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Middle East Protests: Arab Demonstration Surge Expected In Gulf On Friday

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YEMEN PROTEST
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DUBAI, March 10 (Reuters) - Arab uprisings that have spread to the conservative Gulf region face a crucial test this week in Saudi Arabia where activists have made unprecedented calls for mass protests against the kingdom's absolute monarchy.

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Gulf leaders are struggling to hold back an Internet-era generation of Arabs who appear less inclined to accept arguments appealing to religion and tradition to explain why ordinary citizens should be shut out of decision-making.

Protests are planned in other Gulf countries such as Yemen, Kuwait and Bahrain on Friday, the region's weekend. The time after Friday prayers has proved to be crucial in popular uprisings that have brought down Tunisian and Egyptian rulers who once seemed invulnerable.

Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Gulf, is home to Islam's holiest sites and a long-time U.S. ally that has ensured oil supplies for the West.

More than 32,000 people have backed a Facebook call to hold two demonstrations in the country, the first of them on Friday. Saudi police dispersed a protest by a Shi'ite minority in the OPEC member's oil-producing Eastern province near Bahrain on Thursday with one to four people wounded as shots were heard, witnesses said.

It was the latest of a series of small protests by Eastern Province Shi'ites over the past three weeks and clerics are trying to dissuade Sunnis in the major cities from joining in by branding the demonstrations a Shi'ite phenomenon.

"Secret Shi'ite hands want to corrupt this country," messages sent to mobile phones this week said.

Riyadh has tried to counter the call with promises of money and other measures including a pro-government Facebook page "against the revolution" with 23,000 supporters.

"There is no fear but much anticipation. I don't necessarily think much will happen tomorrow, but the most important thing is that an idea has appeared," said former Saudi judge Abdelaziz al-Gassem, adding small numbers could set off a chain reaction.

"(Gulf rulers) are deluded in thinking they can ignore the demands," he said. "They are facing their biggest test ever, bigger than al Qaeda -- the people demanding justice, equality, the rule of law, supervision of government. This cannot be dealt with through violence."

Saudi Arabia has tried to present itself over the years as immune to the kind of activism now sweeping the Arab world. But al-Gassem, a campaigner for reforms, said these arguments were "nonsense".

SHI'ITES LEAD THE WAY

"What the regime is worried about is setting a precedent for protests, that when people have problems they're going to feel more comfortable and more willing to take to the streets," said Shadi Hamid, an analyst with the Brookings Institute in Qatar.

Washington -- which has buttressed the Gulf dynasties as a counterbalance to Iran -- raised the stakes in comments this week calling peaceful assembly a universal right that must be respected even in a country that claims unique status as an Islamic state like Saudi Arabia.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal slammed "foreign intervention" in a news conference on Wednesday that seemed to highlight the problems facing a family that monopolises political life in a country named after them.

"The called-for reform does not come via protests and (the clerics) have forbidden protests since they violate the Koran and the way of the Prophet," said Prince Saud, who has occupied the foreign minister portfolio since 1975.

STARTED IN YEMEN AND SPREAD

The protest movements hit populous Yemen a month ago and spread to the Gulf states where dynasties who secured their rule in colonial times and have bought their people's acquiescence by dispensing petrodollars.

Bahrain has been the most vulnerable. Majority Shi'ites who resent domination by the al-Khalifa dynasty have staged pro-democracy protests and analysts say Saudi pressure has been heavy on Manama to stamp them out.

This week hardline Shi'ite groups formed an alliance to ditch the monarchy and turn Bahrain -- an island state whose rulers look to Riyadh for support -- into a republic. They are planning a march on the royal palace on Friday.

Yemen is also set for an escalation after opposition groups, who have held pro-democracy marches for the past month, rejected veteran ruler Ali Abdullah Saleh's offer of reforms on Thursday.

A small number of Kuwaitis held protests this week, while activists and intellectuals in the United Arab Emirates petitioned the rulers for democratic elections. Last week Omanis clashed with police over jobs and corruption in government.

Several Gulf rulers seem to hope more money will solve their problems.

Saudi King Abdullah has vowed to distribute some $37 billion in handouts to students, the unemployed and other low-income Saudis via a series of pay bonuses and benefits announced as he returned in February after a three-month absence for medical treatment.

Gulf Arab oil producers launched a $20 billion aid package on Thursday for poorer Gulf countries Bahrain and Oman.

