatist Democrat while Rossi is a classic GOP nutcase. "Good News" for either of them signals more trouble for America.

[blueken]

09:35 AM on 09/15/2010

I see Linda McMahn as a natural for Washington politics. She comes from the WWE. She knows how to demonize her opponent and pretend to fight, all they while really just createing a show for the gullable public. In the end the opponents have a common cause, makeing money.

[outofstepper]

12:54 AM on 09/15/2010

" The most recent polls conducted using live interviewers show Murray doing better than those using an automated, recorded voice methodology."

How many times does it have to be said? Younger people tend to be Liberal. Younger people als tend to have only a cell phone. In Washington State you can't use automated calls to call cell phones. Ergo, with automated calls, you will tend to get older voters who also tend to be more conservative. As long as you are using an automated system, the results are going to be skewed towards the conservative side of things.

[granolagoddess]

12:01 AM on 09/15/2010

The stakes are high folks. If Dino Rossi wins, I will be out on the street. Please Check out My Blog about being a feminist and intellectual and living in poverty in Seattle. It will only get worse if human services are emliminated.

http://seattlefeministinpoverty.blogspot.com/

[cleanhippie]

10:27 PM on 09/14/2010

Did I mention that Dino Rossi is a douchenozzle?

[Khirad]

05:56 PM on 09/15/2010

That he is. And he's the best the Washington GOP can do, too.

[prodemlib]

06:59 PM on 09/14/2010

PATTY MURRAY - 2010!

[Biffmeister]

10:35 PM on 09/14/2010

Right on!

[playon]

06:28 PM on 09/14/2010

These polls are wack, they don't call cell phone numbers, and many people in WA don't have land lines, most of them younger voters who tend to vote democrat.

[RobinSeattle]

08:33 PM on 09/14/2010

The other thing is that Rasmuussen oversamples Republicans.

But it is also notable that the polling during the primary season has been pretty awful, so we'll have to see how things ultimately pan out.

There are a lot of Democrats (such as me) who don't like Murray, either, but Rossi is such an empty suit he actually makes someone who is considered one of the dumbest members of Congress look smart. He almost forces people to vote for the Democrat.

[BassMonk]

03:40 PM on 09/23/2010

He also lost to Gregoire, who is not very popular.

[llstudent]

06:11 PM on 09/14/2010

Oh isn't that special in Rossi's little online ad says he want to "preserve the Dream. Control the Spending", how cute!. This little man, Rossi is all for the elite wealthy and wants to preserve the dream of the elite wealthy who are f**ing us over as we speak. Bush and the repugs are why we have the economic situation we have now, but Rossi just wants to hurt the middle class more than it already is now. What a prince, the closer it gets to election day the more dems will wake up and will go to the polls to keep this weasel out of office. Go Patty, you can do it.

[Biffmeister]

10:39 PM on 09/14/2010

Rossi is a hardcore Bush repub and worse. Patty is for the working people. Washington is lucky to have her and so is the country.

[seattledemocrat]

05:55 PM on 09/14/2010

Hopefully this will be loud and clear to Three Time Loser Rossi, Washington State does not want you!

[llstudent]

06:13 PM on 09/14/2010

But I do fear they, Rossi will cheat and they will be out in force in Washington as poll watchers, so we have to watch their every move very closely. Lakewood liberal progressive!

[sharin]

12:08 AM on 09/15/2010

fortunately most of us don't go to polling places - I'm liking the mail in ballots!

[thebertmanlives]

06:27 PM on 09/14/2010

GOODBYE ROSSI. REMEMBER THE EVERETT MASSACRE
F&F

[sjcarl]

05:51 PM on 09/14/2010

Go Patty, go!

[eyeonamerica]

05:50 PM on 09/14/2010

Leading conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer has rebuked former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) for making the “irresponsible” choice of endorsing Christine O’Donnell over Rep. Mike Castle in the Delaware GOP Senate primary.

“The Palin endorsement, I think, is disruptive and capricious,” Krauthammer said Monday night on Fox News’ “Special Report.” “Bill Buckley had a rule that he always supported the most conservative candidate who was electable, otherwise the vote is simply self-indulgence.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42133.html#ixzz0zXiwVPbo

[sharin]

12:09 AM on 09/15/2010

wonder what rush will have to say about this

[JDShipley]

09:50 AM on 09/15/2010

Whatever he says he will jiggle when he says it.

[jashu51]

05:40 PM on 09/14/2010

Good for Patty! Dino Rossi can start a lounge act, he's already got the perfect moniker.

[Indie3000]

05:36 PM on 09/14/2010

What is really interesting are the other polls on pollster's website. It has Obama running negative on all major issues: Job approval, generic congressional ballot, Sate of the country, his job on health care and his job on the economy.

[sharin]

12:14 AM on 09/15/2010

you do realize that both clinton and reagan had even LOWER polling numbers in their second year september

[Indie3000]

04:23 AM on 09/15/2010

You do realize that GWB had even HIGHER polling numbers in his second year in september.

[gsell44]

05:30 PM on 09/14/2010

I've got a Patty Murray sign in my window. You go girl, Dino is a crook!

[llstudent]

06:14 PM on 09/14/2010

gsell44, Right on!