The Real Story Of The Midterm Elections: Underemployment

By this time tomorrow, the mediasphere will be awash in touts and strategists discussing why tonight's midterm vote went down the way it did, and What It Means for the establishment political parties. You'll hear a lot of mythmaking driven by winners who want to gloat, losers who want to deflect blame and promote pleasant-sounding spin, and pundits who are forever locked in a game of one-upsmanship to determine who can craft the most byzantine-sounding pointless mystification of the political process they can -- all for the hope of heaping glory on themselves.

But in one graph, here's why what is going to happen is going to happen.

What you are looking at is the U6 unemployment rate. The U6 aggregates the following groups of long-suffering Americans in one trend line: the official "unemployed," "discouraged" workers who have stopped seeking employment because they believe none is available, workers who are considered to be "marginally" or "loosely attached" who'd very much prefer to work but haven't had any recent luck, and underemployed workers -- those who have found part-time work but would, under optimal circumstances, be ready and willing to work full-time.

As it stands, the U6 rate is up in the vicinity of 17%. That means about one in six Americans find themselves in this category. That also means that the vast majority of people who are fortunate enough to not be part of U6 unemployment likely know someone very dear to them -- a spouse, a sibling, a parent, a son or daughter, or a close friend or loved one -- who is experiencing the worst of this economy.

In this environment, it's really difficult for Americans to have any real fix on an optimistic future. It's hard for many to plan for that next vacation, the next new car, the next year of paying for your kid's college tuition, the next big purchase or repair for that refrigerator that seems close to keeling over. For some, the "future," such as it is, recedes to a matter of weeks or even days. The next rent payment. The next meal.

So, it's tough to be passing laws -- even effective ones -- whose main selling point is benefits that will kick in around 2014, or will drive down long-term structural deficits over the next ten years. It's hard to feel good about jobs that were created or saved -- and there were many! -- when you aren't the beneficiary of such a boon or your rescue is offset by a loved one who is still in need. It's hard to be told that growth is occluded by a set of lagging indicators, when the lagging indicator is you.

It's a tough row to hoe. Go ahead and call it illogical. Go ahead and call it unfair. The voters don't disagree, necessarily -- most continue to blame the previous administration for today's woes and most continue to prefer Democrats to Republicans. It's just much easier, and more succinct, to be warning of doom right now than it is to be assuaging fears.

And that's why today's election is going to go the way it's going to go.

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Comments

[DavidFarrar]

05:36 PM on 11/04/2010

This December will be a stark month for over 15 million people facing a cut-off of all their
federal EUC and EB unemployment benefits. This includes all tiers: I,II,II,IV & V participants.

These unemployment benefits will remain cut off until Congress reauthorizes them. Therefore it becomes imparitive for those affected by this action to quickly address their own members
of Congress and ask them to reauthroize all EUC and EB unemployment benefits during the
lame duck session.

To quickly find your Congressional District, Congressional representatives and their contact
information, please go to my new interactive Congressional map site: at
http://nolp.blogspot.com/ The Unemployed Voice. It's free. But please, please pass this
message on.

One more thing, with unemployment levels as high as they presently are today and projected
to continue at least until 2012, we can no longer assume unemployed people are misfits who refuse to work or can't find jobs for themselves. We must realize this is a unique situation that requires emergency, out-of-the-party-box solutions. Unless the U.S. Congress acts, millions of Americans and their families will become wards of the state, especially the elderly poor,
those out of work between the ages of 55 and 63.


ex animo
davidfarrar

[TybeeBoBo]

01:44 PM on 11/03/2010

An unemployment check is no substitute for a job. I am just another over 50 professional, college educated person that can’t even get a job interview must less a job. Everyone in my extended family is having a hard time making ends meet. They work in the construction industry or the restaurant industry which are suffering and there is no work for anyone. We all have downsized our lives. The only thing keeping us going is my weekly unemployment check. Without this we will truly be homeless. I look at the grandkids and think “this will be the first Christmas that they will be old enough to know what Christmas is really about”, with my unemployment checks ending at the end of November 2010, I fear they will face a very meek unfulfilled Christmas. What a great first impression of Christmas they will get. I am sure there will be food on the table and a few meager presents under the tree for the kids and grandkids, but the real gift will be learning that they are now part of a very fast growing sector of our county, the poor people. They will see their friends, whose parents have money and jobs, and know that their Christmas was significantly different. What really hurts the most is that my babies will become second class citizens that Congress and the President do not care about anymore. What an awful reality and a miserable existence to give them for the Holidays.

