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IMF Chief Warns Against 'Currency Wars'

MARTIN CRUTSINGER   10/ 8/10 08:24 PM ET   AP

Imf Financial Crisis

WASHINGTON — The head of the International Monetary Fund on Friday urged global finance ministers to stop trying to manipulate their currencies for economic advantage and instead to join to save a fragile recovery.

The global economy is struggling to emerge from the worst recession since the end of World War II, said IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Unless the pace of job growth quickens, he said, "we really face the risk of a lost generation" of young people unable to get work.

Strauss-Kahn's remarks came as finance ministers from around the world gathered for the annual meetings of the 187-nation IMF and its sister lending organization, the World Bank.

"We are gathering at a pivotal moment facing a very uncertain future," Strauss-Kahn told the delegates.

"Growth is coming back but we all know that it is fragile and uneven," he said.

Strauss-Kahn said he saw a particular threat to the recovery from a breakdown in cooperation among nations, emphasized by growing talk of currency wars.

In recent days, the Obama administration has increased pressure on China to allow its currency to rise in value against the dollar as a way to boost U.S. exports.

Various other nations, including Japan, Brazil and South Korea, also have taken steps to keep their currencies weaker in an effort to increase their exports.

In comments on Friday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said that progress in combatting the global recession was being put in jeopardy by China's resistance to a faster appreciation of the yuan.

"Our initial achievements are at risk of being undermined" by countries that are relying on exports for growth instead of building up their domestic demand, Geithner said.

Canadian Finance Minister James Flaherty told reporters that the global economy would be the loser if nations followed "beggar-thy-neighbor" currency policies where one country tries to get an advantage over another by lowering its currency, making its exports cheaper.

The consequences of such actions "are bad for a world economic recovery that is fragile," Flaherty said Friday night before a dinner of finance officials from the Group of Seven wealthy industrial countries.

Geithner called on the IMF to play a greater role in monitoring economic actions in its member countries, saying such surveillance could be critical in preventing the next crisis.

But Chinese officials continued to insist that their efforts to revalue their currency gradually was the best approach.

"China will move the exchange rate gradually," Zhou Xiaochuan, head of China's central bank, said during a panel discussion Friday sponsored by the BBC. "We will do it in a gradual way rather than shock therapy."

China in June announced that it would introduce more flexibility into its currency system but since that time the yuan has risen in value by only 2 percent against the dollar when American manufacturers contend the yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 percent.

China's gradual pace prompted the U.S. House to vote last month for legislation that would give the administration the power to impose stiff trade sanctions on countries found to be manipulating their currency to gain trade advantages.

The measure faces an uncertain fate in the Senate but Democrats wanted a House vote before November elections where the weak economy and high unemployment are expected to be uppermost in voters' minds. The government reported Friday that the U.S. unemployment rate remained stuck at 9.6 percent in September.

Strauss-Kahn said without greater cooperation the global economy will continue to struggle and job creation will remain weak. He noted that since the recession began in 2007, more than 30 million jobs have been lost around the world.

Strauss-Kahn spoke as the IMF and World Bank began two days of talks in Washington. Besides those meetings, the finance ministers from the Group of 20 major economies also met. This group includes traditional economic powers such as the United States, Germany and Japan, joined by major emerging countries including China, India and Brazil.

In a statement to the annual meetings, Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that the economic slowdown that hit many nations beginning late last spring had dampened optimism about the recovery.

"The impact of the crisis is going to last for decades," said Mukherjee. "It is a great cause for concern that an additional 64 million people have been pushed into poverty."

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WASHINGTON — The head of the International Monetary Fund on Friday urged global finance ministers to stop trying to manipulate their currencies for economic advantage and instead to join to save...
WASHINGTON — The head of the International Monetary Fund on Friday urged global finance ministers to stop trying to manipulate their currencies for economic advantage and instead to join to save...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
07:33 AM on 10/11/2010
All this rhetoric about devaluing currency...."Its all by DESIGN" I understand,we the people, owe Fed 4 TRILLION, these are same people that dominate our Govt. and Corporations....excerpt: . The fed was created by its owners to bring them staggering profits, to control nation politically, economically and financially. The owner’s goal has always been to implement world government and Fed’s control was designed to bring that about.

