Anthony Weiner Resigns: Special Election, Redistricting Will Decide New York House Seat

NEW YORK -- With U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner's humiliating exit from office, New York is likely to hold a special election sometime in the next few months to pick his successor, but voters probably shouldn't expect a bruising public contest over the right to go to Washington. The job might not even exist in 19 months.

Because of population shifts, New York state is slated to lose two House seats in 2013, and lawmakers in Albany will spend the next few years redrawing the boundaries of congressional districts in a highly politicized process that could, in theory, wipe Weiner's old territory in Queens and Brooklyn from the map.

Traditionally, lawmakers looking to butcher a district have turned to ones where there is no incumbent, or one with little seniority. That would seem to put the 9th Congressional District at risk for elimination, or at least a bigger overhaul of its borders than other districts in the state.

"The question then becomes, is it worth going for a seat that may not exist?" said Douglas Muzzio, a professor at Baruch College's School of Public Affairs.

That option still could present a good political stepping stone for a Democrat looking to move up the ranks in a highly Democratic city, said Matthew Hiltzik, a public relations specialist and political consultant.

"It's an opportunity to build name recognition, and be in a position to possibly stay in Congress if something unusual happens," he said.

But entering the race could be a tougher call for a GOP candidate, who, if victorious, would be almost certain to see his or her seat gerrymandered out of existence.

"You're not going to recruit a big star to win a seat that's not going to exist," Muzzio said.

The puzzle-piece nature of redistricting could mean substantial alterations in the borders of a number of congressional districts statewide. Conventional wisdom holds that lawmakers are likely to eliminate one seat in western New York, where the population has declined, and then one downstate seat likely to be held by a Democrat.

Registered Democrats in the district outnumber Republicans in the current 9th Congressional District by three to one, and while neither Barack Obama nor John Kerry had runaway victories there in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections (they both took 56 percent of the vote), other contests with lower turnout have a history of Democratic romps.

All this suggests that the Democratic nominee holds a big advantage, and, unlike in a regular election, voters will not get to choose who gets that spot on the ballot.

Because special elections are held on short notice, there are no party primaries. The candidates are picked instead by party leaders. In Weiner's district, that means the choice will effectively be made by U.S. Rep. Joseph Crowley, the party chairman in Queens County, and state Assemblyman Vito Lopez, the party chairman in Kings County.

Prospective candidates are expected to begin privately angling to get the nomination in the coming days, if they haven't started already. Some Democratic names being bandied about include City Councilman Mark Weprin, state Assembly members Melinda Katz and Rory Lancman, former City Councilman Eric Gioia, and, on the Republican side, City Councilman Eric Ulrich and Bob Turner, a retired Queens businessman who ran against Weiner in 2010.

The timetable for an election is uncertain.

Under state law, Gov. Andrew Cuomo could call for a special election at any time in the coming weeks or months. The rules would then require that the contest be held in no fewer than 70 days, but no more than 80 days – a window that would coincide nicely with an already-scheduled party primary in September.

A special election would be the latest in a string for the state. Last month in the Buffalo area, a Democrat beat a Republican in a race to succeed U.S. Rep. Chris Lee, who resigned after sending shirtless pictures of himself to a woman he met through Craigslist.

Democrat Bill Owens won a special election in November 2009 for the North Country seat vacated by Army Secretary John McHugh, a Republican.

Earlier that year, Democrat Scott Murphy won a race to succeed Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand after she was appointed to the U.S. Senate.

Comments

[Brer Orabbit]

12:30 PM on 06/19/2011

Fast comeback?

"Within hours after Anthony Weiner announced his resignation from Congress, former MSNBC gabber Keith Olbermann suggested he may hire the soon-to-be-former New York lawmaker for a talk show on former Vice President Al Gore's fledgling television network, Current TV. Olbermann, appearing on comedian Jimmy Fallon's late night television program Thursday night, was asked how long he thinks it would be before rival network CNN created a show for Weiner. "Well, you know, I've got a nine o'clock show that I am probably going to hire somebody for," Olbermann told Fallon, referring to the space immediately after his upcoming new show, Countdown with Keith Olbermann on Current TV. Fallon asked Olbermann if would hire Weiner. "Eliot Spitzer is doing okay on CNN at eight o'clock," Olbermann replied with a smile."

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20072106-503544.html#ixzz1Pjv6l8HE

In my post on 6/16/11 I suggested Weiner:

1. Become a Co-anchor on Spitzer's TV show.
2. Start a mental health care business that specialize­s in web-addict­ed megolmania­cal pols.
3. Move to another area of NY and run in 2012 against Barney Frank.
4. Become a contrarian contributo­r on the Glenn Beck radio program.
5. Perform simulated "Fruit of the Loom" magic tricks for Play Girl magazine.
6. Donate time to Time magazine as a medic gopher.
7. Get a job as a political or social commentato­r for the NYT, WP, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, Daily Kos, or HP.

BO

[Kome Chris-ukoko]

07:41 PM on 06/18/2011

http://socyberty.com/politics/gop-presidential-debate/

enjoy

[Venicelady]

08:36 AM on 06/18/2011

Only one day into his disgraced resignation, and I have heard that Weiner can plan a '"comeback" to regain his position down the road.

True, Weiner did not actually commit any crimes, but has shown that he has poor moral character. Not that he's much different from any other politician that has been found dallying in events of a sexual nature, e.g., Clinton, Vitter, Spitzer, Edwards, Schwarzenegger.....

Don't these people have any sense of SHAME? And, if these politicians can blatantly lie and try to cover up what they have done, what else are they capable of doing?

[garybarnes]

05:53 AM on 06/18/2011

Weiner is down but not out. From his attitude, his contrived tears during his admission of guilt, it is easy to conclude that he cares nothing about morals, like the rest of the democrats. I would like to have been a bug on the wall at the secret meeting he had with Pelosi and fellow socialists when they told him to get out.
www.identitynoise.com/blog

[yankhadenuf]

07:43 PM on 06/17/2011

Now that Weiner has set the standard for resignation, what say you Gingrich?

[Kome Chris-ukoko]

04:15 PM on 06/17/2011

while I do not condone his actions, I think people need to back off. If everyone had their secrets exposed, we would probably find worse. Like Bill Clinton had an affair as president and he did not resign. Yeah he made a mistake but in all honesty, the only people who should be talking are his constituents who voted him into office. If they still want him he should stay. If they don't, then they can elect someone else.

http://socyberty.com/politics/gop-presidential-debate/

great article.