Obama Reelection 71 Percent Likely After Bin Laden Kill, Says Irish Bookmaker

More bad news for the fledgling Republican presidential field.

Ireland’s largest bookmaker slashed the odds on President Barack Obama winning reelection from 4-7 to 2-5 thanks to his triumph in hunting down and killing Osama bin Laden.

Paddy Power said the incumbent now has the shortest odds of securing a second term since he took office in January of 2009. Obama now has a 71 percent probability of winning four more years in the White House.

The company recalculated its odds based on scores of bets that rolled in Monday morning after news broke that the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks was no more.

“Recent events in Pakistan have literally whipped punters into a frenzy with more bets placed on President Obama in the past 24-hours that in the past six months,” said company spokesman Ken Robertson.

Among GOP contenders, former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the next best odds of winning the 2012 election, at 10-1. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is at 12-1 odds.

Alaska Gov.-turned-TV star Sarah Palin, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Gen. David Petraeus -- who recently accepted a new job as the next head of the CIA -- each are pegged as 16-1 candidates. That is better than former Govs. Tim Pawlenty (Minn.), at 18-1, or Mike Huckabee (Ark.), a 22-1 shot.

Here are the other GOP long-shots, according the Irish bookie (who may not be as familiar with the more provincial political newcomers):

Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), 28-1
Rep. Ron Paul (Texas), 33-1
Former Gov. Jon Huntsman (Utah), 33-1
Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), 33-1
Real estate mogul Donald Trump, 33-1
Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), 33-1
Gov. Chris Christie (N.J.), 50-1
Former Gov. Gary Johnson (N.M.), 50-1
Ex-New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, 66-1
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (Penn.), 66-1
Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), 66-1
Sen. Scott Brown (Mass.), 100-1
Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.), 100-1
Businessman Herman Cain, 125-1
Activist Fred Karger, 150-1

At 1,000-1 odds, the longest shots were heiress Paris Hilton and Laura Bush, the wife of former President George W. Bush.

 

 

Comments

[ajaske]

04:25 PM on 05/05/2011

Wonder what the vig comes out to when you pool all the candidates. The only chance the Republicans have is to destroy the economy with government spending cuts - they are, indeed, trying their level best.

[Paul1963]

05:15 PM on 05/04/2011

I just love my people, we bet on anything. Paddy Power is well respected bookmaking house in Europe that makes solid Morning Lines.

BTW: The Irish LOVE Obama: O'Leary O'Riley O'Hare O'Hara There's no one as Irish as Barack Obama. The link below is to a video for that song, It's hillarious and G Rated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HplZ_taHXLM

[ajaske]

04:27 PM on 05/05/2011

LOL - had a Japanese descent friend named Oniski in college who always claimed she was Irish! Just like O'bama! If he dyes his hair red, he's a shoo-in!

[libertyanne]

03:07 PM on 05/04/2011

Erin go Braugh!

[flinthfp]

04:15 PM on 05/04/2011

Correction .....Erin go Bra.less

[Danmcc455]

03:06 PM on 05/04/2011

Hmm, can you make bets on this in Ireland? It'd be pretty funny to turn a political race into a horse race, in one aspect. Of course the smart money is on Obama though, the smart money is almost always with an incumbent.

[flinthfp]

04:28 PM on 05/04/2011

Sure you can bet on almost anything, However, they are 100 yards behind Wall Street !!!!!

[Jim Marusak]

06:30 PM on 05/04/2011

yea, but at least you have full ideas on what you're betting on with this odds-maker or the track.

[Tobby2k9]

12:51 PM on 05/04/2011

Isn't Bill O'rielly Irish? Someone tell him please. I'm pretty sure he won't go against his compadres.

[flinthfp]

04:13 PM on 05/04/2011

Na, he is a typical "red coat" !

[tibetanterrier]

12:17 PM on 05/04/2011

A thread not moderated... woohoooo!!!

