iPad Predicted To Dominate Tablet Market Through 2015: Gartner

Recent analysis by Gartner shows the iPad dominating the tablet market past 2011 and into 2015, though it faces a tough opponent in the Android platform.

In 2011, Gartner predicts that 69 percent of tablets sold worldwide to consumers will be built on Apple's iOS platform. By 2015, the Apple tablets will still command a respectable 47 percent of the media tablet market, but Android will be catching up.

According to Gartner's estimates, tablets powered by Google's Android OS will become increasingly popular. While Android tablets will account for 20 percent of the global market in 2011, that figure will increase to 39 percent in 2015.

As for the tablet market overall, Gartner forecasts a veritable boom, with sales reaching 69,780,000 units in 2011, up from 17,610,000 units in 2010. The wave of success will continue through 2015, according to Gartner's figures, which peg tablet sales at 294,093,000 units by 2015.

Take a look at the chart to see how MeeGo, WebOS, QNX and other competing platforms will fare next to Apple and Android tablets through 2015, according to Gartner.

How do you think Gartner's predictions will hold up? Weigh in on our quick poll (below).

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Comments

[Bali Boy]

07:12 PM on 04/12/2011

I'm willing to bet that: By 2015, both IPad and Droid will be kicked in the end-quarter by something new....by some other company.

[wsuvtx]

02:16 PM on 04/12/2011

Does it really matter who dominates who? Some people will use the iOS, some will use Android, some will use Windows. It does not really matter. Why is it such a big deal with who dominates who?

[mightbesane]

12:24 PM on 04/12/2011

I'm still waiting for a real technological breakthrough. As I've said in another thread, the tablet is is like an audio cassette tape - a more convenient version of existing technology (magnetic tape). When we moved from analogue to digital, the audio cassette was doomed. When we move to cloud-generated, heads-up, interactive displays and voice recognition, the tablet will go away. If technology accelerates as in the past, it just might happen in my lifetime.

[Rich Phitzwell]

09:46 AM on 04/12/2011

The answer is C: The isheen will be winning in 2015

[any mouse]

02:54 AM on 04/12/2011

Gartner is WAY OFF on this.

Device markets can only support 2.5 operating environments. Any other operating environment just dies due to miniscule market share.

In the long term, Apple's aversion to licensing their operating environment always dooms it to second or third place in the market since the other operating environments get licensed to far more devices.

Just based on those two market proven concepts, Gartner can NOT be right plus ther are several other reasons:

- It totally ignores Microsoft. MS already has two versions of Windows that can be used to build a pad identical to the iPad today. The only mystery is why hardware vendors have not done it yet.

- It ignores the multiplier effect of having Android on many devices.

- It assumes Meego will exist past next week (the key partners have abandoned it already).

- It assumes that WebOS will as good as Android and that HP will license it to the whole world and HP will continue to sink huge sums into development with little revenue (the CEO that purchased WebOS is long gone).

- While QNX is an OK real-time embedded system OS, it has miniscule market share and is losing more every day to Android and embedded Linux. QNX does not have the financial strength to keep up with Android and MS.

The bottom line is this is completely BOGUS

Over time the pad market will be (1) Android (2) Apple (3) MS with the rest gone.

[J0E1]

06:40 PM on 04/11/2011

No one can predict the tablet market into 2015.  He may as well have pulled those numbers out of his arse.  All he has to go by is 2 generations of ipads and a couple of half azzed android tablets.  There isn't even a WebOS tablet out yet.

[666dorado]

12:32 AM on 04/12/2011

if he had predicted android ahead of iOS, you would have orgazzzmed all over yourself.

[CaptainObvvious]

06:19 PM on 04/11/2011

The tablet market can't be directly compared to the smartphone market or even the MP3 player market.

People NEED phones. People are committed to a carrier and when the time comes they get a major subsidy on an upgrade for something they NEED. So the average Mom needs a new phone and see that for $50 they can get the phone they NEED and have it do other cool stuff too.

The tablet market is different. These aren't something everyone is going to buy anyway and for cheap can get an Android. These are something people are going to buy if they NEED. So the numbers aren't going to get as padded by cheap to free devices.

People aren't stuck to carriers on family plans that don't have the iOS device so they upgrade to what they can... There aren't going to be cheap or free tablets...

This is a MUCH different market and the advantages Android had in the smartphone market don't exist here.

They will get some great traction in the cheap tablet market space but even then people who are going to spend the money will likely spend a little more to get an iPad.

Couple that with the massive head start and the fact that tablet is synonymous with iPad... They have a HUGE hill to climb with no assistance... Training wheels are off.

[Dan Pierce]

06:33 PM on 04/11/2011

For those same reasons(no subsidies, not needing to sign with a particular carrier), there has been no Android competition to the iPod touch. The iPod touch has been around for ~3.5 years and I have yet to see a viable Android competitor.

[J0E1]

06:41 PM on 04/11/2011

That's because they don't exist.  Android is a smart phone OS, not an MP3 player OS with phone call capabilities.

[any mouse]

03:00 AM on 04/12/2011

There is no technical or financial reason why there is no competition to the iTouch. Android (as well as Win CE) would work just fine.

It appears that the device makers have looked at the overall sales of the iTouch and have decided that the total market is too small to be worth the bother of doing even minimal development.

device makers are in the business to make money and if the market is too small, even getting a decent share of the market means the profit is just not worth the bother. All device makers look for the maximum return on the least investment.

[redmaple]

05:49 PM on 04/11/2011

Right now the tablet craze is the novelty. Eventually, if people use it more for productivity than entertainment, tablets will need to have a certain compability with Windows (the main productivity platform).

