Microsoft Exec: Tablets Are Just A Fad

Is Microsoft hoping tablets will go out of style?

Craig Mundie, Microsoft's global chief research and strategy officer, doesn't seem to have much faith in the future of the tablet.

"I don't know whether the big screen tablet pad category is going to remain with us or not," he said, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.

Mundie's beliefs run contrary to those of seemingly everyone else in the industry. Aside from the remarkable success of the iPad, virtually every hardware maker in the game has done their best to push out their own tablet. IDC, a tech research firm, predicts tablet sales will reach 42 million in 2011.

Mundie, however, believes that tablets will be stamped out as smartphones and laptops squeeze out the only-temporary tablet. Predicting that the smartphone will become "your most personal computer," with laptops as a "portable desk," Mundie noted that "mobile is something that you want to use while you're moving, and portable is something that you move and then use." The tablet, however, occupies the middle space.

"Personally I don't know whether that space will be a persistent one or not," he said.

His comments contradict not only the general mood of the personal computing industry, but the words of Microsoft founder Bill Gates, who ten years ago proclaimed that the tablet was "virtually without limits," going on to predict that within five years it would be the most popular kind of PC in America.

Of course, Gates was not quite accurate in his given timeframe--Microsoft's early tablets failed to find a foothold. But Microsoft doesn't seem too keen to try again this time round, despite a markedly different environment. The company has been slow to develop tablets up to par with the iPad or the Android-run tablets from others, and has yet to release an OS created specifically with the tablet in mind.

But maybe Microsoft can jump on the as-of-yet unrealized PC innovation Mundie does endorse:

"I believe the successor to the desktop is the room, that instead of thinking that the computer is just something on the desk that you go and sit in front of, [in the] future basically the whole room is the computer and you go in it," he said.

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Comments

[indiematrix]

06:03 AM on 04/04/2011

Ah so if Microsoft can't innovate they try and manipulate? Or deny the facts and pray that it goes away so the folks making a killing on the technology won't anymore? This is coming from a company that made the Zune, Vista, and Windows ME and we're supposed to believe the company that makes the xbox: a game console that only this year stopped hemoraging enough to turn a profit?!? Please. Microsoft will make something that doesn't suck when they start making vacuum cleaners. They took over yahoo and now even simple things such as looking at a profile don't work. MS has the ANTI-midas touch. So excuse me if I ignore them.

[SwingingFromCenter]

11:54 PM on 04/03/2011

Tablets are just a fad.  They become all the r.age every 10 years or so, and then they fade into oblivion as people realize they are too limited in what they can do.  This time around, they're no more functional than a good smartphone, but too big to fit in your pocket.  They're less functional than a netbook or a laptop, but not so much smaller that they're really any easier to carry around.

[JohnTheMac]

07:32 AM on 04/04/2011

ok, the problem is, you're comparing them to smartphones and laptops, but why?
It's a primary mistake a lot of people fall into, comparing for the purpose of replacement of an existing product.

[abbraxus]

07:15 PM on 04/03/2011

At one time, prior to Windows, Bill Gates declared
1) There was never a need for a computer to have more than 1 Meg of RAM.
2) IBM's OS/2 PC operating system was the future.

So I guess MS was wrong then and they are probably wrong now.

[Ukie3]

10:39 AM on 04/03/2011

Doesn't Microsoft have a dedicated tablet OS in development?

[JohnTheMac]

12:13 PM on 04/03/2011

They thought they did in 2010 at the CES, and they made a big deal about the Future and the HP Slate. It was ready to go:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=En7cdBhlrGU

2 weeks later the iPad was introduced. the slate looked so bad, it was aborted and they went back to the drawing board. Serious embarrassment. Now another MS clown can only sit back and call it a fad.
Look, just watch this Youtube video of Balmer talking about the "new form factors", then re-read this article. Huh? What happened? It's only a year's difference, so it isn't like going back to quotes from 1979 about 640k of RAM or something like that.

[JohnTheMac]

12:27 PM on 04/03/2011

They had a project, Courier, with a really cool animated demo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmIgNfp-MdI

It wasn't a working model, but looked like a design concept, or a lot of ideas.
A lot of people here said they "wanted one!".
It was a well made flashy demo, but if you watch it, you can't help but think how EASY the animated woman makes everything look, but if you had the thing in front of yourself, you'd be lost! Everything seems to be easy and at her fingertips. "I'll just pull up the web" or "pull up the address book", etc. Wait a minute? I don't see the difference in how she did those things? Is it listening to her give those commands? LOL . Sometimes you drag an address to the right screen and it makes a map, other times it gives people permissions for the content on the right. No concrete idea how you make those things happen.
Apple sweats out those kind of details, like how to implement Copy/Paste without falling back to mice/styli/or keyboards. All in, full commitment to full multitouch IO. That's the only way to do it, because half efforts avail nothing. Another company would have intro'd the iPhone and been squeemish about this "cool little virtual keyboard, but when that fails, don't worry, we included a rickety slider too!" (because we have no faith in the quality of our virtual keyboard)
Apple likes to make the breaks clean.

[DaMojo]

10:22 AM on 04/03/2011

Not buying a tablet. I'm waiting on the portable device like the one in "Red Planet". A thin, flexible, roll up touchscreen that weighs nothing.

[GwenEcho]

08:51 AM on 04/04/2011

Agreed - I don't see a long term future for the tablet. small device that can do everything with the thin roll up screen is the holy grail. One device for everything.

[GODISMYSHADOW]

01:22 PM on 04/14/2011

Would you need to pull the big screen out of your smartphone to make a call, or would it still have the little screen?

[jimmyjones22]

11:17 PM on 04/02/2011

Considering i can do everything with a tablet that i can with my phone...why bother?