"For most of us, it's not about money, it's about having a share in our government," said Mohammed al-Mansoori, a rights activist in the United Arab Emirates. "In other places people have dignity, here, people don't." (Additional reporting by Erika Solomon; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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Reports the AP:

The Obama administration extended its Libya sanctions to more Gadhafi family members and close advisers on Thursday, blacklisting business with the Libyan leader's wife, four of his children and his chief of military intelligence.

The Treasury Department froze the assets of nine Libyans in all as part of the strategy to peel off Moammar Gadhafi's closest advisers while punishing those who remain loyal to the regime even as it commits human rights violations.

The sanctions come on top of those previously announced by the administration, which accounted for billion in Libyan government assets blocked in the United States.

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French President Nicolas Sarkozy has called for airstrikes against Gaddafi forces if the leader attacks civilians. According to the Guardian:

Nicolas Sarkozy has called for targeted air strikes against Muammar Gaddafi's regime if his forces use chemical weapons or launch air strikes against civilians.

As the EU foreign policy chief, Lady Ashton, warned that a no-fly zone could risk civilian lives in Libya, the French president told an emergency EU summit in Brussels that air strikes may soon be justified.

"The strikes would be solely of a defensive nature if Mr Gaddafi makes use of chemical weapons or air strikes against non-violent protesters," Sarkozy said. The French president qualified his remarks by saying he had many reservations about military intervention in Libya "because Arab revolutions belong to Arabs".

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A Dutch helicopter crew taken captive in Libya has been freed and sent to Greece. The BBC is reporting:

The two men and one woman arrived in Athens on a Greek military transport plane hours after a son of Muammar Gaddafi announced their release.

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi said Libya would hold on to the crew's Lynx helicopter.

The woman pilot, Yvonne Niersman, took part in a mission last year to free a German ship from Somali pirates.

Ms Niersman and her fellow crew members were captured in Libya after flying in from the Dutch warship Tromp, anchored off the coast.

Read the entire report here.

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Senator John McCain praised Morocco's King Mohammed VI for his pledge to introduce democratic reforms. According to the AFP:

"This new reform agenda builds on the king's long-standing commitment to lead Morocco to a future of reform and modernization, and it could ensure that the Kingdom of Morocco will continue to stand as a positive example to governments across the Middle East and North Africa," said McCain.

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Reuters is reporting that Gaddafi is now offering to offer amnesty to those rebels who lay own arms.

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The AP reports:

Tunisia's Interior Ministry says a new eruption of violence between police and protesters has killed two people and injured 20.

The ministry says on its Facebook page that police fired tear gas and demonstrators threw stones and gasoline bombs.

The statement says two protesters were killed in the incident in Metlaoui, a mining town in the center of the Mediterranean country.

The violence comes as Tunisia's interim government is trying to restore stability after deadly protests that drove out longtime leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January. That prompted uprisings around the Arab world.

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Berlusconi is saying that the West may have made a mistake by taking a hardline against Gaddafi, which may have backed the Libyan leader into a corner. Reports Reuters:

The hardline stance taken by major powers against Muammar Gaddafi may have backed the Libyan leader into a corner and prevented a quiet exit, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said on Friday. Speaking after a special meeting of EU leaders, Berlusconi, one of Gaddafi's closest friends in Europe until the current upheaval, said the chances of persuading him to give up power voluntarily now appeared to have disappeared.

"Once someone put forward the idea of bringing Gaddafi before the International Criminal Court, I think the idea of staying in power became entrenched with him and I don't think anyone can make him change his mind," he told reporters.

Read the entire report here.

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The AP is reporting that the rebels fighting Gaddafi forces are amateurs, but deeply committed to the cause:

Moammar Gadhafi has ruled Libya since long before the 25-year-old was born, and he hates the dictator enough to risk his life by fighting for the ragtag rebel force battling government troops along a desolate highway on the North African country's Mediterranean coast.

"I will fight forever. I will die or win, like Omar Mukhtar," said Salem, invoking the legendary Libyan hero who fought Italian occupiers in the 1930s, was ultimately executed, and has become a symbol for the new revolutionaries.

The front-line force trying to advance toward Gadhafi's stronghold in the capital Tripoli is surprisingly small. Not counting supporters who bolster them in the towns along their path, it is estimated at 1,500 at most — Libyans from all walks of life, from students and coffeeshop owners to businessmen who picked up whatever weapons they could and joined the fight. No one seems to know their full size, and they could be picking up new members all the time.

Its ramshackle nature explains the dramatic lurches the fighting has taken. Last week, they took control over a stretch of Mediterranean coastal land that included major oil installations in the ports of Brega and Ras Lanouf. They charged enthusiastically further west, reaching within a few dozen miles of Gadhafi's hometown of Sirte, a bastion of support for the leader of 41 years.

