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Top U.S. Intelligence Official Tells Congress Gaddafi 'Will Prevail' In Libya

Clapper

First Posted: 03/10/11 11:55 PM ET Updated: 05/25/11 07:40 PM ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government's top intelligence official fumbled the Obama administration's message Thursday about embattled Muammar Gaddafi's fate, telling Congress that the Libyan leader will prevail in his fight with rebel forces there. It was the latest in a series of public gaffes for James Clapper, the director of national intelligence.

Hours later, the White House distanced President Barack Obama from Clapper's remarks. Obama does not think Gaddafi will prevail, a senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss Obama's position on Clapper's comments. The official reiterated Obama's stand that Gaddafi has lost legitimacy and should leave power.

Speaking to senators, Clapper said the Libyan government's military might was stronger than had been described. Clapper said there was no indication that Gaddafi will step down and offer a speedy resolution to the crisis.

"I just think from a standpoint of attrition, that over time, I mean – this is kind of a stalemate back and forth, but I think over the longer term that the (Gaddafi) regime will prevail," Clapper said.

One senator, Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, quickly urged Clapper to resign.

"Unfortunately, this isn't the first questionable comment from the DNI director," Graham said. "However it should be the final straw."

White House spokesman Jay Carney said Clapper has the full confidence of the president. Obama's national security adviser, Tom Donilon, later said the president was happy with Clapper's performance. Donilon, however, walked back Clapper's comments slightly.

"Things in the Middle East right now, and things in Libya in particular right now, need to be looked at not through a static but through a dynamic ... lens," Donilon told reporters. "And if you look at it that way, beyond a narrow view on just kind of numbers of weapons and things that, you get a very different picture."

Clapper wasn't divulging classified information when he was describing the situation in Libya. The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Ronald L. Burgess Jr., agreed with Clapper's assessment.

Graham acknowledged that some of Clapper's analysis could be accurate, but he said those remarks should be spoken behind closed doors.

John Pike, and analyst with Globalsecurity.org, said Clapper was doing what intelligence officials should do: give the best intelligence available. Sometimes that's politically inconvenient, Pike said.

"I don't need a director of national intelligence to tell me what I want to hear," Pike said. "I know what I want to hear."

Earlier this year, Clapper said the Muslim Brotherhood was "largely secular," which his office later clarified by saying the group in Egypt tries to work through the political system.

In December, Clapper was in the dark during an interview on national television when he was asked about a terror plot that had been disrupted in England and had received wide media attention. The White House defended him then too, saying Clapper had been preoccupied with tensions between North and South Korea and with helping ensure the passage of a nuclear weapons treaty with Russia.

Clapper is not the first director of national intelligence to find himself in hot water.

Clapper's predecessor, Dennis Blair, told Congress that the government's elite interrogation team, its High-Value Interrogation Group, had not been officially deployed to question the 2009 Christmas Day bomber. Blair also told Congress that the suspected bomber continued to provide helpful information to investigators at a time when authorities had hoped to keep his cooperation a secret. Blair was also the first Obama administration official to describe the deadly shooting rampage at Fort Hood, Texas, as an act of homegrown terrorism. The Obama administration was slow to publicly link the murders to radical Islamic extremism.

The Bush administration's director of national intelligence, Mike McConnell, made his share of flubs too.

McConnell once divulged the cancellation of a highly classified, multibillion-dollar satellite program. He wrote an opinion piece that left the impression that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act had not been updated since 1978, when the law has been updated dozens of times since its passage. And he spilled classified details about how the surveillance act works to a newspaper editorial board.

___

Associated Press writers Matt Apuzzo, Ben Feller and Adam Goldman contributed to this report.