True political control of both major parties began in 1930s and had General Smedly Butler not exposed what this cabal was up too, .with purchase of most politicians in house and Senate. The difference between both parties became almost indistinguishable, as flow of money grew greater and greater. It’s bad now that lawmakers do not read bills they vote for or against. .” The Fed runs the government; the monetary and fiscal policies and economy make no mistake about it. Yes, they control policy in every branch of government. In this process they have neutered Constitution and Bill of Rights, and make no bones about it. separation of powers no longer exists; at least for now they control everything. The Fed owners, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and other domestic players, as well as foreign owners, dictate what happens. The idea is continually strengthen corporate control over government and to make sure of direction of corporate elitists’ government becomes more powerful in hands of these monopolists
....http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21027”””
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Kevin Atlanta
Active Citizen 54
06:36 PM on 10/10/2010
It's all Kabuki and fear-mongering from the Oligarchy who see and know they are exposed to the absolute unbridled revolt of populations that outnumber them 99 to 1.

These international criminals are the foundation of the collapse and if the global economy tanks again it will be because of these international criminals manipulations.

The IMF, the World Bank are the real enemies of Democracy.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
KarlaElisa
The atmosphere is Toxic
01:49 PM on 10/10/2010
Jeez..the picture of the man has him looking like he maybe ate a bad oyster. I sure hope so.
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05:31 PM on 10/10/2010
with our deficit spending and the Fed monetizing it is so dangerous. there is no choice be a currency war and the US will loose.
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KarlaElisa
The atmosphere is Toxic
05:41 PM on 10/10/2010
Gonna be interesting watching Americans lose everything with so many having truly useless skills when it comes to survival.
11:57 AM on 10/10/2010
Down with the IMF!
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Raccoon1
These are the times that try men's souls........
04:00 PM on 10/10/2010
And the World Bank with it.
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KarlaElisa
The atmosphere is Toxic
05:39 PM on 10/10/2010
Here, Here...this could not happen fast enough to please me.
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valeskas
catlover/book lover democrat
08:40 AM on 10/10/2010
Used to be nice to go to Germany on vacation when the $ was 3 to 1, now its 1 Euro you have to pay almost a $ 1.40 again. If the $ is low, we pay more for gas at the pump.
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08:32 AM on 10/10/2010
If any one cares Thailand is forcing its currency to be stronger against the dollar for some reason. Who knows why
12:25 AM on 10/10/2010
"...urged global finance ministers to stop trying to manipulate their currencies for economic advantage"

So, ALL INDUSTRIALIZED ARE MANIPULATING THEIR CURRENCY's EXCHANGE RATE!!!

And I always thought that "capital market forces" are the ones determining the exchange rates. It looks like China is not the only one "manipulating" its currency's exchange rate.
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AlexABC
12:40 AM on 10/10/2010
Like I have said before, there is no moral victor in this struggle. The trade surplus nations (China, Germany, Japan) are as guilty of channeling so much national income into cheap, subsidized exports exports, as the trade deficit nations (US, Ireland, UK, et al) are of insatiably buying it all up.

But that tit-for-tat is changing: demand is dwindling as the West saves more and as China et al stick to their low-consumption guns, in order to corner their own shares of dissipating global demand. China, Japan, and Germany all have to run huge surpluses right now since they are currently at the absolute peak of their demographic windows: soon they will be faced with aging, declining population. This will necessitate future deficit spending. By contrast, the US (and India) runs an enormous deficit in part because it is demographically robust and not currently inclined enough to pursue surpluses.

These contrasting dynamics allow all countries involved to pursue their rational interests (i.e., account surpluses/savings on one side and deficits/consumption on the other). The scale, however, has gotten completely out of hand, what with China consuming far below its demographic-economic weight while producing at a level perhaps unseen in history, and the US simultaneously consuming at an equally exaggerated level.

