New York Races Narrowing, New Polls Show

Today's big polling news comes from New York, where two new surveys show much closer results in the races for Senate and Governor than indicated by previous polling, and from four new surveys by CNN and Time in statewide contests elsewhere. But the New York results are the most different from other recent polling and thus likely to get political tongues wagging today. Let's take a closer look.

The two newest polls on New York's Senate contest out this morning come from Quinnipiac University and automated pollster SurveyUSA. Quinnipiac finds Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand leading Republican challenger Joe DioGuardi by just six percentage points (48% to 42%). SurveyUSA shows an even narrower contest, with Gillibrand up by just one point (45% to 44%). Both results represent a sharp break from previous polls, which typically had Gillibrand leading by double-digit margins. Our standard trend estimate which still considers data from previous surveys, now shows Gillibrand ahead by just under eight percentage points (47.9% to 40.1%).

Both surveys also indicate a closer race for New York Governor than other polls taken previously. Quinnipiac has Democrat Andrew Cuomo leading Republican Carl Paladino by six points (49% to 43%), while Survey USA puts Cuomo ahead by nine (49% to 40%). Our trend lines show the race narrowing to a 49.0% to 37.8% Cuomo lead.

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UPDATE: Just after we published this story, the Siena Research Institute released a new survey showing very different results from those from Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA. Their survey of all registered voters shows Gillibrand leading DioGuardi by 26 points (57% to 31%), and Cuomo leading Paladino by 33 (57% to 24%). While a likely screen would have likely produced closer margins, the differences between the Siena, Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls are still enormous and not easily explained.

Our updated trend estimates now show Gillibrand leading by nearly ten points (47.7% to 38.1%) and Cuomo leading by 13.5 (53.2% to 39.7%).
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Why the change? The most important factor is probably last week's primary elections in New York, which resolved hard-fought Republican contests for both offices. Previously divided partisans often rally to their party's nominee following a tough primary -- remember the way Barack Obama received an almost immediate boost in polls from Democrats once his battle with Hillary Clinton came to an end in 2008. So some of the change may represent a consolidation of support among Republicans. For example, DioGuardi now receives the support of 88% of Republicans on the Quinnipiac survey and 74% of Republicans on SurveyUSA's poll.

Probably just as important, both polls also represent a shift to likely voter screens. Quinnipiac's previous New York surveys have been among all registered voters, and this poll is SurveyUSA's first in New York for the 2010 cycle. Only Rasmussen had previously applied any sort of likely voter screen to the New York results -- and they also showed both races closer than other pollsters, though not quite as close as these two new surveys.

Also, while the pattern is not consistent, Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA have produced results in recent weeks that are much more favorable to Republicans than likely voter surveys by other pollsters -- in the races for Senate in Ohio and Governor in Pennsylvania for Quinnipiac, and for Senate in North Carolina for SurveyUSA. Nate Silver notes a similar pattern for SurveyUSA in House races.

The impact of likely voter screening on poll results, especially this year, is evident in the four new polls released yesterday by CNN and Time, and in three more they released last week. While their new results largely confirm what we have seen from other recent surveys, CNN and Time are somewhat unique in that they release results for both likely voters and their larger samples of all registered voters. As the table below shows, the difference on the Democrat-minus-Republican margin is often quite large -- as much as 8 or 9 percentage points in Wisconsin, Delaware, Colorado and Ohio.

It is important to remember that few likely voter screens are created equal, as different pollsters often use very different methods to model or screen for what they all describe as "likely voters." And worse, only a handful of pollsters disclose the details of their process. This is an aspect of this year's polling that we will continue to watch closely.

Comments

[MrUniteUs]

12:28 PM on 09/27/2010

Pollsters can greatly sway poll results deciding who likely voters are.
I think pollsters that release like likely voter results should also release straight poll results.

Personally I believe Democratic turn will be surprisingly high.

[marilyn 63]

02:44 AM on 09/27/2010

i tell you what these freaking polls are sounding suspicious!!!!. are they real or what!!! maybe stop polling, let people go to the polls!! and vote that's what you count!!