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WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government's top intelligence official fumbled the Obama administration's message Thursday about embattled Muammar Gaddafi's fate, telling Congress that the Libyan leader will p...
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government's top intelligence official fumbled the Obama administration's message Thursday about embattled Muammar Gaddafi's fate, telling Congress that the Libyan leader will p...
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09:55 AM on 03/14/2011
Sometimes it is necessary to do something intelligent and economically logical, even if distasteful. Whagt should have been done in Iraq. Never send 150,000 men to do what 100 could do with no publicity
05:42 AM on 03/14/2011
Well stement about Gadhaffi prevailing is fairly easy to make if you don't have memory span of a goldfish. Gadhaffi did pull the same stunt in late 80's early 90's when Afgan war veterans started coming home and tried to ignite islamic revolution like in Algeria or Egypt. While Algeria still has problems with it (even if ceasefires and amnesties were signed) Libiya rather quickly resolved the same problem with the iron fist (yes there was a mini civil war giong on at the time).
I also seriously doubt the media reports about conditions in Libiya as any sane observer would after lies about conditions Kuwait in the 1990, Iraq etc. All to many times at the end you get that the "impartial witnesses" are anything but that.
And for all those with memory span of the goldfish it is also a reminder of how US selectively deals with the world. For all those who decrie the Sadaam's use of chemical warfare on Kurds and Iran i would like to do some research into who exactly held his back and vetoed all security concil resolutions dealing with this clear breach of customs and laws of landwarfare.
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mjc
Avoid printing any..
11:34 AM on 03/13/2011
Not only are we NOT going to join or lead a no-fly zone, we have made Qaddafi's military response inevitable. Our president has said, several times, "Qaddafi must go." And that he and his military leaders would certainly be charged with international war crimes. So do you think he's going to go anywhere...soon? It is a desperate situation for him as it is for those rebelling against him, and that usually leads to the most brutal and despicable warfare possible. Obama should have denounced the violence and shut up, unless he was planning a fly-over, which is described as an act of war. Rhetoric doesn't help in this situation.
01:35 AM on 03/13/2011
Apparently the facts conflict with the official policy of 'Wishful Thinking'. When this occurs, simply change the facts.
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Craig Koebelin
Gut feelings are usually gas
04:15 PM on 03/12/2011
I think Hillary Clinton regrets the lack of American response in 1994 to the Rwandan genocide, and I hope before Gaddafi's armored mercenaries and thugs unleash death on Benghazi at least some morsel of conscience beyond political calculation will compel or to force action or resign in protest, we know our President is not one partial to conflict and prone to think not act, I call on Secretary Clinton to remember the past dead in Rwanda and Bosnia and the difference between exercising the power you have for what is right, and living with yourself if you don't.
12:20 PM on 03/12/2011
People should be grateful for this. It's information that the public has a need to know. Many politicians will take their cue from polls and public opinion, even on matters where the public isn't informed. That's bad, and it's why the public must be as informed as possible, as soon as possible. So, now people know what is most likely to be the outcome, unless something is done to change the situation.

That doesn't mean that it's right to get involved, but knowing the consequences of the alternatives certainly helps, when you're trying to form an opinion.

As for the content of Clapper's remarks: Of course Gadhafi will win! Dictators who fall to popular uprisings, do so because they aren't willing to use the necessary force. Gadhafi doesn't seem to have that problem. To make things easier for Gadhafi, this isn't a guerrilla army he's fighting, and it's not terrain suited for guerrilla fighting. It's conventional desert warfare, which favors tanks, artillery, aircraft, and missiles. It's easy to locate the enemy, allowing you to him from a distance; the terrain is friendly to heavy vehicles, allowing you to roll in heavy equipment, or roll over enemy positions; ambush and sneak attack is difficult, taking away the most important tactics of the smaller force; the distances are great, necessitating efficient logistics, which demands organization and equipment, both of which the rebels lack... I could go on, but I won't.

I don't even think it'll take all that long.
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Alexander Cardosa
03:31 PM on 03/12/2011
So well said!
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nenitaB
Not the talk. What good result would it hav
09:57 AM on 03/12/2011
One life is precious not in war.. Let's not fan the small fire to turn into a inferno. WE fear of a natural calamity so why initiate man - made disaster . Give peace a chance.Give man a chance to exist in this planet earth.
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nenitaB
Not the talk. What good result would it hav
09:42 AM on 03/12/2011
I would say what if we just let Gaddafi solve its' internal problems without outside intervention. If he has the support of the majority of his people he'll prevail Seems he does not want to be anothr Saddam H. From what appeared in the aftermath more are against the Iraq war. I can say Saddam was vindicated and his words are credible.Let's observe and wait to meddle unless ubsolutely necessary.
06:11 PM on 03/13/2011
You are remarkably out of touch with the political and military realities in Libya. Gaddafi will "solve" its internal problems by slaughtering thousands of his own people. You don't need the support of "the people" if you have the support of enough of your military and heavy weapons to do the job. "The people" are irrelevant. Gaddafi's forces are already steamrolling the opposition forces and may well complete their work before a "no-fly" zone can be put into place. He will win not because he has popular support, but because he is willing to butcher as many men, women and children as necessary to keep him in power.

