Chris Good notes that poll respondents aren't particularly good at predicting the future.
Pat Caddell says Rep. Ryan's budget is leading Republicans "off the cliff."
Alan Abramowitz writes of a decline in union members as a Democratic constituency.
Isaac Chotiner flags the relationship between Palin's favorable and interracial marriage among Mississippi Republicans.
Ron Brownstein reports that Obama's is struggling with white voters; Peter Kirsanow says his approval among black Americans is declining as well.
James Pethokoukis explains the importance of income growth to Obama's re-election (via Nyhan).
Jim Geraghty wants larger sample sizes before he believes Trump's poll numbers.
Robert Groves testifies that Census 2020 will include internet-based questionnaire options.
xkcd finds a statistically significant relationship between green jelly beans and acne.