Report Challenges Purported Guantanamo 'Recidivism' Figures

WASHINGTON -- On the ninth anniversary of the first detainee's arrival at the infamous prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, a Washington think tank challenged intelligence estimates suggesting that large numbers of former detainees have taken up arms against the United States.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper claimed in December -- without offering any evidence -- that 13.5 percent of former Guantanamo detainees are confirmed, and an additional 11.5 percent are suspected of "reengaging" in terrorist or insurgent activities after their release.

The conservative media embraced the storyline that as many as one in four former detainees had returned to the battlefield, up sharply from the prior year.

But three scholars with the New America Foundation are out with a new report -- this one backed up with data -- concluding that only 6 percent of released detainees engaged or are suspected of having engaged with insurgents aimed at attacking U.S. interests. Another 2 percent engaged or are suspected of having engaged against non-U.S. targets.

Members of a NAF panel Tuesday afternoon also challenged the notion that some detainees "returned" to the battlefield, noting that many were innocent to begin with.

Tom Wilner, a Washington attorney who argued on behalf of Guantanamo detainees in the Supreme Court's 2004 and 2008 cases in which they won habeas corpus rights, described the plight of one of his former clients, a Kuwaiti named Abdallah Saleh Ali Al Ajmi
.
"I was absolutely convinced that he did not do anything wrong," Wilner said. "But I was concerned about his release, because he had become furious. He had turned, at Guantanamo, into this sort of madman."

And indeed, less than three years after the Bush Administration sent him back to Kuwait, Al Ajmi carried out a suicide bombing in Iraq.

British freelance journalist Andy Worthington, who tracks Guantanamo detainees, said he was concerned at how the recidivism figures were "conjured up out of nowhere" but treated as fact by many mainstream media outlets. "It's bad journalism," he said.

Most reports also lacked context. "You don't have anything like a zero recidivism rate in any prison system," he said.

The figures were cited by conservatives in their arguments against closing Guantanamo. Democrats, afraid of the political repercussions, joined with Republicans to include provisions in the latest defense authorization bill intended to prevent Obama from closing Guantanamo.

Obama last week called those provisions "dangerous and unprecedented."

"Every day that a place like Guantanamo is open is an insult to values that decent American people hold," Worthington said.

"I am furious and ashamed," Wilner said. "I think Guantanamo is a symbol for fear and weakness."

Comments

[Dan Stewart]

05:27 AM on 01/12/2011

Guantanamo is now an enduring worldwide symbol of America.

[Servility]

05:49 AM on 01/12/2011

I'm sure it's the first thing people think of when they think of the United States. LOL

[Dan Stewart]

09:29 AM on 01/12/2011

You're living up to your namesake.

[Dan Stewart]

09:31 AM on 01/12/2011

I travel extensively internationally (S. America, Europe, Asia).  Everyone knows Gitmo.

[shangrolah]

06:04 AM on 01/12/2011

Has been ever since at least the second half of the Bush administration. "Enduring" is exactly the right word.

[DRaymond]

05:17 AM on 01/12/2011

The strange thing is that I couldn't imagine a serious terrorist organization like Al-Qaida taking back somebody who had been to Gitmo.  I mean talk about your 'compromised asset'.  The americans know his name, know his face, and know practically everything possible about him!

[shangrolah]

06:05 AM on 01/12/2011

True. And also one of them could be a spy for the US. You are right. This makes no sense--- or common sense at it might be.

[JPMP]

05:12 AM on 01/12/2011

The "re" in recidivism means returning to do what one lead one to be incarcerated. So the entire premise of the Clapper claim is false. (note also it was made without supporting evidence.)

We are NOT talking about recidivism but the same kind of grinding abuse that has sparked the terrorism in the first place.

The VAST majority of the 800 Gitmo inmates were absolutely innocent of any activity that might be considered "terrorist."

They were merely rounded up, many actually purchased, so that the the totally inept, incompetent and corrupt Bush administration could give the appearance of "doing business."

The question is: what fraction of a population wrongfully incarcerated for years without charge, and probably tortured, will thus be radicalized to retaliate when released.

[RumiSouth]

03:45 AM on 01/12/2011

*British freelance journalist Andy Worthington, who tracks Guantanamo detainees, said he was concerned at how the recidivism figures were "conjured up out of nowhere" but treated as fact by many mainstream media outlets. "It's bad journalism," he said.*

WMD "evidence" conj

[RumiSouth]

03:43 AM on 01/12/2011

*British freelance journalist Andy Worthington, who tracks Guantanamo detainees, said he was concerned at how the recidivism figures were "conjured up out of nowhere" but treated as fact by many mainstream media outlets. "It's bad journalism," he said.*

WMD "evidence" conjured out of nowhere. ACORN videos sliding right past the BS filter. Basically, the media has learned absolutely nothing.

[mikesw]

12:39 AM on 01/12/2011

There are not enough American flags to hide the disgrace of Guantanamo. Close it NOW before it turns into America's gulag.

