We're Still Months Away From Needing To Take Presidential Polling Seriously, History Suggests

John Sides and his blog The Monkey Cage were recently honored by The Week, who named Sides' poli-sci outpost the "Blog of the Year." It's well deserved, because of Sides' dedication to talking about politics in a way that relentlessly demystifies the process. (Click here, and add to your daily reading.) For instance, you may already hear some early hyperventilation over presidential polling results. You can, and should, continue to be amused by this! But, per Sides, you can stop taking it all that seriously.

Sides features the historical research of Temple University's Christopher Wlezien, who went back through over fifty years of presidential polling to prove something you probably already knew -- polls conducted more than 300 days out from an election are, strictly speaking, worthless. (Remember way back when a few weeks ago, when Donald Trump was "surging" in the polls? Ha, ha.)

Sides on the research: "They take all of the polls from up to 300 days before the presidential elections from 1956-2008 (except for 1968, which did not have polling that far back). They then forecast each presidential election outcome with the polls, starting 300 days before the election and continuing day-by-day until Election Eve. The figure below plots the trend in the r-squared from the forecasting equation. If polls were perfect predictors of the outcome, the r-squared would be 1.0. If the polls were pretty much useless predictors, the r-squared would be 0."

So, keep this in mind. It won't be until February of 2012 that polling starts getting halfway decent -- almost as if there will be some presidential primaries happening or something! And we're still a year away from polling beginning its upward climb into the realm of being "somewhat reliable predictors of the eventual outcome."

So what should you be paying attention to right now? In an earlier Q&A with the Columbia Journalism Review's Greg Marx, Sides explained: "I pay relatively little attention to early polls. I am watching presidential approval and changes in macro-economic indicators."

Speaking of, did you hear about how the "Latest Home Sale Prices Show Downward Spiral With 'No Relief In Sight'"? (Also, the nation is in the middle of a massive and under-reported unemployment crisis.)

RELATED:
Do Early Polls Predict Anything [The Monkey Cage]
Q&A: Poli-Sci Blogger John Sides [CJR]

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Comments

[Johnboy12]

10:51 PM on 05/31/2011

Does anyone notice that 'media' types depend on elections for material? They, as well as the comedians, are having a field day with the current Repug slate. Too bad they can't be out doing any real journalism.

We all know we have to wait until mid-2012 for them to give us the polls that tell us who to vote for if we want to be on the winner's side (NOT).

[Johnboy12]

10:48 PM on 05/31/2011

I can't believe it. I never thought there would be anyone who could disgrace the office of PotUS more than GWB, but just look at the picture of Trump and try to imagine the fluke of his getting elected. O.M.G., it could be worse!

[PublicCitizen21044]

04:17 PM on 05/31/2011

So, keep this in mind. It won't be until February of 2012 that polling starts getting halfway decent -- almost as if there will be some presidential primaries happening or something! And we're still a year away from polling beginning its upward climb into the realm of being "somewhat reliable predictors of the eventual outcome."

I hope the GOP does not read and appropriately respond or react to this article by lessening the field of GOP clown POTUS wannabes. For it is amusing and a it is great way to gauge what the next circus act will be and who the likely actor will be and what their current political strategy will be. This is the best reality show train wreck I have ever witnessed as a non thrill seeking social conservative independent thinker and voter who came from a family of old business owning, entrepreneurial class of Republicans.