[Shelly Santiago]

03:08 PM on 11/03/2010

Well, keep the faith. I've been looking and looking. I called someone that interviewed me last week, and asked about the job I interviewed for. He still hasn't picked anyone, so I might be hired. If he doesn't pick me, I will just continue to look. I have three children and my husband works as a temp. He spent 14 yrs in the Army, but the job market is hard right now. We just pray, and pray. Just know that things can't always be this bad.

[Gudrun]

02:37 PM on 11/04/2010

Kids want the love and involvement of their families, not a bunch of presents at Xmas. I understand your wanting to provide them, but you have more important things to think about now, and the important thing is to let those children know they are wanted and loved. Best of luck to you.

[R.W. Sanders]

12:36 PM on 11/03/2010

Our government and our elections have nothing to do with democrats vs. republicans. It is all about money. Who gets money and who does not. 98% of us have been losing for decades. Yet we vote for only dems and repubs. The truth is that many are elected and go to D.C. with the best of intentions. Within weeks they are corrupted by money and special interests. Each member of congress must spend approximately 95% of their time raising money. They have very, very little time to actually govern. They eat breakfast, lunch and dinner at fund raisers and spend the rest of their time on the phone, soliciting campaign contributions.
Citizens United decision allows much larger contributions thereby freeing up time to serve their corporate masters. Either they kowtow to moneyed interests or get back on the phone. Because elections are largely won and lost by who has the most money. And the public loses.
I am so proud of my state for showing the nation that we cannot be purchased. Meg spent around 150 million of her own money to try to win. The sad thing is that that money barely lightened her wallet. She could spend that every year for the rest of her life and never run out of money. She would still be a billionaire. I wish the rest of the country would reject this attempt to purchase votes as did California. Government is by the people, but for the few.

[JimR]

11:37 AM on 11/03/2010

Yup. It really was that simple. People reacted to the tough economic times and didn't see Congress doing anything to help the situation.

[osage]

11:01 AM on 11/03/2010

PRESIDENT OBAMA, WHAT NOW?

Obama will once again reach out to Republicans…this time because he REALLY has no choice, and they will once again ignore him and try to destroy him. My question is, what is President Obama, the leader of the Democratic Party whether he accepts that responsibility or not, going to do to unite the Democratic Party? How is he going to restore the faith of Democrats when so many liberals, progressives, first-time voters and left leaning independents feel betrayed by his White House….now that all their warnings, fears and predictions of Democratic disaffection have been proven absolutely JUSTIFIED?

[TheSheeple]

10:30 AM on 11/03/2010

Here is "the real story"
Last night explained:
https://webmail.west.cox.net/do/redirect?url=http%253A%252F%252Fwww.youtube.com%252Fwatch%253Fv%253DtsZpWej8pF4%2526feature%253Dplayer_embedded

[hellboundtrain]

10:24 AM on 11/03/2010

It makes no sense. Congress passes NAFTA and CAFTA, with other trade agreements in the works, the warnings are given that jobs will be lost. President signs into law, jobs do disappear, and then we cry and wonder where all the jobs went. Non-sense, to be sure.

That would also explain the election results we just got.

[heartlandlib]

02:32 PM on 11/04/2010

That was the past you are talking about the ones that said we were "protectionist" to complain about the prospect of jobs being lost. The present Congress and President tried to pass anti-outsourcing legislation last month, but the Republicans all voted against it. The media doesn't talk about it much, the voters didn't pay attention and now the Republicans who threw away our surplus and jobs and wasted money in an unecessary war in the early to mid 2000s get voted back in. We shouldn't had the current election results but Americans are easily mislead over and over again

[farmilyman]

09:53 AM on 11/03/2010

So lets put the people back into power that wrecked the economy...........smart.

[rmd1064]

09:16 AM on 11/03/2010

Excellent points indeed. I consider myself a conservative in some ways, but support President Obama and his policies. I have no idea what he could have done differently to stimulate job creation--if anything his policies may have saved millions of jobs. What really can a government do? But as noted, people in the U6 group don't really care about that. They want to blame someone, and that someone was the ruling party--the Dems. How anyone believes the GOP will offer any solutions to our problems is beyond me. They talk about cutting the deficit, but will not even consider allowing the tax cuts to expire for the 1% of the richest Americans. They do not name a single thing they would cut. What is funny is that the GOP used the "Tea Party" movement to perfection, but in reality--they couldn't give a damn about these lower and middle class Americans. Sure, vote for the GOP--make sure we smack around that Marxist Dem party, but expect the GOP to repeal health care (which benefits the Tea Party constituents more than others), cut unemployment benefits, deregulate financial reform (that protect those people from banks, credit card companies), etc. Fine, be careful what you wish for, the GOP is back in power, and will surely make sure to run the country into a ditch again while protecting the fat cats and super rich in this country--their true pimp.