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Reports the AP:

Moammar Gadhafi's regime has gained momentum with the capture of a key city near Tripoli after days of fierce fighting with rebels.

The battle for Zawiya has emerged as a key test in the government's ability to maintain its hold on the Libyan capital and surrounding areas.

The government had claimed victory on Wednesday, but the rebels who are seeking to oust Gadhafi said fighting was ongoing.

An Associated Press reporter, who was escorted with other journalists into the city on Friday, says the main square that had been the center of resistance is clearly in government control.

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Obama noted all of the sanctions and property seizures that have already been implemented against Gaddafi, saying, "Across the board, we are tightening the noose on Gaddafi." He says that NATO is discussing potential military actions in Libya, including a no-fly zone, and will meet on Tuesday. He said that a position will be created for a liaison to speak with Libyan opposition groups. He said that the international community had moved quickly to isolate Gaddafi.

Obama said that no options have been taken off the table so far. In response to a question about whether it would ever be acceptable to the U.S. for Gaddafi to stay in power, Obama stated that "it is in the U.S.' interest and the interest of the Libyan people for Gaddafi to leave." He added, however, that when making a decision to engage militarily, he would weigh the "costs and benefits."

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President Obama will speak today on the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. You can watch live above.

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The AP is reporting that a quarter of a million people have left Libya:

A quarter million people have fled Libya since the uprising against Moammar Gadhafi's regime began last month, officials said Friday, as they warned they are having trouble getting foreign workers home.

About 6,000 people a day are still crossing into Tunisia and Egypt, many of them Bangladeshi workers who need longer flights, said Mohammed Abdiker, the International Organization for Migration's operation director.

"If the majority continue to be Bangladeshis needing long haul charter flights to get home, the cost to repatriate them will far exceed our current resources," he said.

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Reports the AP:

Eyewitnesses say Yemeni security forces opened fire on demonstrators taking part in protests throughout Yemen in what appears to be the biggest turnout in a month of unrest to demand regime change.

In the southern port city of Aden, the witnesses say security forces shot at demonstrators trying rip down photographs of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Six protesters were wounded, one seriously, said one medic.

Read the entire report here.

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Bill Clinton has voiced his support for a no-fly zone, a policy that has not yet been adopted by the Obama administration. According to Bloomberg:

The U.S. should support a no-fly zone over Libya to help underequipped insurgents fighting to topple well-armed and well-paid troops loyal to dictator Muammar Qaddafi, former U.S. president Bill Clinton said.

“They are not asking for ground troops, they don’t want us to get in the fight,” Clinton said of the insurgents at a conference in New York yesterday on the status of women. “Nobody wants to see an arms race in Libya, but it’s not a fair fight.”

Clinton said he was “sympathetic” to the Obama administration’s desire not to enforce a no-fly zone alone. Clinton noted that similar efforts had worked in the past, both in Bosnia and Iraq during his own presidency.

You can read the entire report here.

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Reuters reports:

@ Reuters : FLASH: Libyan rebel sources tell Reuters Gaddafi forces have withdrawn from central residential area of Ras Lanuf

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Al Jazeera reports:

And the diplomatic games continue. British prime minister David Cameron and French president Nicolas Sarkozy write to EU president Herman Van Rompuy, stating their commitment to "the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national unity of Libya". Parts of it do seem to be a statement of intent toward further politcal - and military - action.

We welcome the formation of an Interim Transitional National Council based in Benghazi and we are engaging with the Council and its members to develop a cooperative dialogue ...

We support continued planning to be ready to provide support for all possible contingencies as the situation evolves on the basis of demonstrable need, a clear legal basis and firm regional support. This could include a no-fly zone or other options against air attacks, working with Allies and partners, especially those in the region. We are working together on elements of an appropriate UN Security Council resolution.

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@ bencnn : Anti-Qaddafi forces advising civilians leave the Al-Brega area concerned government forces will continue eastward advance. #Libya

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Further to our last update, the UK's Spectator magazine has echoed concerns that Col Gaddafi may be on the path to victory in Libya. The magazine warns:

If Gaddafi does emerge from this conflict victorious, then he will surely exact the most terrible vengeance on those parts of the country and those tribes that have risen up against him.

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Reuters reports:

U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said on Thursday that the better-equipped forces of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi will over the long term prevail.

