NY-Sen: 50% Gillibrand (D), 25% DioGuardi (R) (NYTimes 10/10-15)

New York Times
10/10-15/10; 943 registered voters
Mode: Live telephone interviews
New York Times release

New York

2010 Senate (A) (chart)
Registered voters: 61% Schumer (D), 19% Townsend (R)
Likely voters: 61% Schumer (D), 21% Townsend (R)

2010 Senate (B) (chart)
Registered voters: 50% Gillibrand (D), 225 DioGuardi (R)
Likely voters: 50% Gillibrand (D), 25% DioGuardi (R)

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Comments

[TJampel]

10:04 PM on 10/19/2010

NY is somewhat unique in that either a Dem or a Repub could theoretically win this race and could een win it big, I think. And that could happen in a big Dem year or Repub year. After all we elected Bill Buckley, a conservative Repub, and Pataki was dominant.

We value personality, intelligence, and the ability to generate interest and excitement. Gillebrand was a very slow starter when appointed last year. In the intervening time she's slowly built up her favorables and has been a pretty steady and hardworking legislator. She moves just slightly leftwards after being appointed but is still known as a 2nd amendment proponent and held in relatively high esteem upstate, where most NYC folks are resented.

On the other hand the Republicans didn't have a 1st tier candidate. DioGuardi has done absolutely nothing to generate interest or excitement. He's acted like a 2nd tier guy, and that's really cost him here where we value and demand winners. Being a fresh face and given the Republican advantage this year he was able to start off fairly close to Gillibrand; in the end his mediocrity did him in as his craziness did in Paladino.

So, a Giuliani might have actually won despite this lopsided result because he's perceived as strong and dynamic.

[Louis Hirsch]

02:09 PM on 10/19/2010

Sayy goodnight Gracie.