US-2012 Primary: 18% Huckabee, 16% Romney, 16% Palin, 9% Gingrich (Gallup 2/18-20)

Gallup
2/18-20/11; 1,326 Republicans and Republican leaning independents
Mode: Live telephone interviews
Gallup release

National

2012 President: Republican Primary
18% Huckabee
16% Romney
16% Palin
9% Gingrich
5% Paul
4% Bachmann
3% Pawlenty
3% Barbour
3% Daniels
2% Santorum
1% Huntsman
1% Christie
1% Pence
1% Johnson
1% Thune

Comments

[MarvinM]

11:20 AM on 02/25/2011

(ah, I think my last version of this got stuck in moderation and cast out for using the actual name of a certain reviled German dictator. Let me try again.)

This may be a strange litmus test, but from what I know to date about the top three on that poll, if any of them were to become the Rep. Pres. candidate and were running against, say, a Dem. candidate whose name rhymed with "Raydolf Mitler", I would have no trouble voting for Romney. Huckabee I am less certain about. But if it was Palin running against Mitler, I'd write in my dog's name before voting for her.

[Xenobion]

01:28 PM on 02/24/2011

I expect 2012 to get the left motivated. It is already happening with all these debates with abortion and already weakening independents on republicans because its apparently not about jobs. In 1994 Clinton only managed to pick up 9 house seats but I expect Obama probably to pick up much more given Republican gains.

[stillow1]

02:41 PM on 02/24/2011

Of course the left will be motivated, but so will the right. This argument on Indy's is absurd. Since Obama won in 2008, Indy's have run away from Dems. We saw in in VA and NJ in 2009. We saw it in MA in 2010 when we witnessed one of the biggest upsets in history. We saw it in 2010 November elections as the GOP made gains not seen in over half a century.

You guys on the left keep talking about Indy's and demographi changes, yet each election we have had since Obama's election that could possibly backup your rhetoric totally contradicts it instead. With the exception of just a few races where the GOP suffered from horrible candidates (angle) Dems have been getting crushed and its due in large part to a movement by Indy's to the GOP. Despite beleifs early on by the left, Obama is not made of steel....his approvals are mediocre and below 50.

There is simply no indication at this point that Indy's are moving back to the Dems....

[Xenobion]

11:42 PM on 02/24/2011

Oh but I'll make the prediction now like you always like to do. Indy's will swing to Obama in 2012. How do I know? I just know! Expect many GOP losses as we can only traverse down the mountain now.

[honkok]

10:22 AM on 02/24/2011

Sarah Pal!n will be the Next President of USA in January 2013.

[Xenobion]

01:26 PM on 02/24/2011

lol

[honkok]

10:20 AM on 02/24/2011

Sarah Pal!n will BEAT Obama EASILY Next Month.

[axt113]

09:11 PM on 02/23/2011

If Huck doesn't run, most of his support goes to Palin, so she wins the nomination if he stays out, so I'm hoping he doesn't run.

Romney is pretty much toast

[stillow1]

10:51 PM on 02/23/2011

If romney can survive the primary, which i think is doubtful, he will pose a large problem for Obama in a general election. If Huckabee wins the nomination he is quite capable of recapturing Bush's 2004 map. palin is virtually unelectable in a general.....and i still do not think she will run and if she does she cannot even win the primary IMO.

That said, I personally do not think the nominee is romney, Huck or palin....its going to be someone like Hunstman...or someone who has not yet been talked about. Its tough to predict these things this fr out....at this point in 2007, it was all but gauranteed hillary owuld be the Dem nominee.

[axt113]

11:27 PM on 02/23/2011

Obama can easily beat Romney, he wins most head to heads between them with relative ease, Palin will be a landslide, which is why I want her, Huck may be a problem, but once it gets out that he let out a guy who committed murders (willie horton part 2 anyone?), I think Obama will win.

The Dem and GOP nomination process is different, I don't think a dark horse has a chance in the GOP nomination process, Plus Obama was well known nationally in 2007 unlike the GOP dark horses.

Basically Obama has a really good chance of winning in 2012 against anyone the GOP can field (not to mention, its very hard to bump off an incumbent), but the more fringe the candidate, the bigger the margin of victory, which meas a better chance of Obama's coattails being long enough to retake the house.

[stillow1]

01:47 AM on 02/24/2011

Dems will not regain the House....I'd bet you huge money on that. And the smart money is on them losing the Senate. Right now O's only advantage is his incumbency. He has lost a lot of populairty, his base is angry at him and the right is really pumped up to defeat him. He is not making any improvement in his job approval, he had a very short lived modest bump in january, but its since faded away.

It would be rare for anyone to out poll a sitting president this far out, but Romney polls well against Obama....he is close and well within striking distance in almost every state so far where the two have been polled. And in many cases is within the MOE. But again romneyh as to survive the primary and romneycare is going to make that a real challenge.

Right now advantage to O based on incumbency, but the door is defintely open.....unless Obama can do something about his approval....and with things like high unemployement and rising gas prices, that is going to be hard for him to do.

[Xenobion]

07:01 PM on 02/23/2011

Ugh this is going to be like 2008 where there were like 21 Republican primary candidates.

[stillow1]

10:53 PM on 02/23/2011

The more the better.....the GOP could use a good solid internal debate on who best to represent them. They will get there fair shar of unelectables like palin in the mix, but in the end will emerge someone who will pose a problem for Obama who remains right in that 45-50 approval range making a re-election anything but certain.

[Dave WI]

06:34 PM on 02/23/2011

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO JOHN THUNE'S 1 PERCENT?

[gevan]

05:42 PM on 02/23/2011

What did we actually learn from this poll? That ninety-five percent of Republicans are idiots?

[stillow1]

06:11 PM on 02/23/2011

Wow, what a brilliant piece of analysis.....come up with that all by yourself?

[gevan]

07:53 PM on 02/23/2011

My Republican friends helped me.