[olivia]

07:43 PM on 09/28/2010

I think they are suspect. And nothing was ever done about Diebold.

[kenhamlett]

03:50 PM on 09/24/2010

Today's poll of likely voters in the Gillibrand/DioGuardi race shows Senator Gillibrand with a one-point lead, and it shows her far below 50%. Political analysts say that incumbents who cannot poll at the 50% level are in serious trouble. As a Democrat, who plans to vote for Senator Gillibrand, despite my resentment of how her candidacy was forced us on us by Senator Schumer, President Obama and the National Democratic Party (my own Congresswoman would have made a far better and stronger candidate), I believe she will lose -- costing the party what otherwise would have been a sure win. What a shame!

[Philosopher-king]

02:50 PM on 09/24/2010

The democrats are boring, that is the problem.

[marilyn 63]

02:46 AM on 09/27/2010

maybe if they were insane like the tea-republicans every one would notice them!!!

[KingGeorgetheTurd]

09:34 PM on 09/29/2010

Hye, Jerry Springer was a top rating draw, just like Fox

[Annintexas]

10:04 AM on 09/24/2010

Who knows? The Sienna poll is so incredibly different, it has now skewed the results.

[PassingBy]

02:12 AM on 09/24/2010

Polls are not reliable.
Ads are not believable.
Speeches are not indicative of candidates true position.

So, it will be, what it will be, and the People will suffer through, as we always do.

[GayIthacan]

10:13 PM on 09/23/2010

HOW ABOUT DROPPING ALL THE GOBBLEDYGOOK AND TELLING THE TRUTH - THAT POLLSTERS WILL DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO MANIPULATE THEIR DATA TO SHOW HORSERACES WEHERE NONE EXIST - TO BOTH GOOSE UP THEIR OWN PUBLICITY AND TO HELP THE MEDIA MAINTAIN AUDIENCES FOR THE POLITICAL BABBLE (AND THEREFORE MORE SPONSOR CONTENTMENT WITH AUDIENCE NUMBERS.)

AFTER ALL - WHO IS GOING TO TUNE IN WHEN THE FINAL RESULT IS KNOWN MONTHS BEFOREHAND - AND THERE IS NOTHING TO TALK ABOUT?

[Chris1962]

11:09 PM on 09/23/2010

>>>HOW ABOUT DROPPING ALL THE GOBBLEDYGOOK AND TELLING THE TRUTH - THAT POLLSTERS WILL DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO MANIPULATE THEIR DATA TO SHOW HORSERACES WEHERE NONE EXIST>>>

Isn't this precisely what all the liberals were saying when Rasmussen first broke the news that Scott Brown was closing up the Massachusetts race? How come liberals never learn? Do you remember, right after Brown won the election, and the Left was trying to convince themselves that Coakley was just a bad candidate? Orin Hatch said something that maybe you guys should have paid attention to: "If they can replace the so-called Kennedy seat with a Republican, than my gosh, you'd better wake up."

 

[GayIthacan]

03:38 PM on 09/24/2010

Actually, Coakley was a bad candidate. In fact, possibly the worst Democratic candidate for national office in quite some time.

But - as I said - when pollsters manipulate their results and exclude candidates already on the ballot and somehow come up with races that are either 33 points or 6 points apart - SOMEBODY is manipulating data for their own ends.

And, of course, Nate Silver did an excellent analysis last year concerning Rassmussen - and their tendency to put out polls completely at odds with the other groups - right up until the final week of the cycle - when 'magically' their numbers return to the pack average.

[marilyn 63]

02:50 AM on 09/27/2010

and that's why Brown darn well taking Kennedy's seat has to toe the democratic line most of the time he' crossed voted with the democrats on key things for Massachusetts he no's what time it is.

[SoDoSomething]

08:56 PM on 09/23/2010

Just more of the attempt to suppress Democratic voter turnout. Convince them all is lost and they might as well stay home. Sadly it will probably work.

[rhodapenmark]

09:39 AM on 09/24/2010

A one-point spread would encourage voter turnout, not suppress it.

