New York Special Election Becomes Referendum On GOP Medicare Proposal

BUFFALO, N.Y. — The contest to fill a vacant U.S. House seat in upstate New York was tightening up in a special election that was supposed to be an easy win for Republicans. Instead, it has become a referendum on the party's controversial plan to transform Medicare, the government health plan for seniors.

A Siena College poll published Saturday showed Democrat Kathy Hochul with a slight lead over Republican Jane Corwin, 42-38 percent, in the race to succeed Republican Rep. Chris Lee, who resigned in February after shirtless photos he sent to a woman were published online. Wealthy tea party candidate Jack Davis had 12 percent support – far behind but still drawing enough to affect a close race in Tuesday's special election.

The 26th Congressional District, which covers a swath of rural and suburban towns between Buffalo and Rochester, is among the most conservative in the state and one of only four that favored Republican John McCain over President Barack Obama in 2008. But Corwin, a state assemblywoman and a multimillionaire, has seen her lead evaporate in recent weeks after expressing support for a plan crafted by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., to strip billions from Medicare and recast it as a voucher program. Corwin said she supported the Ryan plan as a way to ensure the solvency of Medicare for future generations.

Hochul, the Erie County clerk, quickly seized on Corwin's position and cast herself as the protector of Medicare in a district with a large population of voters over 55. Her television ads have hammered the issue even as Corwin has tried to recalibrate her position, suggesting she'd favor tweaking and changing the Ryan plan if elected.

Siena Poll Director Steve Greenberg said that voters in the district cited jobs, Medicare and the federal deficit as top issues and, "for those who say Medicare is the most important issue, voters are overwhelmingly supporting Hochul."

Davis' candidacy has further complicated matters for Republicans in a district that has many tea party supporters. Local GOP leaders tried to make hay of an encounter between Davis and a videographer Davis appeared to shove after the videographer taunted him for refusing to appear in a debate with Hochul and Corwin. The GOP tried to use the video to paint Davis as a bully.

But it backfired when the videographer turned out to be Corwin's chief of staff.

The race has drawn attention and more than $2 million from both national parties and several independent groups. Both Ryan and New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie have endorsed Corwin, while former President Bill Clinton recorded a phone call for Hochul and New York's popular Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo released an ad supporting her.

___

Fouhy reported from New York City.

Comments

[Lee Andrew]

10:20 PM on 05/24/2011

DEMS my friends and you are, this is not a bellwether for anything. All elections are local.

Get good candidates and not pasts middle-aged balding hetero christian males.

[FreedToChoose]

11:06 AM on 05/24/2011

The secondary effect, for me, is that two bright women--of different political stripe--are the frontrunners. The old white male--which I am--is eating dust, actually so far back by now he may not know he's out of the race (When you're that far behind the times it's easy to think you're leading).

Women in charge. This is the new wave for America. They are naturally compassionate. They are more cooperative than competitive. They are more interested in learning. They represent the majority of registered voters. They control most of the wealth. Viva la femme!

[softvoice]

09:31 AM on 05/24/2011

Jane Corwin may squeek out a win in this election but I sure hope not. The Republican plan to make the American people believe the only way to pay down our debt is to end social security and medicare, medicaid and preserve the Bush tax break for the rich, is not going over so well. Republicans are wrong to think taking away neccessary safeguards like social security is appropriate while mantaining unneccessary tax breaks for rich corporations that have not been creating jobs for over 10 years now.

[innerpuppie]

09:03 AM on 05/24/2011

If the Dem wins and if I was a Republican, I think I'd be shaking in my boots because there will be more of this in 2012.

[ywcachieve]

02:26 PM on 05/24/2011

We have to made sure the Dems vote, in every single election. .

[ruthtruth]

08:53 AM on 05/24/2011

Let's hope tomorrow morning we will see the beginning of the end of the GOP/TP "s chances of screwing up the country any more and the rebuilding of the middle class. I will be praying a lot today.

[Gaylord P Farqua]

08:52 AM on 05/24/2011

If nothing else the GOP candidate is a walking talking caricature of a Stepford wife.

[kreichek12]

08:44 AM on 05/24/2011

I wonder if this will turn out like the special election in NY-23 (2009). The Republican candidate was a shoe-in to win, but the Tea Party didn't think she was conservative enough and ran their own candidate on the Conservative ticket with support from the likes of Sarah P and TimPaw. The Tea Party eventually got the Republican to quit the race. The situation was so bitter, the Republican endorsed the Democrat who went on to win! This was the first time since 1873 (not a typo -- 1873) that a Republican did not hold the seat,

So, will the Tea Party once again help a Democrat get elected in an otherwise strongly Republican district?

[Ed C Atlanta]

08:39 AM on 05/24/2011

Have been watching this race and it is unbelieable now that corwin ahs backtracked and is now trying to claim that she supports medicare,,,this ryan plan is going to cause a lot of trouble for the "no ideas and staunch supporters of an unpopular budget plan party",,,the gop has made their bed and now they want a do over,,sorry, but you guys voted for the plan once and now you have to pay for your over-reaching policy attempts,,,good luck at the polls today Ms. Hochul,,,,

[Querent]

09:30 AM on 05/24/2011

Claiming the Ryan plan "saves Medicare" is the only hope for Republicans in the coming elections. Unfortunately, the average US voter is probably dumb enough to fall for it.

