Huffpost Politics

Statistically Significant 'Outliers'

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Chris Good notes that poll respondents aren't particularly good at predicting the future.

Pat Caddell says Rep. Ryan's budget is leading Republicans "off the cliff."

Alan Abramowitz writes of a decline in union members as a Democratic constituency.

Isaac Chotiner flags the relationship between Palin's favorable and interracial marriage among Mississippi Republicans.

Ron Brownstein reports that Obama's is struggling with white voters; Peter Kirsanow says his approval among black Americans is declining as well.

James Pethokoukis explains
the importance of income growth to Obama's re-election (via Nyhan).

Marc Ambinders finds five advantages and five disadvantages for Obama in 2012.

Harry Enten takes apart David Hill's five items pointing to an Obama loss (via Nyhan).

Jim Geraghty wants larger sample sizes before he believes Trump's poll numbers.

Tom Jensen breaks down Trump's numbers in PPP's polls.

Ann Selzer sees
Iowa wobbling, not lurching, to the right.

Paul Ryan drew inspiration for his budget video from Hans Rosling's data graphics presentation (via Lundry).

Robert Groves testifies that Census 2020 will include internet-based questionnaire options.

Good Politics graphs what Congress would look like if it really represented America (via Foley).

xkcd finds a statistically significant relationship between green jelly beans and acne.