Amidst all of this turmoil, China is the easiest target since it has previously been so forthright about its currency peg. It has possesses such huge (and currently, wasted) potential as a consumer.
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11:35 PM on 10/09/2010
tic toc tic toc ..... greed will prevail -
09:46 PM on 10/09/2010
My currency can beat your currency up!

*youtube Comedian White Shoes
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Abraxas79
09:41 PM on 10/09/2010
China is not going to allow their currency to appreciate. Why would they ?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
detailz1
10:30 PM on 10/09/2010
My thoughts exactly. What are we going to say, we'll just stop buying everything that is made there cheaply?!! That won't happen. There is no shock and awe that would be effective since China also has a modern military...What can you threaten them with????

Stupid!
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AlexABC
12:03 AM on 10/10/2010
The irony is that what America is suggesting for China (i.e., currency revaluation to reflect China's actual economic/demographic weight) would make China more powerful and more competitive with America than it is currently. If, however, China maintains its weak monetary policy, it sows several unsavory seeds not terribly conducive to either sustainability or stability:

1) Declining consumption relative to GDP: while absolute consumption may increase, it will decline relative to growth in Chinese investment and exports. A healthy major economy typically consists of 65% consumption; China's current 35% is a low number nearly without precedent.

2) Income inequality. Chinese households have their incomes transferred to "national champion" industries who are effectively subsidized by the cheap RMB. China has the second largest GDP on earth (and will perhaps get to 1st if it can restructure appropriately), but the average Chinese is very poor. So much wealth is concentrated at the top of the social strata: China's billionaires have assets equal to nearly a quarter or more of overall GDP already.

--

China's military is formidable, but it faces the obstacle of unfavorable geography, being fenced in by India, Russia, and Japan, to say nothing of the American presence in the Pacific. It has closed the gap on its rivals, certainly, but I think we'll see renewed global focus on counterbalancing the PLA as the US's decade-long fascination with Al Qaeda wanes.
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hypnotoad72
Real democracy = living wages.
08:52 AM on 10/10/2010
I'm sure there are... tacticians looking at possibilities and outcomes...
12:26 AM on 10/10/2010
Why would they, indeed. The other industrialized countries are also doing their own local currency manipulation!!!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Philosopher-king
1100001100 110011 011001
09:31 PM on 10/09/2010
The IMF encouraged this behavior long ago and now they are trying to backpedal. Typical considering the international economy was fragile to begin with. If only they would have considered a long turn goal before the consolidated the Euro. Or instead of trying to gorge the middle class worker to make themselves richer, they could have enhanced the capitalist system by making it easier for individuals to rise to the top 1% in order to create a wealth cycle. Instead we have a never ending cycle of poverty that is about the engulf the middle class worldwide. Shameful economics.
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land2341
08:43 PM on 10/09/2010
One day americans will wake up and look at their little green pieces of paper and realize just what their value is. At the moment it is in the delusion that there is safety, so deluded we had all best remain.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
06:59 PM on 10/09/2010
The only currency war there is the USA who got themselves in a heap of a mess and now wants
to pressure the Chinese. How many times did I read the end of the Euro, well the Dollar is .719 for 1 Euro. Does not sound like they have a problem to me. Let our geniuses fix their mess but then again what do we base the worth of the dollar on?
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AlexABC
07:17 PM on 10/09/2010
I do not think it makes sense to blame any single nation here. This is a complex conflict that reveals the structural weaknesses of the global economy.

1. Yes, the US spends a tremendous amount. It consumes more than any other nation and is one of the only mechanisms that allows China, Germany, and Japan to thrust their gigantic trade surpluses on the rest of the world. China, especially, uses weak monetary policy to transfer income from households to exporters/industry, thereby reducing its own ability to consume and transferring its surplus to the US consumer. The US may indeed spend and consume too much, but it does so in part because those other three nations produce too much. There is no moral victor here, despite how everyone treats account surpluses as something to be admired and account deficits as something to be scorned, when in fact the two are reciprocals between the world's great powers. The US finances China's account balance as much as China "finances" the US via debt purchases.