[RonH1]

08:26 AM on 05/24/2011

Why in the world would average joe vote for a multimillionaire? Does Joe think this person has Joe's interest in mind? Does Joe think this person is concerned with the price of milk, bread, or gas? No. Joe's an idiot.

[informedconsent]

08:42 AM on 05/24/2011

I think that was made clear in 2008 - not only an idiot but also not the plumber he claimed to be.

[wildwmmn]

08:05 AM on 05/24/2011

Sure, until the republicans find an extra 7,000 "misplaced" votes hanging around somewhere. Ooops, just a tiny mistake, you know, human error and all that, totally innocent.

[informedconsent]

08:44 AM on 05/24/2011

Won't happen in this district - they have upgraded all of the computers to Commodore 64's modified by Diebold to ensure accurate results and a really great game of Pong.

[Kate Zeiss]

09:03 AM on 05/24/2011

Best laugh of the day . . . F&F

[buckbuck11]

08:05 AM on 05/24/2011

Voting was already a steady stream at 07:00 at my polling place in a very rural part of NY-26. Hopefully it will be a very good day for Kathy Hochul!

[kreichek12]

08:46 AM on 05/24/2011

I hope it is, too. Go Kathy!

[Querent]

09:33 AM on 05/24/2011

Good news. The higher the turnout, the better for Ms. Hochul,

[nico88]

08:00 AM on 05/24/2011

Newly elected Republican minions are not going to have a voice in tweaking anything. Lies, Lies and more Lies. Whatever it takes to get elected.

[noaxe397]

07:58 AM on 05/24/2011

Here is how the GOP will win with the Ryan plan.
 
first, we all agree the plan is an albatross around the GOP's neck and the Dems are enjoying a rare win in the "message" wars on this issue.
 
But, the Dems cannot compete with the GOP message machine.
 
Here's what the GOP will do to change the message (not the plan) to sell it to the voters:
 
First, they will allow those candidiates (like Corwin) to say initiallly, "It's a courageous first step to take care of a major problem and at least we have a solution on the table.  But I don't agree with everry aspect of it, especially eliminating Medicare." 
 
Note to Dems:  Look for the word "courage" to be a BIG winner in 2012, maybe more important than "government takeover of HC" was in 2010.
 
This gets the GOP candidiate out from between the rock and the hard place.
 
Then they will hammer on  the "courage" theme.
 
"Who will have the courage to tell the american people what they need to hear, that you can't have everything you want and Medicare is going broke without benefit cuts."
 
This frame  allows the GOP to appear to be leading from the rear, down 70-30 in polls (some 80-20) in terms of their position on eliminating medicare.
 
To a nation now so beaten down being told they can't have that once envisioned "American way of life,"  (defecits will destroy us, entitlements must be reformed, it's a global economy, the jobs are not coming back, etc. etc.) they WILL start to accept this new GOP like of attack.
 
Then, as the GOP solidifies its gains in Congress and picks up seats in the senate they can start to actually dismantle medicare.
 
Dems will once again whistle past the graveyard if they sit back smuggly believing (as the did in 2009 when NJ and VA governor races were lost) that the GOP can't win with their message.
 
Dems need to re-calibrate to understand it's not the policy that counts (otherwise, how could the Dems have gotten wiped out in 2010;  their policies worked). 
 
It's how you frame and deliver your message that determines if you will win.
 
The fact that NO ONE is talking about the recession anymore is proof that the GOP has already laid to rest the ghosts of Bush past.
 

[Novelist56]

08:09 AM on 05/24/2011

Repubs are done, through. When the Democrat wins this race watch what happens in 2012.

[mummblemouth]

08:14 AM on 05/24/2011

I don't know about that. They are, as noaxe points out, expert propagandists.

[noaxe397]

09:01 AM on 05/24/2011

How are Republicans "done?"

[VBH1622]

08:27 AM on 05/24/2011

Ii's more than that, it has been cast as Obama's economic meltdown!

As to Medicare, costs are the problem not the benefits themselves and the Ryan plan simply shifts the burden of those increasing costs onto the shoulders of retirees.

Prescription costs in this country are so far out if whack compared to the rest of the world it's outrageously laughable. This is what happens when corporations get to write the legislation so that they can maximize their profits without regard to the cost to the taxpayers.

[hopeisalive]

07:58 AM on 05/24/2011

Not exactly sure of calling this a "referendum" as this district is heavily Republican.

[Wallysmom]

07:15 AM on 05/24/2011

Knowing that they are going to get hammered if they continue on the slash Medicare/SS issue, watch Republican candidates, from state to Presidential campaigns, start the Friends of Israel rhetoric. Unfortunately, although the President was absolutely correct in his speech on Israel prior to the spoiled Netanyahu visit, he gave them ammo to use. It has already begun.

[arizonabay]

08:06 AM on 05/24/2011

Ahh... but this is where the bin Laden card can get used.

[informedconsent]

08:27 AM on 05/24/2011

Is that the one with the Joker on it? Or is that the Newt card.....