The market will probably split in two, entertainment tablets (ios, android, webOs?) and productivity tablets (windows, android, rim).

[CaptainObvvious]

06:04 PM on 04/11/2011

They can be one and the same.

Apps have Windows comparability... Not all of them but the ones that need it.

To think the tablets aren't going to evolve as the market does is naive.

[any mouse]

03:06 AM on 04/12/2011

While tablets are OK devices for consuming information they are miserable for information generation.

Essentially pads are very expensive readers (information display devices).

Thumb board are OK for text messages and extremely short email, they are terrible for real content creation. Ideally, small devices should be able to use voice as input, but that requires massive CPU power and memory space, both of which drain the battery.

I see no future for pad except as very expensive readers and as devices designed as readers come down in price, pads will die off.

[lionheart21]

05:13 PM on 04/11/2011

Just note: you can't use the current smartphone market to graph onto the Tablet market. The reason why - Android is getting lots of help with the Carriers who a) push sales of the Android phone and subsidies the sale. For Tablets, that won't happen. People don't need to buy a carrier or service to buy a Tablet - unlike a Smartphone. Here Android is at a dis-advantage cause Apple has their network (ie Apple Stores) to push the iPad while other Android Tablet makers must go thru 3rd party channels - channels that won't push their product like carriers will.

[jt1980]

04:59 PM on 04/11/2011

While the road does look clear for Apple, it's this kind of prediction that usually spells troubles for a company. The tech market is too fluid for a company to keep its dominance long.

[Tazirai]

10:57 PM on 04/11/2011

Yep I remember how Sony, Panasonic, Phillips, etc used to all dominate. Today they are just parts of the cog. Apple is at the top, then soon someone else, then someone else, etc.

[clarke90]

04:39 PM on 04/11/2011

The problem i find with apple is there is very little variety, which will be its downfall.

[jsrl317]

05:26 PM on 04/11/2011

LOL! File that with the other statements made about Apple over the years:
-Too expensive
-Not open enough
-Small marketshare means it's only a matter of time
-They will never beat Microsoft
-Businesses do not use Macs
-We may be seeing the last of Apple (when their stock price was $7 in 1997).

I could go on an on. Suffice it to say all of these were proven untrue. Apple's customers have a crazy brand loyalty everyone but Southwest Airlines covets.

I'm just sayin'

[JasonMcl]

04:29 PM on 04/11/2011

If this does indeed last a whole year it won't be much longer after that.

There are Android tabs out and coming out that match and outpace the iPad in everything but games, not all apps, just games. Most Android users will find Android's selection to be just fine though.

Aside from that, it is only a matter of marketing. Honeycomb is better designed for a tablet than iOS is currently. People can write tablet specific apps for Android but they are not automatically necessary because of the way Android is designed to adapt to different resolutions.

Android phones started slow, (most people don't know what the G1 is), but anyone who followed the headlines in 2010 knows that it took less than a year to not only catch iOS but overtake it in market share, and that is BEFORE the xperia play, Atrix, Galaxy S2 and the Bionic.

Give Android tablets enough time and the same will happen.

[Matt Raven]

05:17 PM on 04/11/2011

What I find amazing is that for decades I have refused to own an Apple computer because it is impossible to play games on them. 99% of video games are Windows only, so I had never ever ever planned to buy a single Apple product.

Now, the iPad has the best games for a portable device, and I have two of them. I use my iPad for 90% of my gaming now, and my PC sits gathering dust.

How did Apple go from totally anti-gaming to the gaming king? I just dunno!

[JasonMcl]

10:58 PM on 04/11/2011

Serious gaming still happens on desktop machines. PC's and Macs. But the iPad is great for casual and single player gaming on the go.

Android has a lot of good native games, especially RPG's.

The Xperia play (Android playstation phone) has almost a hundred dedicated games already and is going to be a huge platform by the time Sony is done with it.

But I would love to see Eternal Legacy, World of Goo, Plants vs Zombies and some of my other iOS favorites ported over. It will happen eventually as the tablets gain more market share.

Nothing on a tablet compare to Left 4 Dead Versus (PC and Mac) just yet... but there may come a time soon when it can.

[CaptainObvvious]

06:09 PM on 04/11/2011

You can't compare the smartphone market as if it was the same thing as the tablet market. It isn't at all.

You people will never understand that specs don't make a machine. It is the total package from speed to design to flow... Everything. Nothing beats the iPad at the entire package.

Honeycomb is a mess. They have some serious work to do.

Android doesn't have carriers, contracts and subsidies helping it out... This is a much much different fight that doesn't have the many things Android had helping it in the smartphone market helping it here.

[JasonMcl]

10:42 PM on 04/11/2011

"Honeycomb is a mess. They have some serious work to do."

Have you used it? What about it did you find messy in your own personal experience?
My honeycomb device seems to be working just fine.

"Android doesn't have carriers, contracts and subsidies helping it out"

The Xoom is subsidized on a 2 year contract. Other tablets will follow suit.

[LightShadow62]

03:30 PM on 04/11/2011

With the generous help of free marketing on HuffPo

[Onutz]

06:40 PM on 04/11/2011

((With the generous help of free marketing on HuffPo))

.... and Oprah, and Jimmy Fallon, and Craig Ferguson, and Stephan Colbert and.....
The list goes on and on.....
What company "wouldn't" want this level of viral endorsements?

[PhillyKing]

03:24 PM on 04/11/2011

Yeah, i can see that.. the manufacturers of the Android tabs cant seem to compete on price or hype yet.