NBA Playoff Preview: Lakers vs. Mavericks

Three people I spoke with this weekend tried to convince me that the Lakers were a great match-up for Dallas. And three times I scoffed at such a ridiculous notion. In this playoff preview, I explain why.

(2) LAL vs. (4) Dallas

There’s no question LA is in a funk. The speed New Orleans' players -- specifically Chris Paul -- displayed against the Lakers led people to say the same thing they’ve been saying for years: The Lakers are too old and fragile. Kobe can’t carry them anymore.

In the first playoff round last season, Oklahoma City caused similar problems for L.A. But Dallas simply doesn’t have the personnel to challenge the Lakers on speed and athleticism. This is a jump-shooting Mavericks team that can get hot and maybe steal one or two games, but doesn’t have the necessary skills and talent to beat L.A. four times.

The Lakers are most vulnerable to quick point guards. Jason Kidd -- for all his greatness -- is not the burner of old. He is a far more cerebral player now, relying on pick-and-rolls and angles, but not speed. Jason Terry will score, but he’ll do so off catch-and-shoot situations and pull-up jumpers, not blowing by people and finishing in the lane.

And what L.A. lacks in speed among its own players, it makes up for in depth –- specifically the number of players who can guard Dirk Nowitzki. Matt Barnes, Lamar Odom, Kobe -- Phil Jackson will use all three guys and others to mix up looks and force Dirk to adjust accordingly. The key for any great scorer is to find a rhythm and stay in that rhythm. When you’re forced to do so against a number of quality defenders who all pose different challenges, you then have to recapture a new flow every time.

Let’s not forget the stellar play of the Lakers’ front-line production this year, especially against Dallas. In the three regular season games they played, Andrew Bynum averaged 16.7 points and 11.7 rebounds, while shooting over 70 percent, his best percentage against any opponent he played more than once. And while Pau Gasol struggled against New Orleans, he won’t against the Mavs. He averaged 20.3 points and shot 54.5 percent this season against the Mavs.

And as good as Terry, J.J. Barea and Rodrigue Beaubois can be, they also limit Dallas’ defensive flexibility because of their lack of size -- a severe problem matching up against a Lakers team that features a slew of tall and strong wing players. Kobe and the hot-shooting Ron Artest should be very comfortable in this series.

Prediction: Lakers in five.

Email me or ask me questions about the NBA playoffs or anything else on Twitter at @206Child for my upcoming mailbag.

Comments

[carester]

09:10 AM on 05/10/2011

Yeah! LAKERS IN FIVE! :-)

[R R R]

09:45 PM on 05/08/2011

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!

[LaughingMan]

05:52 PM on 05/08/2011

Literally, shaking my head at this article.

**chuckle**

[LaughingMan]

12:58 AM on 05/07/2011

>>>"This is a jump-shooting Mavericks team that can get hot and maybe steal one or two games, but doesn’t have the necessary skills and talent to beat L.A. four times."

Ouch!!

Well,.... this is awkward........and embarrassing.

Hey Jordan, is it too late to get those lottery picks?
I really really need to know what numbers not to pick.

[jackwilliamsonegoodpost]

12:58 AM on 05/07/2011

Now that I think about it, changing your headline from "Dallas is Doomed" when they went up 2-0 was the best prediction you've made all season.

[Dredd]

03:27 PM on 05/06/2011

Lakers in five? When, next year?

[LaughingMan]

05:52 PM on 05/08/2011

There's a lockout next year, so maybe he really meant the year after next.

Oh wait, maybe he meant Lakers win this series in 5......as in 5 years time.

[jackwilliamsonegoodpost]

11:32 AM on 05/05/2011

Hey Jordan, why did you change your headline? Wasn't it "Mavericks don't stand a chance" or something like that?

[LaughingMan]

12:42 PM on 05/05/2011

I noticed that too.

This is almost as bad as his other article discussing the Eastern conference final involving the now down 0-2 Celtics versus the just-lost-homecourt-advantage Chicago Bulls without bothering to mention the Heat even once.

He's becoming the stuff of Legend on these sports pages with his predictions.

[jackwilliamsonegoodpost]

01:56 PM on 05/05/2011

Hey, more power to him. I think it's funny. But if you're not going to change the incorrect seeding (Dallas is a 3 not a 4) why change the headline?

You made your prediction dude, stand by it! You could have punked us all if LA ended up winning. Now it looks like you're going back on it.

[LaughingMan]

04:56 AM on 05/05/2011

Hey Jordan, I'm sorry but did you mean that the Lakers would actually win one game?
Or any game for that matter?

I'm a bit confused. lol

Oh, and do you know what this week's lottery numbers are?
I have to ask, to know what not to pick.

[jackwilliamsonegoodpost]

10:53 AM on 05/04/2011

I just saw this. lol

Do you know how many real sports writers there are out of work? Heck, how many sports fans there are out of work. Couldn't this place find one of them to write about sports?

[tanya11111]

10:12 AM on 05/04/2011

this guy is as bad at sports predictions as me. somebody bet him quick.

[uoftexgreg95]

10:36 AM on 05/03/2011

Hey Jordan, I wanted to read your article but you don't even know what seed the Mavericks are. They are the (3) not the (4) and have the same record as the Lakers. So learn a little about the teams and then get back with us.

[frank day]

08:37 AM on 05/03/2011

Jordan had better get HP to pull down these old predictions faster.

[LaughingMan]

05:53 PM on 05/08/2011

Too late.

[carester]

08:01 AM on 05/03/2011

Well, dear, Jordan. At least you got the others right...wait a minute! The Magic is coming :-)

[Seafarer61]

03:22 AM on 05/03/2011

Stay away from the casinos Jordan if your predictions continue at this rate.

[UtahSlim]

02:43 AM on 05/03/2011

OK - only 4 more to go.