Clapper is facing calls for his resignation as a result of his remarks. Fox reports:

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., called for Clapper to resign or be fired as Director of National Intelligence, citing his comments before the Senate Armed Services Committee this morning, on which Graham sits.

Graham told Cameron that he lacks confidence in Clapper's understanding of his job, that President Obama should "repudiate" Clapper's remarks, and that this is the third time Clapper has faltered in this way.

"Three strikes and you're out," Graham said.

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It's become unclear who's controlling the Libyan Embassy in Washington, D.C.: the ambassador, who defected from Gaddafi, or his second in command, who appears not have changed his allegiance. Foreign Policy reports:

The Libyan embassy office, which is guarded by uniformed secret service guards and armed private security, shows no indications that there has been any change in Libya whatsoever. A large picture of Qaddafi hangs on the wall in between the green regime flag and the flag of the United States. A stack of copies of Qaddafi's manifesto, known as The Green Book, sits on the table. Embassy officers file in and out, as if going about their regular business.

Eventually, an embassy staffer came past. Gracious but uncomfortable, she said that Fatih was out of the office for a few days on "personal business." Asked who was in charge of the embassy, Aujali or Fatih, she responded, "It's very confusing, even to us."

Read more here.

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The AP has this report on today's intense fighting. The rebels they spoke with said that they needed support from the international community, but so far have received "only promises."

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The AP is reporting that a witness said that Saudi forces opened fire on protesters:

Saudi police have opened fire at a rally in the kingdom's east in an apparent escalation of efforts to stop planned protests.

Government officials have warned they will take strong action if activists take to the streets after increasing calls for large protests around the oil-rich kingdom to press for democratic reforms.

A witness in the eastern city of Qatif says gunfire and stun grenades were fired at several hundred protesters marching in the city streets Thursday. The witness, speaking on condition of anonymity because he feared government reprisal, said police in the area opened fire. The witness saw at least one protester injured.

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Clinton will meet with Libyan rebel leaders. Al Jazeera English reports:

Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, is to meet with leaders of Libya's opposition council during a trip to the Middle East next week, she has told US lawmakers.

Clinton's statement of intent comes as France on Thursday became the first major European country to recognise Libya's opposition National Council based in Benghazi as the country's legitimate representative.

"We are reaching out to the opposition inside and outside of Libya," Clinton said while announcing her trip to Tunisia and Egypt.

"I will be meeting with some of those figures, both in the United States and when I travel next week, to discuss what more the United States and others can do," she said.

Read more here.

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BBC News reports:

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi confirms they have freed three Dutch soldiers seized last month during a failed attempt to evacuate two civilians by navy helicopter. "We tell them don't come back again without our permission," Col Gaddafi's son tells Reuters. "This is Libya, not Netherlands. So we release them… but we're still keeping the army helicopter."

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Al Jazeera reports:

It seems that the various homes of the Gaddafi family around the world are becoming the focus of renewed solidarity protests. Danish police have moved to block plans for a giant party at Gaddafi's US.6million villa near Copenhagen.

The Facebook page set up as an open invitation to the March 25 bash had received 3,700 "confirmed attendees" within days. But police in the upmarket Gentofte suburb said they would also turn up. Danish police told the AFP news agency:

"They do not have the authorisation, so they might as well stop planning it, because there won't be a party. If they try, we'll be there."

This follows news that an activist group in England calling themselves 'Topple The Tyrants' is squatting in Saif Gaddafi's luxury mansion there.

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BBC News reports

At a meeting in the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh, six Gulf Arab states from the Gulf Co-operation Council vow in a statement to deal "decisively and immediately, without hesitation" against any threat to the security of any of the oil-rich monarchies, where calls for democratic reform have been mounting.

This comes the day after Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said that the ruling family will "cut off any finger" that is raised against it.

The AP reports that the wave of uprisings in the Arab world has inspired activists from Saudi Arabia's Shiite Muslim minority, who have called for a "Day of Rage" on Friday to demand the regime's ouster. The government accuses Shiites from outside the country of spurring the protests.

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@ ShababLibya : The students have now taken the green flag down and put up the independence flag at the Libyan embassy in London #Libya #Feb17

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This extended report from Al Jazeera, gives an excellent overview of the current international attitude towards establishing a no-fly zone over Libya, and then features a panel discussion with diplomatic experts.

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@ haynesdeborah : Rebels no where to be seen in centre of Zawiyah. Major clean up operation going on. Green flags everywhere

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The AP reports that Secretary Of State Hillary Clinton is to visit the Middle East next week, traveling to Egypt and Tunisia and meeting with Libyan opposition members.

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