[marilyn 63]

02:51 AM on 09/27/2010

yeah hello!!!

[JazzyJim]

08:27 PM on 09/23/2010

Yeah, the Koch Bros and the Republicans have learned how to "Jack the box" - create false positives, i.e., "most Americans" while ignoring the fact that "most Americans" do not vote Republican - they vote not to be slaughtered, but as they do with all of their Frank Luntz inspired "word talk" they lie about everything and leave anyone dumb enough to believe them with a false and untrue impression. That's how brainwashing and propaganda works - that's why the are the Propaganda Arm of the Republican Party and inherent liars incapable of telling the truth as they sell you religion and patriotism with a big dose of Bullsh*t.

[Mattoon]

10:10 AM on 09/29/2010

Anyone who takes a look at a poll and makes a decision based upon it deserves what they get.

[CommodoreP]

08:17 PM on 09/23/2010

You know, Harry Reid is right. Gillibrand does look pretty good! If its a good enough reason to vote for a Sarah Palin or a Christine O'Donnell it should be good enough for her! :)

[lafayette2009]

07:11 PM on 09/23/2010

Are these the same pollsters who had McCain neck and neck with Obama going into the 2008 elections?

[Tyrione]

08:14 PM on 09/23/2010

Yes.

[KingGeorgetheTurd]

09:42 PM on 09/29/2010

Raz actually was the only one, but when the media didnt jump on it, he pulled it. Then the last two weeks up to the election, he edged his numbers back in line with the rest of the polling averages. Just so he could claim, on election day, he was just as accurate as everyone else.

even polling analyzers use what they call the Rasmussen "house effect" by reducing republicans by 3-4%

[Chucktheman]

05:18 PM on 09/23/2010

Carl Paladino is a poor example for kids his perverse emails and bestialtiy movies have made a laughing stock of the people who voted for him. Birds of a feather. I wouldnt want him to babysit, and wouldnt want anyone that voted for him around kids.

[rhodapenmark]

06:49 PM on 09/23/2010

Paladino should be listed on one of those registries.

[RABSR]

07:29 PM on 09/23/2010

Yo rhodapenmark.....

“You don't enjoy an "honest debate" at all. You enjoy dropping trou and taking dumps on women using words like "lightweight" and "confuse." Gillibrand has plenty of intellectual cred -- what about you?

Government regulated and even government sponsored healthcare have worked just fine in other countries. They are badly needed here, where the quality of care deteriorates by the day. “

Uh…… nope.

First of all my opinion of this Senator has nothing to do with gender.

Secondly, government run health care has never reached the level of care we have experienced in this country anywhere in the world.

You also seem to forget we are a country of over 300 million people. No other country with socialized medicine, with the exception of communist or totalitarian regimes, is remotely close to the size and scope as ours.

European counties are currently limiting or curtailing their wonderful health care systems because they are unaffordable.

In terms of your wish that I might leave this country, don’t hold your breath.

Our lineage in this country predates the Revolution for Independence. It includes many hard working immigrants, legal I might add, that built this country.

Those who wish to change it are the ones who might well consider a move.

Regardless of the insults and animosity, I have still enjoyed our dialogue

[marilyn 63]

02:52 AM on 09/27/2010

is he??

[rgilley]

05:13 PM on 09/23/2010

It's getting closer to November so people are taking a serious look at these teabagger Republicans. Hopefully voters will look very close at these people who want to kill soc sec and medicare while giving 4 trillion dollar tax break to the top 2%ers who are their masters.
Throw these obstructionist bums out in 2010 and save whats left of the middle class!!

[RABSR]

07:32 PM on 09/23/2010

Your numbers are wrong and your ideology has been shown to be suicidal.

[Tyrione]

08:17 PM on 09/23/2010

His numbers are actually correct. The difference is that the tax cut for the rest of us would be an additional $3.3 Trillion--$700 billion less than the GOP tax cuts for all of us.

In reality. The tax cuts for the middle class that the President wants should be for a decade [to be fair] and then ended here on out.