2. The Euro is a paper tiger. Countries like Spain and Ireland, especially, face grave financial crises that could be much better alleviated by leaving the euro and returning to individual currencies. Even Germany, the center of gravity in the EU, is lukewarm at best on the future of the common currency, with well over half of Germans supporting a return to the deutschmark. Europe has major problems going forward. I think we'll see much less European solidarity.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
01:37 PM on 10/10/2010
I agree with most of it, good assessment, but do NOT underestimate the power of the USA and the CIA who spends billions in other countries to influence elections. How do you think Sarkozy and Merkel got into power. Karzai was a car dealer in Houston, etc.
Their is one bully. Without Goldman Sachs Iceland and Greece would not have been in the situation they are in. And I know Germany is picking up a lot of practices in employment field as we have here. Remember when Germany tired to do away with the derivatives and Geithner had the nerve to threaten Merkel, remember, was right here in this paper.
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AlexABC
04:48 PM on 10/09/2010
I don't think this would be such a bad thing, really.

1. China would likely have to revalue the RMB. This would give its households more power; currently, they are being robbed of their fair share of the national income, much of which is going to industry de facto subsidized by weak monetary policy.

2. The U.S. perhaps could dilute the dollar so much that it would no longer be the end-all be-all of reserve currencies. This would be an amazing step forward for the U.S. in terms of getting a grip on its finances: the dollar-as-reserve-currency is more a burden than an asset, as it allows for rampant deficits and overly easy borrowing.

3. The euro, always a flawed idea, might become no more. Countries such as Greece, Spain, and Ireland could more easily work their ways out of their debt crises by having control over a sovereign currency, rather than relying on the Franco-German powers that be in the EU.

The fret over currency wars reminds me of how everyone used to say that the major U.S. deficits after the financial crisis would lead to hyperinflation, which didn't happen.

Of course, the "benefits" I listed above come with a unique set of risks, such as political instability in China, or reinvigorated nationalism in post-Euro Europe. I think the US has the least to lose (how can it lose anymore, after all?) and could tend to overreact, too.
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land2341
08:42 PM on 10/09/2010
I like the way you think, and I see you have got a pretty good grip on this issue. My concern here in the US is that the instability could be worse than people seem to realize. We are politically unstable right now and many people no longer trust their government. When Roosevelt shook everything up and devalued things and took over industries (now THAT was socialism) people trusted him and trusted the government. Now we don't trust business and we don't trust government and we DO trust Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell?? I think over-reaction is a real possibility.
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AlexABC
11:32 PM on 10/09/2010
The political danger in the US is as you say: radicalism, mainly from rightists who stoke the triple fires of protectionism, aggressive defense spending, and anti-immigration policy. These tacks lead to a more closed America that is perhaps more adept at production/manufacturing, but weakened overall as a fair international arbiter and a consumer.

However, even with the rise of the Tea Party, I have trouble foreseeing a true political crisis in the US unless the military were involved; this would be without precedent in American history, and at odds with how the military typically functions in relation to government (whether they approve of that government politically or not). That's not to say it couldn't happen, as there is a first time for everything. But the US military really lacks motive in this regard.

In China, however, the potential for political crisis is more likely than it may seem to the casual (or, in some cases, "expert") Western observer. The PLA (which is not a national military but rather an arm of the CCP) has gained an increased role in governance and is likely behind China's recent flirtations with gunboat diplomacy in regard to Japan and ASEAN. The PLA has certainly taken matters into its own hands before, such as in 1989. Point being: China has a complex history of civilian-military tension in regard to its government. One spat of economic turmoil and we could find out just how fragile the CCP's state is.
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guveqzero
Inventor and Innovator
03:12 PM on 10/09/2010
What a joke! The IMF is an obsolete organization. Only weak countries are ever influenced by the IMF.
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KarlaElisa
The atmosphere is Toxic
04:13 PM on 10/10/2010
the IMF is a very powerful organization and nowhere NEAR death. watch what they are doing and about to do to key states in Europe.