Your comparison to Iraq is ironic. Saddam H. was also willing to butcher as many men, women and children as necessary to stay in power. Just ask the Shiites slaughtered after we "encouraged" their uprising (we pulled a "Hungary" on them). The big difference here, and the one that shows how out of step the United States of America is with its foreign policy is that in Iraq, the people weren't asking us for any help. We invaded for other, fabricated reasons. In Libya, the common people DO want our help, and it appears that we will instead sit idly by, watch the slaughter and mouth frothy aphorisms like "give peace a chance".

No wonder we're not trusted in the Middle East.
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nenitaB
Not the talk. What good result would it hav
07:01 AM on 03/14/2011
Thanks for an enlightening reply. That's my own opinion and about Iraq war, I based it from almost 98 % I've talked to hated The almost never -ending war I may say and the results not thousands but millions deaths of people young and old . What did we get out of it. Who caused it, the initiator with false belief of this WMD thing that proved negative. I beleve history repeats itself . I read once about the banning of a book or article that reveals the thruth about 911 or Iraq war. I wish I know more about poitics. W need a thorough and brilliant assessment before any action lest regret later ,and it's late.
09:13 AM on 03/12/2011
Just because he didn't tell congress what they wanted to hear is no reason to demand a resignation. That sort of thinking has gotten us into more trouble than bad intelligence.
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Alexander Cardosa
03:31 PM on 03/12/2011
It is for the new type of america we live in. the Christian fantasy do nothing country we live in.
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nelson rivera
Disabled US Veteran hopes we can work together
04:32 AM on 03/12/2011
Mr. Clapper Know's Gaddafi Is killing his own Troop's and Burning Them Alive.Because they refuse to shoot unarmed Civilian's. Plus I here Gaddafi is using Poison Gas on Civilian's. Mr.Clapper Think's The World won't react in time to help the Freedom Fighter's of Libya. I guess Thousand's more will Die, unless they get help.
08:07 PM on 03/11/2011
I would hope that our Director of National Intelligence would tell the American public his true assessment of the situation in Libya, even if it it is not convenient for politicians. Why is this guy being lambasted for doing his job?
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DismayedRepub
300Mm/s Not just common sense, it’s the law
05:38 PM on 03/11/2011
Armor vs. flesh? The math is pretty simple.
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realitycitizen
Proud American, Proud Gentile
04:58 PM on 03/11/2011
It does not matter what Obama thinks or does not think.

Gaddafi will prevail because he has the support of the military and a large plurality of the Libyan people.

Obama is nothing more than an unpopular president trying to score points by hurting other people. Fun!
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
06:40 PM on 03/11/2011
If Gaddafi is so popular, why does he have to hire mercenaries to bomb his own people?
06:20 PM on 03/13/2011
Gaddafi does NOT have the support of "a large plurality" of the Libyan people, he has the support of the techno-military branches (air force, etc.) and mercenaries, all of whom are quite ready and willing to slaughter any opposition in their path. "Majority" is irrelevant. If you have
specific, superior information, spout it.

When you began to describe Obama, I thought you were talking about Bush, who hurt a lot more people than Obama ever has. You idea of "fun", then. . .
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giantsteps
04:54 PM on 03/11/2011
If Gaddafi does prevail then at what cost to Libya and the people.
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
05:21 PM on 03/11/2011
Very ugly reprisals, I fear.
04:48 PM on 03/11/2011
He has put his career on the line with that statement. It is surprising that in "careful speak" Washington, he didn't say something like 'Gaddafi could prevail, if.....' Seems like the position of DNI should not be given to retired military leaders.