[Daemon Process]

07:38 AM on 11/03/2010

That graph line was more symptomatic than causal.

[IWantAJob]

04:45 AM on 11/03/2010

Where the jobs went. Read about the Indian IT companies complaining that Obama wants to end tax breaks for firms that create jobs and profits overseas. And raising the fees on the work visas. Nasscomm, Infosys, Tata, Wipro all send a large number of staff to the United States for onsite projects. Hard to believe there are no Americans qualified

(Reuters) - A delegation of Indian IT companies will visit the United States next week to raise their concerns over what they fear are protectionist measures that could harm the $60 billion industry.
The Indian outsourcing sector generates about 70 percent of its revenue from the United States
Nasscomm
Infosys
Tata
Wipro
http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-51457520100913

[Bumpkins]

07:20 AM on 11/03/2010

Better start to put into place some protective tariffs....last chance for us.

[HansB]

07:45 AM on 11/03/2010

But the US sells most of the software it buys from India on to other foreign countries. If I'm not mistaken the US sells considerably more abroad than it buys abroad.

[R.W. Sanders]

11:55 AM on 11/03/2010

Why then is there a trade imbalance? We buy way more than we export. That is why when we stop consuming, as we have in the last few years, the entire world goes into recession. I'm sorry, but I think that you are mistaken.

[stephenlight]

12:13 PM on 11/03/2010

You are incorrect. We import massively more than we sell abroad. Hence, the trade deficit.

[RIghtGuy101]

02:52 AM on 11/03/2010

All companies, including small businesses, are profit drive...n. Some companies increase profits by switching from labor to capital which usually cuts production costs and in a competitive market, will cause prices paid by consumers to plummet. Many companies that are considered real villains, such as financial companies, banks, utility companies and cable companies are all heavily protected by the government against competition. Contrary to popular belief, 'Wall Street' (the financial market) is already the most regulated market in the country and always has been despite small increases and decreases in regulation over time.

And during a recession, labor cuts are required otherwise businesses will operate at a loss. Obviously, when revenue decreases due to less demand in the market, costs must be cut by doing myriad things including terminating labor employment. That's why the country has such high unemployment now. There are some businesses doing well, but most aren't. It's like pointing out those businesses that are failing when the economy is good. It's just not an accurate representation of how business works.

[Acharn]

06:49 AM on 11/03/2010

Yes, And your point is ...?

[DFD CPA]

08:25 AM on 11/03/2010

*And during a recession, labor cuts are required otherwise businesses will operate at a loss. *

So weird...they had the BUSH TAX CUTS in effect.

[Marcelo Munoz]

01:50 AM on 11/03/2010

This off-year election was not so much about Democrats losing, and certainly not about Republicans winning. It was about the American people rediscovering the Constitution, realizing they are free and equal by God’s hand and not Washington’s, and reclaiming self-government.

It was a tremendous triumph for the American people.

Superficial commentators and self-serving prognosticators are certain this election was just another hyper-partisan fight. They insist that the Tea Parties fit in a neat, partisan box.

Indeed, there is endless speculation about what dark forces of secret big money funded the Tea Parties. Many refuse to believe spontaneous demonstrations are possible without Huffington Post buses and union incentives.

As for Republicans, they are eager to join the Tea Parties, but they are still wondering how this happened and afraid of an uncontrollable popular movement.

To be sure, the Democrats deserved to lose Tuesday by taunting the electorate with their utter contempt for the Constitution and abject disdain for common Americans. But Republicans didn’t necessarily earn the win with their timid approach and cautious yet incomplete acceptance of the Tea Parties.

Both parties and the elite political class in Washington highlighted in stark relief the incredible disconnect between our rulers and traditional American values.

http://blo­­g.al.com/­p­ress-reg­is­ter-com­men­tary/2­010/­11/yo­ur_wo­rd_h­ow_and­_wh­y_tea_p­ar­t.html

[mrcontinental]

03:31 AM on 11/03/2010

This is complete and utter drivel. Have a nice day!

[nothingchanges]

01:46 AM on 11/03/2010

When all the shouting is said and done, nothing changed, we will have two political parties, each blaming the other for all of our ills, and a gridlocked congress that can pass nothing but gas. Going to make for interesting times.

[Dr Carol LaBra]

01:44 AM on 11/03/2010

I agree with the blogger but my prior 4 replies have not been allowed to be posted by the censors. Does anyone know why they are so terrified of an open expression of ideas or why they are paid so much or volunteer to keep freedom of speech from being practiced? For the repression of statements that agree with what has already been said is almost as dangerous as stifling dissent and asserting everything is wonderful.