WI-SD32 Recall: 56% Shilling (D), 42% Kapanke (PPP/Daily Kos 6/23-26)

PPP (D) / Daily Kos
6/23-26/11
Mode: Live telephone interviews
Daily Kos release

Wisconsin State Senate Districts

Senate District 32: Recall Election
56% Schilling (D), 42% Kapanke (R)
(1902 likely voters, 2.3% margin of error)

Senate District 18: Recall Election
50% Kind (D), 47% Hopper (R)
(1178 likely voters, 2.9% margin of error)

Senate District 10: Recall Election
50% Harsdorf (R), 45% Moore (D)
(1200 likely voters, 2.8% margin of error)

Comments

[Dave WI]

05:20 PM on 06/29/2011

Boy, they better hold these recalls quickly. Can't have any more stories like this coming out:
http://www.postcrescent.com/article/20110629/APC0101/110629072/Story-documents-Kaukauna-schools-project-1-5M-surplus-after-changes

"As changes to collective bargaining powers for public workers take effect today, the Kaukauna Area School District is poised to swing from a projected $400,000 budget shortfall next year to a $1.5 million surplus due to health care and retirement savings....

“These impacts will allow the district to hire additional teachers (and) reduce projected class sizes,” School Board President Todd Arnoldussen wrote in a statement Monday. "

SHAME SHAME SHAME

[John Sajdak]

10:57 AM on 06/30/2011

Although this is good news for one school district, this is also projected savings and not actual savings. I'd like them to do a follow up in a year to find out if the surplus is actually there. 357 teachers laid off in Milwaukee. Yeah, this is great news!

[Dave WI]

05:04 PM on 06/30/2011

Milwaukee's teachers declined to make concessions. They got their layoffs, as promised.

Wauanakee's teachers made concessions, they get to hire more teachers.

It's not exactly calculus.

[AaronTX]

06:30 PM on 06/30/2011

Essentially it looks like the teachers in that district took a significant hit in compensation. 18.4% of their compensation is going to health care and pension now.

[Dave WI]

04:52 PM on 06/29/2011

King, not Kind, vs Hopper.

Anyways, nothing too surprising in this poll. Kapanke was done from the day the petition was filed. I still contend the voters in Hopper's district are more upset with him leaving his wife for a staffer than the CB bill, but he's in trouble either way.

Harsdorf's opponent is a teacher who may have used her state email inappropriately. When faced with these allegations, she that she "didn't care". So that will go well.

[AaronTX]

04:02 PM on 06/29/2011

In any case it looks like the democrats will pick up seats in the state senate. In the case of Harsdorf, she is from a fairly conservative district and even she's in trouble.

[Lat1]

02:26 PM on 06/29/2011

I absolutely despise Scott Walker and his policies and it would be great to see these recalls happen just to rub his nose in it, but with that said I cannot support them. You don't get a do over in politics just because you don't like or agree with someone. The Democrats and Democrat leaning indy's decided to stay home in 2010 and Scott Walker is the consequence of their actions (or in-actions in this case). Representative democracy is at its very nature a contest of ideas and may the best vote getter for those ideas win.

[Field Marshall]

12:10 PM on 06/29/2011

Interesting. For all the hate directed towards the GOP by the union thugs in the state, the recalls 2 of the 3 key recalls are basically 50/50. Sabato said that these would have to be "overwhelming" if the Dems have a chance to get Walker next year. Doesn't look like that's so....

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

11:07 AM on 06/29/2011

LAT: In 3 of these races, all the Republicans are incumbents. 2 out of 3 of them the Democratic candidate leads.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

11:06 AM on 06/29/2011

I don't know why they can't simply recall the idiot at the top himself, Scott Walker? They should have a new election to keep him or elect someone else. Any Governor who thinks you've got a Koch brother and the phone and plays along with their corruption, should not be holding office. Women's health is under seige, healthcare is under seige, Union negotiating rights have already been taken away. They should seriously go after all the represenatives they can recall and bring in a new governor. Wisconsin is better than that.

[dpearl]

11:23 AM on 06/29/2011

Recall petitions regarding Governor Walker would require many more signatures than the petitions for state senators and the recall organizers did not have the time available to get those before the deadline. They intend to circulate those for next year's cycle.

[StatsNpolls1]

11:57 AM on 06/29/2011

Speaking of women's health under siege. Not to mention food for the starving under siege.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/28/illinois-borrowing-money-_n_886126.html

Headline there is deceitful, since the "borrowed" does not have to be repaid, under the law.

[dpearl]

12:31 PM on 06/29/2011

Okay - Here are my thoughts.

Your post was based on the premis that how people self-report about the way they voted in 2008 should line up with what actually happened in 2008. There are three reasons why this might not happen in an otherwise unbiased sample 1) younger voters who were ineligible in 2008 are now part of the voting population (and they replace some elderly voters who have since died or otherwise become incapable of voting and 2) people don't always tell the truth or don't recall how they voted or really didn't vote, and 3) sampling variability.

Of course because of sampling variability, you would need to show me that PPP was consistently off by a few points in the same direction over multiple polls (not just a couple as in your post). Getting past that hurdle - I notice that the people who said they don't know who they voted for in 2008 or did not vote for either Senator McCain or President Obama tended to support the Republican candidate in the two polls you cited (NM and FL). That would seem to balance out the small difference you mentioned (i.e. it is an indication that the first two reasons would not make the poll favor the President).

[Lat1]

10:49 AM on 06/29/2011

Dave,

Shed some light on this for me please. Are these the 3 Democrats that are looking to be recalled? Weren't there also 6 Republican's up for recall?

[dpearl]

11:20 AM on 06/29/2011

Altogether there are 9 Wisconsin state senators up for recall in the upcoming election. They are:
Robert Cowles (R. – Green Bay)
Alberta Darling (R. – River Hills)
Dave Hansen (D. – Green Bay)
Sheila Harsdorf (R. – River Falls)
Jim Holperin (D. – Conover)
Randy Hopper (R. – Fond du Lac)
Dan Kapanke (R. – La Crosse)
Luther Olsen (R. – Ripon)
Robert Wirch (D. – Pleasant Prairie)

The survey here deals with three of the Republicans. The Daily Kos/PPP promises to poll the others next.

[StatsNpolls1]

11:47 AM on 06/29/2011

DPearl, speaking of PPP, have you seen my post on their LV model in the NM Senate thread? It's about 5 polls below this one. I'd like to hear your opinion, if any. Thanks.

[Dave WI]

04:50 PM on 06/29/2011

I'm guessing PPP or the DK wanted the 3 most vulnerable R districts polled. Either that or they are releasing the polls in dribs and drabs.