[FunkSands]

12:32 AM on 01/12/2011

Great ariticle refuting the standard righty claim of "One in seven detainees released go back to terror".
 
http://www­.newameric­a.net/publ­ications/p­olicy/guan­tanamo_who­_really_re­turned_bat­tlefield
 
The estimate of this study showed that 4% of detainees released are confirmed to have joined or re-joined and actively participat­­ed with terrorist organizati­­ons.
 
Three of the worst are:
 
"Abdullah Ghulam Rasoul and Said Ali al-Shihri may be the two best arguments for why releasing Guantanamo detainees can pose a real risk to U.S. interests. Rasoul, who was transferre­­d under the Bush administra­­tion to Afghanista­­n in 2007 and then released by the Kabul government­­, is now reported to be the commander of operations for the Taliban in southern Afghanista­­n. Al-Shihri, sent back to his native Saudi Arabia in 2007, is now a leader of al-Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen."
 
I draw a couple of conclusion­­s about this study:
 
1) We have no effective way to prepare, process and execute trials of suspected detainees, forciing sloppy release of a few real bad people that go back to bad organizati­­ons
 
2) The other 96% apparently "learned their lesson" after a couple of years detention OR were innocent to begin with.  This is an argument for faster processing and/or release of many of the remaining detainees
 
3) The King's Dungeon is a very useful tool that will be very hard to get the current power structure to give up.  Bottomless holes are very useful for all of the wrong reasons.
 
4) If the GOP and Blue Dogs weren't such lily-liver­­ed cow_ards, we could have released / tried / jailed everyone by now and shut this place down forever

[chedet]

12:03 AM on 01/12/2011

I guess the the true purpose of Gitmo is to create terrorists. Why else would you scoop anybody without any shred of evidence and detain them for years?

[1776 or 1984]

11:47 PM on 01/11/2011

Almost 10 years later,

No 9 1 1convictions.

That tells me who the guilty party really is.

[Marvelousdreams]

07:33 AM on 01/12/2011

They can't try that case without presenting evidence. And, the evidence that would support the theory that 9/11 perps are being held at Gitmo. Evidence that will be examined and cross examined. Do you think there will ever by a 9/11 trial at Gitmo or NY?

[1776 or 1984]

07:21 PM on 01/12/2011

A legitimate open trail will never happen.

Based on analyzing facts from Pulitizer-prize winning and Emmy-Award winning writers and investigative reporters, I have concluded that a US covert operation would be exposed if KSM had a fair and open trial.

[RubalKhali]

11:44 PM on 01/11/2011

"I think Guantanamo is a symbol for fear and weakness."

It is also a symbol for torture, denial of basic human rights, incarceration without trial, illegal occupation of a foreign country, and a shining example for the rest of the world what complete hypocrits Americans are.

[niceshoes60]

11:37 PM on 01/11/2011

"I think Guantanamo is a symbol for fear and weakness." Indeed.

I believe Ben Franklins said it best:
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

[Dan Stewart]

05:30 AM on 01/12/2011

And will lose both.

[LouGots]

10:43 PM on 01/11/2011

Insanity. If we release belligerents before the cessation of hostilities, of course they will return to the fight. That would be their duty. When we captured Germans in Tunisia in 1943, we held them until after the war was over. Otherwise we would have had to fight them all over again, in Italy , or Normandy.

[Articulator]

10:52 PM on 01/11/2011

The majority of them were handed over to American troops by people looking to claim a bounty with no evidence other than the person's statement collecting the bounty.
Ya, that's the ticket, they're all terrorists.

[Jeff Rosenbury]

11:19 PM on 01/11/2011

The majority? You mean the ones already released?

[Jeff Rosenbury]

11:22 PM on 01/11/2011

These people are not being held as P.O.W.s. They are being held as terrorists.

Yet they were not determined to be terrorists by a court martial as would happen in the normal military prisoner system. The C.I.A. grabbed them instead.

This goes against convention, treaty, and the constitution.

[MMRDO]

10:39 PM on 01/11/2011

Just order a stop to policies you do not approve of at the base and then fly the media and legal people you want down there.

[Acharn]

12:14 AM on 01/12/2011

But the policy he (Obama) claimed he did not approve of was imprisoning innocent people -- or at least people who have not been charged with any crime. And by "charged" I mean having some authority present to an independent judge a claim, backed up by SOME evidence, that they have committed a crime. The review boards that have approved (not always) their detention do not meet the standards of the Geneva Conventions, much less the U.S. "legal system" (as it used to be). When an independent judge has had a chance to look at the reasons the authorities give for keeping these guys locked up, in about two thirds of the cases they've said the evidence isn't persuasive. They're mostly being held because everyone is terrified of making a mistake and releasing somebody who then does something serious.

[Countess]

10:04 PM on 01/11/2011

I think finding something they don't lie about would require a great deal of time and effort.

[ginger42]

09:55 PM on 01/11/2011

Close the damn thing. Period