[ManuOB1]

07:37 PM on 04/02/2011

My iPad and iPhone allow me to switch between various alphabets (Korean, German, Italian, English) by a simple touch of a button. A hard QWERTY keyboard is thus crippling by comparisin.

[jimmyjones22]

11:22 PM on 04/02/2011

hard keyboards are still vastly superior when you have to write a large amount, but for quick mails between languages, its nice. I have to swap between Japanese and English since i live in japan, and it's really helpful.

Wouldn't type up a 20 page history report with it, but for anything else it's fine.

[KarateKid]

09:11 AM on 04/03/2011

With an iPad, you can use the bluetooth feature and use the wireless keyboard. Most of the iPad users I know do that.

[Nick Montana]

08:15 PM on 04/03/2011

Great. So can my Android touch keyboard software (Swiftkey) and even my hardware keyboard can utilize foreign languages I sometimes need to use to type. I prefer a QWERTY keyboard over a touch one because they're not even comparable. Just because the iPhone won't ever have one (thus you won't) doesn't mean you have to put it down. Sour grapes.

[JohnTheMac]

07:42 AM on 04/04/2011

There's lots of iPhone keyboard add-ons working as sliders or flip cases.
Interesting designs, but I really have no need for one. No sour grapes here, just enjoying the iPhone as is, thinner, compact, no sliding mechanisms to wear or work loose. Here's one,but there's plenty more:
http://www.thinkgeek.com/gadgets/cellphone/e66e/?itm=iphone_keyboard&rkgid=274523371&cpg=ogusb1&source=google_usb&gclid=CNLD84TjgqgCFYx_5QodqVfuqg

[Dallas May]

01:35 PM on 04/02/2011

I agree-ish. The tablet as we know it is a fad. It's the Blutooth headset of 2011. But, many of the innovations that have been developed with the tablet will remain.

[jmad]

10:58 AM on 04/02/2011

The 27% detractors probably don't own a tablet and would probably reject even a free unit.

[jimmyjones22]

11:27 PM on 04/02/2011

My android phone does everything a tablet does, I'm looking for a why to justify one but it's hard to, especially when every site has an excellent mobile version, and the speed and memory of smart phones is comparable to tablets. I think the future is more towards a device that you hole in the palm of your hand, though they still have a way to go.

[littlebrowngirl]

10:39 AM on 04/02/2011

They had a tablet years ago.

[JohnTheMac]

03:53 PM on 04/02/2011

And it never even made it to "Fad" status.
Wouldn't most people keep their mouth shut?

[Mitchman57]

09:57 AM on 04/03/2011

The 'fad' status is in the connectivity, the social networking sites and texting, not the device. We didn't have 3G or 4G yet and free WiFi at Starbucks wasn't a selling point yet.

MS tried it too soon. So did Apple (Newton, RIP 1998), by the way. Laugh at MS if you want to, but be sure to remember the Apple 'fad' flops too.

[JohnUSA]

11:24 PM on 04/01/2011

o well, what's new. Bill Gates was happy with 640kB.

[iamvalid]

08:44 AM on 04/02/2011

So what? Steve Ballmer is more than happy with 640K neurons.

[llibsetag]

08:35 PM on 04/01/2011

WTF? Then WHY is Microsoft spending MILLIONS to get their "New & Improved" Windows 8 OS out of the gate which will include NEW GUI for "mobile devices" INCLUDING TABLETS?

Oh I see... Since the "Gates TAB" ( Laptop with rotating screen that you could use a stylus on...i.e. giant PALM Pilot...i.e. giant Apple NEWTON PDA from decades ago) BOMBED because it did not work well, was WAY EXPENSIVE CEO TOY BOMBED!

NOOOO....don't use the iPad & iPad wannabes clones because WE (Microsoft) do not exist on them yet....But when WE put out Win8 & spend MILLIONS on advertisements about how we invented the Tablet Platform ( Slate ), then a REVOLUTION will happen and everyone will discover how "innovative" we are. THEN TABLETS will not be a fad.

LAME EPIC FAIL again by Microsoft. Too little, too late, green with jealousy & red with rage that they missed the boat & are now playing hurry up, catch up with Apple, Android, etc...TABS.

Microsoft : Always late to the party & then all they become is a big party pooper!

[JohnTheMac]

12:30 PM on 04/03/2011

They're hoping to quell any desire people have to get a pad until they have some devices in the market. Then, Pads will be the neatest thing since slice bread

[Keyop]

05:29 PM on 04/01/2011

I dont like greasy grimy hands on computer screens. Laptops for me thank you.

[JohnTheMac]

09:02 AM on 04/02/2011

You could wash your hands, or the tablet screen, a lot easier than a laptop keyboard!

[bryanzth]

12:29 PM on 04/02/2011

You're one of those always pulling hands away from poking and pointing on the screen...

BZ.

[Marioth]

04:57 PM on 04/01/2011

As an iPad, no they would not last. iPads are essentially moving glossy advertisements designed to get you to buy more products from Apple and Apple partners.

But this is not the future of tablets. I have seen quad-core tablets with a flip-out full-sized keyboard based on Android. Many variations on this theme are possible. With language-ready interface with highs-peed anywhere on a big screen and its desktops that have to worry.

[JohnTheMac]

09:06 AM on 04/02/2011

"iPads are essentiall­y moving glossy advertisem­ents designed to get you to buy more products from Apple and Apple partners."

based on that, TVs are just a fad too?

[Marioth]

12:00 PM on 04/02/2011

Why, yes, TV is fading in case you haven't noticed. A couple of my friends shut off their cable completely. Don't need it.

[builderman55]

04:04 PM on 04/01/2011

Well, since this comes from Microsoft, I guess I'll just throw my iPad into the garbage. Sigh.....