The gop field: adulterer, shape shifting mor mon, preacher with weight issues, pawpawboring, a quitter from alaska, bankrupt business man with bad hair and an old man from texas

[flinthfp]

04:12 PM on 05/04/2011

don't forget her other fine qualities ... a Successionist ....Alaska Independence Party

[johnnygoodwud]

09:54 AM on 05/04/2011

gee that's to bad. thanks for making my day

[Billy Fritts]

05:17 PM on 05/04/2011

Thank you GWBush and the CIA for makeing it possible to take out Osama Bin Laden--While you was President you made it possible--Thank you brave NAVY SEALS for your service--I know if you could run for President again you would be elected--We owe you alot---

[riverhouse]

07:35 AM on 05/04/2011

It's a lost cause for the GOP, given their anti American positions and the wreckage they plan for the American middle class. Their only support will come from the racists, the tin foil hat nutters, and the billionaire CEOs that aforementioned American middle class bailed out of bankruptcy.

[3fingerbrown]

07:01 AM on 05/04/2011

There's an excellent 2008 HuffPo story on this topic, link below. It contains all kinds of interesting insights, like this from handicapper Ray Paulick: "Gamblers have more experience with cheaters. They take voter fraud into their metrics. Polls don't. Nor do polls take into account how each state's secretary of state factors in, or systems within a state designed to eliminate voters; Jimmy the Greek called these "the intangibles."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-thomson/the-most-accurate-electio_b_140181.html

[RepublicansAreFail]

05:15 AM on 05/04/2011

No one takes Republicans seriously anymore. All Republicans have left are their lemmings who follow their true leader..Ayn Rand.

[John Kelley]

04:33 AM on 05/04/2011

Gererally people bet their money where they have a have relatively serious intent to win. So I actually trust these betting odds more than opinion polls. In 2008 the betting odds were far more accurate than polls in predicting the Presidential winner.

Prior to now, I figured President Obama had a good chance at victory by the simple fact that the GOP has no capable candidate to beat him. If you don't have a viable alternative to the status quo, voters generally go with what's already there no matter how mediocre the performance. That's why incumbents always have an advantage in the voting booth.

The opposition has to have an extraordinary challenger in extraordinary conditions to beat the incumbent, and the GOP simply doesn't have that candidate or those conditions for 2012. In fact, the GOP has done more to handicap their candidate by championing unpopular proposals to dismantle Medicare, attack unions, and defund Planned Parenthood, along with giving tacit support to birther conspiracies.

Furthermore, the President has done enough positive things to ensure a passable show on election day. The passing of healthcare reform and the killing of Osama Bin Laden along with a lack of scandal, e.g. Lewinsky-gate or Watergate, give the President a reliable resume to ride on for reelection. Combine those factors with his well-documented ability to successfully manage a national political campaign and generate massive fund raising, and you have a formidable competitor in 2012.

So where would you place your bet?

[Mister C]

06:00 AM on 05/04/2011

I always bet on Black......He's got my vote!

[3fingerbrown]

07:16 AM on 05/04/2011

Follow the money.

The billion+ bucks in Obama's war chest dwarfs the fund-raising efforts of any of the potential GOP challengers. Romney is the best fund-raiser in the bunch, but he has nothing like a billion dollars (if he did, believe me, we'd be hearing all about it).

The bounce O gets from the bin Laden story will attract even more money. And the greater the disparity in money between O and his likely opponents, the harder it becomes for the opponents to attract money (Money loves money, as my granddad told me).

Add this to the reasons you give, and I'd say the bookies have it right -- they usually do. Unlike pollsters, they don't get paid when they're wrong.

[msbeal]

02:14 AM on 05/04/2011

I'm just afraid that the Republicans will smarten up and concede the 2012 election to save money towards 2016.

[wwilcox]

12:52 AM on 05/04/2011

I have an Intrade account but have never funded it. I am going to do so now. Even at 10-1, betting against Romney is a sure thing, just not very lucrative (better than a savings account guaranteed by the FDIC though). The remainder have such low odds the return wouldn't pay for the electricity it takes to turn on my computer.

[Dan1902]

12:39 AM on 05/04/2011

Republicans in all races are in trouble as long as the underlying theme to their party platform is-------STARVE THE BEAST WHILE THE PLUTOCRATS FEAST!!

[goodog]

12:31 AM on 05/04/2011

Remains to be seen whether the past week was just a PR fluke or the reelection campaign has finally realized that it has to create the narrative instead of ignoring it (as if the media's going to act responsibly).