Tax revenues need to increase to pay off past debt. You don't get it by shrinking the current government and reducing taxes. You end up with a reduced tax revenue and thus no way in hell of paying off the past.

[JazzyJim]

08:29 PM on 09/23/2010

Hmmm. Wonder what that stench of 8 years of Republican Tyranny is then. Life support?

[rhodapenmark]

10:18 PM on 09/23/2010

Being a teabag Republican should be a capital crime, because these greedy oinkers clearly want to disassemble American society. Paladino has actually suggested putting the poor in concentration camps. It doesn't get more vile than that.

Culling Republicans would be a good use of our "Second-Amendment Rights." Or, perhaps it could be organized as a sport -- we could chase them around an arena in brightly-painted SUVs.

[rgilley]

08:00 AM on 09/24/2010

Spoken like a true teabagger republican!

[marilyn 63]

02:53 AM on 09/27/2010

and totally racist to boot!!

[softvoice]

05:04 PM on 09/23/2010

Have mercy on us if the Republicans are actually able to regain the majority. They intend to shut down the Government and keep it that way until the Presidential election in 2012. They DO NOT care about what that will do to so many desperate Americans. People are saying they don't intend to vote because they are mad at Democrats for not doing more but they don't seem to understand that NOTHING will be done to ease their pain or to help them through a difficult time if enough of them sit on their votes and allow Republicans to become the majority. The Republicans have ignored the fact that we have been in a devastating recession and they will continue to do so if they are in charge.

[Chucktheman]

05:02 PM on 09/23/2010

Paladino has Children in NYS asking parents what bestilality means? and What is porn?  As a parent and grandparent, I dont know what responsible adult would vote for that man. He has brougt shame to the people of NYS and as I look at the lawn signs for Paladino, it make me wonder about the people in my community. I look at them all as if they were the ones who emailed porn, and as sick people I would not want children to be around. Most people would get fired from their jobs for doing what Carl Paladino has done. Most of his supporters claim to be tax paying, church going folks. The man is a leach on the tax payers money too. He will bring lawsuits and shame to NY and has already hurt the reputation of the citizens of NY with his off the wall comments and deviant behavior. Who would vote for a deviant? Birds of a feather. Shame on those who voted for him in the primary election. You all knew of the perversions and amimal sex movies he emailed and voted for him anyway. You knew he is a bigot by the emails he sent.
You should have been able to see that his interest in NY and tax breaks for the wealthy work to his advantage for personal gain. Your votes for Paladion weaken the moral fiber of the state and its citizens. YOour promoting his campain Shows a lack of moral compass. It sets a bad example for our children. Please retink your vote. If you have kids and don't think it appropriate to have to answer questions about the things Paladino has done, do the right thing and dont force your neighbors into explaining either.
The next time Carl says " Im just a regular guy" don't believe it. He makes all men look like perverts that don't respect women, and the last time he said it he was giving a speach at the Yacht Club. Kids don't need to ask what cohones means either. Please give it some thought. I have faith in my fellow NYers and hope they  voted to send a message, and not to put him in office in November.

[RABSR]

07:42 PM on 09/23/2010

"Paladino has Children in NYS asking parents what bestilality means? and What is porn?"

I sincerely doubt any "children" are following this election in any way that they might ask these questions.

Further, it isn't Mr. Paladino who has brought these private, and intended to be humorous, communications to anyones attention, it is his detractors (spelled d e m o c r a t s) .

Politics is an ugly thing. NYS politics is off the charts.

With a choice between another Cuomo, political royalty, and an accomplished business person who can read a balance sheet.... I'm in for Paladino.

[CommodoreP]

08:21 PM on 09/23/2010

Hey O! O ey! Yeah, I mean who cares if he likes to watch women have sex with horses and is a racist. Fuggedaboutit!

COME ON man. This guy has the morals of a baked potato and his intelligence doesn't seem to be a whole lot better. That is where New York is? Maybe my stereotyping above is the truth.

[Chris1962]

11:18 PM on 09/23/2010

I'm for Paladino, too.