CO-2012 President: 47% Obama (D), 41% Romney (R) (PPP 2/4-6)

Public Policy Polling (D)
2/4-6/11; 517 likely voters, 4.3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
PPP release

Colorado

2012 President
53% Obama (D), 39% Gingrich (R)
51% Obama (D), 42% Huckabee (R)
55% Obama (D), 36% Palin (R)
47% Obama (D), 41% Romney (R)

Obama Job Approval
51% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Favorable / Unfavorable
Newt Gingrich: 26 / 55
Mike Huckabee: 37 / 40
Sarah Palin: 32 / 62
Mitt Romney: 40 / 40

Comments

[Dave WI]

10:23 PM on 02/08/2011

Still upset about Ken Buck peeing away this Senate seat.

[LMKay66]

09:51 PM on 02/08/2011

Obama has healthy leads over every other potential contender.  Unless they come up with a new shining star we haven't seen yet, it looks like Obama will easily win.  Obama even polls favorably over Sarah in Tennessee, a very red state.  He could probably even beat her in Alaska, as I've heard he has a higher approval rating than she does.  But I don't think she'll be the nominee.  Whoever is the nominee, Obama wins.

[alanrsnipes]

06:40 PM on 02/08/2011

I don't think Wisconsin is in danger of going Republican in 2012. It hasn't gone Republican in a presidential election since 1984. When they beat Feingold, it was the first time in more than 20 years that Republicans have won a senate seat there.
Finally, Obama carried it by more than12 points.

[ColoradoMeansRed]

04:24 PM on 02/08/2011

Oh brother. I live in Colorado and I'm certain that the president's approval is nowhere near 51%, and I'm also confident that his chances of winning Colorado again are slim. The state is probably more conservative today than it was two years ago, and it is certainly going to be a tough nut to crack again without a convention bounce and an unpopular incumbant to bounce off of (this time Obama is the unpopular incumbant).

More astounding are the crazy crosstabs. An 8% Democrat advantage? Well, why not go hog wild and give Obama a 40 point turnout bump--if we're making numbers up why not make them really up? The reality is that the GOP enjoys a cozy 3-5 point registration advantage in Colorado, and even granting Obama a bump with college kids and Hispanics, the numbers won't even be close to '08.

Finally, since when was Colorado a "bright spot" in 2010? If you call losing 3 of 5 statewide races, two house races and the the delegation majority, and half of the state legislature a "bright spot," then 2008 must have been a supernova. Michael Bennet outspent a political novice by a large margin and won by less than a percentage point. A win's a win, but even then-Governor Ritter conceded that in a conservative state like Colorado, Bennet pulled off a miracle (and his only did it with a lot of money).

Obama may win next year, but it won't be with Colorado's help.

[sportsman885]

10:30 PM on 02/08/2011

Ehh...

A couple points...yes, the sample does skew left a bit. But the 2010 exit poll showed a 5 point Democratic edge and liberals made up around 22% of the vote. This is coming in a very Republican heavy year. It was one of the few states to turn out an electorate that was more liberal and Democratic than in 2008. To counter that, the 2010 electorate was older and whiter.

Second, this poll doesn't give Obama a bump up in young voters. They make up just 8 or 9% of the sample.

Third, Michael Bennet himself was a political novice as he was appointed to the position. And when you consider outside groups pouring money into the state, it was Republicans who actually outspent the Democrats in Colorado. There was a study on the election saying this exact thing.

I'm not sure if the state is any more conservative than it was in 2008. The trending demographics favor Democrats. But it's about getting your key groups out to vote. And the 2012 electorate is going to be more Democratic friendly than what turned out in 2010.

And you're crazy if you're actually comparing Obama's popularity to the popularity of George Bush in 2008. If anything, Obama is a modestly popular incumbent. That could change in two years.

I don't expect Obama to win Colorado by as much as he did in 2008, but I do expect him to win the state.

[Xenobion]

04:08 PM on 02/08/2011

I think there are obvious states that are trending blue with large black/hispanic and youth populations like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, ect. that Obama will retain as those states are going through a demographic change. Some of the states he won like South Dakota, Indiana, even Wisconsin he may not win because those states voted largely on national sentiment and have had somewhat stagnant population growth with no demographic changes.

[Crimsonite]

04:19 PM on 02/08/2011

Obama didn't win South Dakota. I wonder what state you meant. I'm guessing others in the midwest, such as Ohio or maybe Florida which are traditional toss up states. And I still don't see NC going Dem again, at least not in 2012. The was a really strong tide in 2008, and I don't think it will reappear.

[Xenobion]

04:24 PM on 02/08/2011

Er I actually meant Missouri. States that have had little population change and aren't trending in a direction. They're more stagnant and I think will be more critical than 2008 over Obama.

[Xenobion]

04:24 PM on 02/08/2011

And for Missouri I realize he didn't win it, but I think he'll do worse this time around and campaign in it less.

[Williame123]

04:45 PM on 02/08/2011

I just don't understand why people think Wisconsin is going Red just because Republicans did well there in 2010. Even with a strong Republican tide and a terrible economy Jonhnson beat a hardline liberal like Feingold by only 5 points. In Pennsylvania Toomey won by only 2 points and in Illinois Kirk was by only 2 points. The so-called Republican resurgence in the Midwest is vastly overrated.
The 2010 electorate was very right-leaning. 2012 will be a presidential year with a different electorate. Quite frankly the only Obama States I give Romney a chance at winning are Nevada(Mormon factor), Indiana and Florida. I don't think Romney will win NC, VA, CO or any of the upper Midwestern States. All this is predicated on the economy continuing on its current trajectory.

[alanrsnipes]

03:49 PM on 02/08/2011

This makes the seventh state that Obama won in 2008 that he took from the republicans from 2004.
It is early and anything can happen but he looks to be in good shape as of today for a solid re-election.
I would be curious to see polls from Montana (Obama lost by three) and Missouri (lost by 3900 votes).